tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post6539460174414120857..comments2024-03-28T07:50:06.102-04:00Comments on Mike Norman Economics: My not so small influence on policy :)mike normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-44614823954935629972011-02-27T05:44:27.315-05:002011-02-27T05:44:27.315-05:00Mike " what artificial lending standards are ...Mike " what artificial lending standards are you talking about" Norman is influencing the US government economic policies? <br />That alone makes me sick in my stomach!ORIMONEYhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12065666299511202648noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-78653608713222563372011-02-25T00:22:54.833-05:002011-02-25T00:22:54.833-05:00great job Mike!!! That is really HUGE!! I mean you...great job Mike!!! That is really HUGE!! I mean you don't get any bigger than indirectly effecting the darn US President's state of the Union address!!! Get this man a beer!!! on the house mate!!! <br /><br />Matt, great video link you posted by billy blog on fiscal sustainability!!! wow!!! That guy is awesome. <br /><br />Beowulf, what do you mean by a "rate cap"? Do you mean a tsy rate bottom that cannot go below the fed funds rate? I don't understand why would you suggest a rate cap to control inflation? I thought fed funds rate hikes controlled inflation.<br /><br />I understand what you mean by a rate cap on bonds to control inflation as bonds usually track inflation, but why mention a rate cap now when tsy rates are so darn low? What good would it do now? I don't get it. What am I missing???<br /><br />Cheers!!Mariohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00905402431684735610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-36609933643546686202011-02-21T22:19:06.271-05:002011-02-21T22:19:06.271-05:00Bob,
Paul Krugman wrote about Billion Prices Proj...Bob, <br />Paul Krugman wrote about Billion Prices Project the other day. It tracks goods but not services (CPI tracks both).<br />http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/18/the-billion-price-index/<br /><br />Matt,<br />Interest rates are at a rock bottom low, 3 month Treasuries were at 0.09% today, (isn't it odd that the overnight rate, 0.25%, is actually higher than 3 month?). Its a pity that Tsy doesn't make hay while the Sun shines by ceasing sale of Treasuries longer than 3 months and getting either FRB or Congress to agree to a rate cap. There must be a half dozen better ways to control inflation that don't involve slowly asphyxiating the economy with gradual interest rate hikes. There's no indication Tsy or Fed has studied any of them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-57411652573784345422011-02-19T07:48:16.202-05:002011-02-19T07:48:16.202-05:00Bob,
This subject of inflation also gives me paus...Bob,<br /><br />This subject of inflation also gives me pause.<br /><br />I've come to the point that I think I do not believe in inflation. I do believe in price fluctuations, or 'price instability'.<br /><br />Freidman once said "inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon" . Now this may have been true decades ago when Freidman said it, when the US was tied to a gold standard, but it has no basis today under our free floating, non-convertable regime.<br /><br />Right now, property prices have collapsed, wages are stagnant. The only thing that is causing our recent price run ups in certain commodities is the oil cartel, and speculative demand.<br /><br />Both of these forces should be attacked. Instead of a policy interest rate increase, which will just increase fiscal transfers thru the interest income channel and add fuel to the fire, we should be encouraging vehicular fuel choice/substitution to attack the oil cartel, and put Mike Norman in as the CFTC chairman to finally kick these MFing speculators out of the commodities markets once and for all.<br /><br />Bob, at the following link, if you go to the second video at the 14:00 mark, Mosler and Mitchell give one of the best explanations of so-called "inflation" Ive seen that acknowledges the current monetary arrangements:<br /><br />link_http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=12089#more-12089<br /><br />But that said, you are right, what Ive typed here does not mean that the idiot Fed will not raise soon! We may have to watch out for that soon..... the way that the Fed thinks if the OPEC people raise then your adjustable rate mortgage also has to go up!?!??! <br /><br />As a trained engineer, I know this cannot make sense to you?Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-17827739052078768862011-02-18T23:07:56.642-05:002011-02-18T23:07:56.642-05:00Sorry about my mistatement of items tracked, on li...Sorry about my mistatement of items tracked, on line retailers tracked and countries tracked. But check out the charts. The 365 day inflation on the MIT website for the US is 2.57% and monthly is .81%<br />According to the website the curves represent mostly price changes with some wage changes included. But I would think this chart is more reliable than the govt manual statistics. The monthly curve is accelerating. Bernanke will have to tighten very soon or he will be too late according to the monthly curve.Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05648774595974793332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-34601996339800045572011-02-18T22:19:23.514-05:002011-02-18T22:19:23.514-05:00I found the website,
It is called " The Billi...I found the website,<br />It is called " The Billion Prices Project @ MIT".<br /><br />The Billion Prices Project is an academic initiative that collects prices from hundreds of online retailers around the world on a daily basis to conduct economic research. We currently monitor daily price fluctuations of ~5 million items sold by ~300 online retailers in more than 70 countries.<br /><br />This webpage showcases examples of average inflation indexes that we created to illustrate the type of statistical work that can be done with this type of data. Our team is currently working on developing econometric models that leverage the data to forecast future trends and conduct economic research.Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05648774595974793332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-82634026206813363062011-02-18T22:08:32.490-05:002011-02-18T22:08:32.490-05:00I have a question for someone versed in economics,...I have a question for someone versed in economics, as I am just an engineer, and I know what I know by learning from Mike Norman.<br /><br />My question is how is the shadow economy (black market- off the books workers with no reported income)figured into the GDP by the govt. I read an article in Barrons several years ago that stated as much as 54% of the US GDP is off the books income. How does the fed calculate the shadow GDP?<br /><br />Also MIT has a fantastic calcuation of over 7 million products ordered on the internet in a few hundred countrie in real time. According to this calculation CPI is 13.0%. Does anyone know the name of this report I heard about it today on a talk radio show. thanks to everyone on this website for their valuable contributions.Bobhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05648774595974793332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-60609012141636566472011-02-18T12:12:01.278-05:002011-02-18T12:12:01.278-05:00The efficient storage of electricity would be an i...The efficient storage of electricity would be an important technological advance. Batteries/fuel cells have the potential to eclipse the gasoline engine and change the world in other important ways.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-80061453209274560442011-02-18T11:55:30.071-05:002011-02-18T11:55:30.071-05:00WWS,
I expect there will be economies of scale as...WWS,<br /><br />I expect there will be economies of scale as production grows and there are more models to choose from. Ultimately my choice will be guided by affordability and price.<br /><br />I don't know if deflation is bad for an economy. Some say it is. On the other hand if purchasing power is continually increasing then consumption should increase as your discretionary dollars go further. Once consumption reaches real resource limits, prices would stop falling.<br /><br />But we're not seeing productivity gains being passed to the consumer or currency debasement. Purchasing power has been eroded by falling wages, personal debt and unemployment. Supply exceeds demand, sales are flat, and resources are sitting idle.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-82305452162032145002011-02-18T04:57:06.583-05:002011-02-18T04:57:06.583-05:00Here :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_...Here :<br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_by_U.S._presidential_terms<br /><br />National debt by US Presidential terms - looks like the only real players in reducing the debt were Carter and Clinton and they were in office for 12 years total.<br /><br />Reagan, Bush I and Bush II were in office for 20 years and all red ink - deficit and debt went UP with them.<br /><br />??? where's the chicken little deficit hawk ?googleheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14459089745473598235noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-68548407466205333742011-02-18T04:38:07.870-05:002011-02-18T04:38:07.870-05:00The Dept of Energy and the National Science Founda...The Dept of Energy and the National Science Foundation all provide funding for university research, spin off, and incubation for a gazzillion technologies in all industries and disciplines.<br /><br />So when Austrian libertarian or even dancing fool republicans say the Department of Education is unconstitutional, then it is no doubt that the subsidies rant thing is a bogus hoot.<br /><br />Austrian or republican conservatism will not re-invest in education and research in the free market entities, so who is the power hitter that really delivers as for research and development ?<br /><br />government spending.<br /><br />name one thing that hasn't been developed with help from government. even facebook was from a college campus rife with government spending.googleheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14459089745473598235noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-79903702679312220752011-02-17T20:51:47.074-05:002011-02-17T20:51:47.074-05:00Mike,
The reason that electric cars need subsidie...Mike,<br /><br />The reason that electric cars need subsidies is because they are cost ineffiecient given the current state of technology and available resources for the mass production of electric batteries. I don't recall the automobile industry needing subsidies to replace the horse and buggy, nor do I recall the personal computer requiring a subsidy to replace the typewriter.<br /><br />Electric cars use lithium-ion batteries. A big problem is that total world reserves of lithium are just north of 6.2 million tons (base reserves are about 11 million tons). That's just fine so long as a few million people use E.V.'s, but there is no way that the known reserves of lithium can support tens of millions of users much less hundreds of millions of drivers.<br /><br />Much of the enthusiasm for E.V.'s is due to the purported environmental benefits of these vehicles. But there are harmful effects of mining greatly increased levels of lead, zinc, arsenic, cadmium, and lithium required for the production of electric batteries. What happens when more of these metals inevitably end up in the groundwater? What about the harmful effects of much increased mining?<br /><br />An incredible amount of energy and water are used to heat and cool metals in the prodcution of these batteries during processing. The processing of these metals will create harmful pollutants into the air through emissions.<br /><br />Production of these batteries also require a great deal of energy (much of it carbon-based energy), and waste byproducts of this manufacturing creates additional environmental hazards.<br /><br />Finally, there is the cost of replacing the battery and the disposal of it. A lithium-ion battery has a life expectancy of three years. The cost of replacement batteries is estimated to be $8,000! (can you afford that Laura?).<br /><br />I hope I am wrong about E.V.'s, but they have tended to be impractical and cost inefficent. They have failed the market test again and again. On the bright side, this inflationary depression may solve many of our problems though. I foresee many more Americans peddling bicycles in the near future. Come to think of it, that may also solve our country's obesity problem as well :)welfarewarfare statehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18188909985707356639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-9861194249772177052011-02-17T20:26:53.306-05:002011-02-17T20:26:53.306-05:00Department of Energy has made so many technologica...Department of Energy has made so many technological advances, your free market is still sucking on teets of Government spending.<br /><br />ALL MONEY EMANATES FROM THE GOVERNMENT.<br /><br />Probably according to some folks then DOE and DOeducation are both unconstitutional !googleheimhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14459089745473598235noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-13188354593805305232011-02-17T19:46:35.320-05:002011-02-17T19:46:35.320-05:00Laura,
I totally agree about the system being c...Laura, <br /><br /> I totally agree about the system being corrupt. Politicians make me think of all those self important know-it-alls who ran for student council in high school. (My apologies if any of you were one of those) But those are the people we choose to run our government. <br />By the way, government spending for infrastructure is one thing, but electric cars belong in the private sector free market. Although I would support funding R&D for battery technology. Do I sound squishy or what?Chewituphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05912166063718393059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-19453123106089086302011-02-17T17:00:55.794-05:002011-02-17T17:00:55.794-05:00WWS
You said...
"By the way, are you aware ...WWS<br /><br />You said...<br /><br />"By the way, are you aware tht the first electric car was debuted at the turn of the 20th century? How's that worked out?"<br /><br />Are you serious?? <br /><br />Electric cars depend on the delivery of electic power to the motor and it obviously has to be portable, which means some type of battery. <br /><br />Are you really trying to make a comparison between the battery technology today and that which existed around the turn of the 20th century?mike normanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-68966306682180346572011-02-17T16:26:04.188-05:002011-02-17T16:26:04.188-05:00Laura,
Don't be so certain about electric car...Laura,<br /><br />Don't be so certain about electric cars going down in price. By the way, are you aware tht the first electric car was debuted at the turn of the 20th century? How's that worked out? Everything is going to go up in dollar terms--even electronics soon enough.<br /><br />You may make that decision but many do not even when they expect prices to fall by 40% or more in the next two years. It is usually only electronics that go down that much over a short period anyway. <br /><br />In a free market in money prices would drop to reflect productivity gains which would probably be around 1-2% annualy (accepting electronics). That amount of "deflation expectation" isn't going to stop anyone from delaying a purchase even for luxuries. Even a 3-5% annual deflation expectation wouldn't stop teh vast majority of people from purchasing what they think they can afford in the present.welfarewarfare statehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18188909985707356639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-65815276738846773142011-02-17T15:39:55.580-05:002011-02-17T15:39:55.580-05:00Chewitup,
The Republican track record is to ignor...Chewitup,<br /><br />The Republican track record is to ignore deficits once they are in power. Cutting taxes for the rich and spending more on the military is there <i>raison d'etre</i>. They will use whatever fringe groups they need to gather enough votes to get elected.<br /><br />We have bad government policy because the political system is corrupt. The needs of a majority of the electorate do not matter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-57800245896135568202011-02-17T15:28:53.344-05:002011-02-17T15:28:53.344-05:00WWS,
The price of electric vehicles will go down....WWS,<br /><br />The price of electric vehicles will go down. I am certain of it. There will also be more models to choose from, and infrastructure to support them.<br /><br />If I did not believe this, then there would be no point in delaying purchase of a Nissan Leaf.<br /><br />Someday I may get an iPod or whatever. I'm not willing to pay a premium just to have those gadgets <i>now</i>. Most consumers are aware of this.<br /><br />From what I have read, productivity gains have gone into the pockets of owners rather than be reflected as wage gains. Yet I cannot say from personal experience that I'm receiving lower wages and paying higher prices than I otherwise would be.<br /><br />Austrians, Socialists, etc. all claim that our lives would have been immeasurably better if only we had followed their proscriptions. Sorry, but I don't buy it. Show me objective evidence, please.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-64962915094328138252011-02-17T14:52:54.258-05:002011-02-17T14:52:54.258-05:00Warren often says,"depending on your politics...Warren often says,"depending on your politics" when offering solutions. Generally speaking, I don't think the Tea Party mantra of smaller government is so bad, when referring to less bureaucracy and interference. One side likes to spend, the other prefers tax cuts. If the powers that be admitted to the facts, the middle 67% of the political bell curve could be accommodated. Those immediately left and right of center agree with each other a lot more than they think they do. Nothing will make the fringes happy. The trouble is, they make the most noise.Chewituphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05912166063718393059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-35062777142838232232011-02-17T13:50:16.941-05:002011-02-17T13:50:16.941-05:00Laura,
People expect consumer electonics to fall,...Laura,<br /><br />People expect consumer electonics to fall, but most people don't wait do they? Many people don't wait two or three years for plasma t.v.'s to fall in price if they can afford them. People tend ot buy what they can afford even if there is an expectation of falling prices. I notice people lining up the night before when the latest iPhone is released. The same for the latest game consoles and on and on. The assumption of "deflation expectations" is a fallacy in the real world. Consumer actions refute it.welfarewarfare statehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18188909985707356639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-83832631859419083492011-02-17T13:43:39.687-05:002011-02-17T13:43:39.687-05:00Mike,
Comsumer elctronics do tend to go down beca...Mike,<br /><br />Comsumer elctronics do tend to go down because the incredible efficiency gains in that still infant sector manage to compensate and then some for monetary debasement. They would be lower still if not for debasement. The average individual has seen his standard of living drop over the last 20 years.<br /><br />I think there is a misunderstanding in the subjective nature of value which Austrians focuses on and the neo-liberal school does not.<br /><br />See: http//mises.org/daily/2231 for an explanation.<br /><br />Matt, I'll take a look at that link later this evening.welfarewarfare statehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18188909985707356639noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-53079037709424401482011-02-17T10:58:24.205-05:002011-02-17T10:58:24.205-05:00Alan:
LOL!!! That would be awesome!!!Alan:<br /><br />LOL!!! That would be awesome!!!mike normanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-40164918753033611012011-02-17T09:20:58.511-05:002011-02-17T09:20:58.511-05:00I'm looking forward to the day in the very nea...I'm looking forward to the day in the very near future when Obama or Biden get this smarmy canary-ate-the-cat look on their face after being asked the dumbest question a TeapubliKKKonartist could ask and respond with something flippant like "you abominable silly deficit terrorist, you don't understand America's exceptional monetary sovereignty nor the power thereof...geez Louise, what part of American sovereignty don't you understand? I mean, it's a big effin' deal!" and then say "yes, next question?"Alan Avanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12359658642926774034noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-3450553797332327592011-02-17T07:41:56.352-05:002011-02-17T07:41:56.352-05:00WWS,
Take a look at the second video at the below...WWS,<br /><br />Take a look at the second video at the below link at the 14:00 mark to see an explanation of "inflation" within a non-convertable monetary regime.<br /><br />link_http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=12089#more-12089<br /><br />This is how it works today. Again, I realize it would be different if we were still on a convertable regime, but we are not.<br /><br />Resp,Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-52132297210700740282011-02-17T05:52:27.784-05:002011-02-17T05:52:27.784-05:00The days when a litre of gasoline cost about the s...The days when a litre of gasoline cost about the same as a litre of bottled water are over, it would seem. Should I view this and other price changes as evidence of currency debasement?<br />Meanwhile I'm considering purchasing an electric vehicle, while waiting for these vehicles to become more affordable. Does this mean I have an expectation of deflation and behaving accordingly?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com