tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post8478184594918996341..comments2024-03-29T09:25:57.035-04:00Comments on Mike Norman Economics: Budget Freezes, Spending Cuts Possible Says White Housemike normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-54350233866330006952009-11-17T18:49:34.873-05:002009-11-17T18:49:34.873-05:00TB,
"I" and "C" can roll on f...TB,<br /><br />"I" and "C" can roll on for a while if bank lending resumes, which may be happening. Household financial obligations ratio has come down meaning that households can take on more debt for the time being. If job growth comes into the mix the recovery can be sustained even longer, at least until the point where fiscal drag (falling "G") and "NE" tip the scales in the other direction.mike normanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-49966273089109662582009-11-16T11:48:43.420-05:002009-11-16T11:48:43.420-05:00TB,
Yes they all look bad, now including the G.
Ch...TB,<br />Yes they all look bad, now including the G.<br />Check your take on the I, my view: just because stock and bond prices (financial assets) go up, I dont think it is given that I increases. Only if the companies say for instance increase inventories, or buy new plant and equipment, or vehicles, etc. (ie real assets) would I increase.<br /><br />Also related to C/G, another thing I heard is that the COLAs for Social Security and Medicare are going to be near Zero% in January 2010, from about a 5% increase this past january.Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-23060035841314136492009-11-16T10:23:17.127-05:002009-11-16T10:23:17.127-05:00All the talk of recovery seems debunked. If you l...All the talk of recovery seems debunked. If you look at Mike's formula C,I,E, and G: First C, consumer spending: Retail sales sales tax collections have been coming in lower, not higher. (http://activerain.com/blogsview/1329785/recession-over-state-sales-tax-receipts-still-down-where-s-the-spending-). And since states get most of their revenue from Sales Tax, they too are trimming budgets. The Pew center projection for state budgets shows a whopping FY 2010 shortfall of as high as 49% but an average in the 20% range. (http://downloads.pewcenteronthestates.org/Beyond_California_Appendix.pdf). And the Federal Government is going to freeze budgets according to Mike. There goes G's contribution to Y. As always the E is once again more negative. Not surprisingly the trade deficit swelled last month as Central Banks propped up the values of their currencies relative to the dollar. (http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/11/13/septembers-u-s-trade-deficit-jumps-to-36-5-billion-but-expor/) So all that remains on the upside is I, investment by industry. By all accounts the stock market and bond market have been rising rapidly and are providing money to industry at a break-neck pace so they can begin investing. Industry has a lot of work to do to pull us up up and away.Ryan Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04815033054435303399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-17166482645097562862009-11-16T09:04:29.325-05:002009-11-16T09:04:29.325-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-20540581750838503372009-11-16T09:04:29.021-05:002009-11-16T09:04:29.021-05:00MA,
They seemed to be pre-occupied with deficit re...MA,<br />They seemed to be pre-occupied with deficit reduction.<br /><br />It's hard to tell what the fiscal fallout may be, it could be that the 5% cut is only for discretionary programs, and overall entitlements will still increase for instance. the article also says tax increases are on the table, etc...I hope it was just more hot air!Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-18291537158023809222009-11-14T15:00:05.584-05:002009-11-14T15:00:05.584-05:00It makes me wonder what a typical day at the offic...It makes me wonder what a typical day at the office looks like at the White House.MortgageAngelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02797341866990387426noreply@blogger.com