tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post915146871031470160..comments2024-03-29T07:30:30.121-04:00Comments on Mike Norman Economics: Bearish yen talk from the same guys that got everything else wrongmike normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-11538088971931763662012-11-30T02:07:13.901-05:002012-11-30T02:07:13.901-05:00The value of the yen or dollar or euro or whatever...The value of the yen or dollar or euro or whatever is based on the society that uses it. The Japanese are arguably the most hard working, community oriented, stable society in the world.etfguyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13459981417773918698noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-68582398550161546002012-11-29T18:11:40.814-05:002012-11-29T18:11:40.814-05:00peter schiff invites squawk box asia viewers to in...peter schiff invites squawk box asia viewers to invest with him in asia:<br /><br />http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USOzkcRaecgSchittReporthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12879402601140382328noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-20917937069814935362012-11-28T19:20:10.391-05:002012-11-28T19:20:10.391-05:00I think the Japanese issue is really interesting b...I think the Japanese issue is really interesting because so much of what's happened in Japan seems to invalidate the "traditional" economic theories .... e.g. I believe Japans credit rating is below Botswanas - big deal! And, at the same time, I sometimes wonder what the big problem actually is with Japan - their unemployment rate is around 4%, not bad at all!<br /><br />So, looking at the Yen, it seems to me that what drove its strength in the last 3 years was not just massive short covering but also the complete erosion of relatively higher interest rates in other regions. For that reason I can't see the Yen undergoing sustained relative weakening until relative interest rates are higher. That's unlikely considering current monetary thinking.JDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10617267664097324960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-65616944974093344032012-11-28T19:04:14.327-05:002012-11-28T19:04:14.327-05:00The only case I can make for shorting the Yen is i...The only case I can make for shorting the Yen is if Japan goes through with shutting down their nukes permanently and then has a big increase in the amount of imported energy. That would likely their balance of payments with the rest of the world.<br />I'm long Yen too as I figure the huge increase in speculative shorts recently will have to unwind shortly.Ryan Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04815033054435303399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-13797840899005445402012-11-28T18:25:40.934-05:002012-11-28T18:25:40.934-05:00So far everyone that has shorted the yen based on ...So far everyone that has shorted the yen based on this thinking has gotten whacked. I guess another group needs to learn a lesson the hard way.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-10319415630270902072012-11-28T18:07:02.417-05:002012-11-28T18:07:02.417-05:00"Merk has this notion that Japan needs to go ..."Merk has this notion that Japan needs to go looking around for investors to "finance" this trade deficit"<br /><br />I agree, but I think that what he means is if foreigners don't want to hold yen or JGBs etc, and sell them, the result will be depreciation of the yen, which he presumably thinks could be pretty sharp and severe.yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03233997168975370006noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-8103039309174813322012-11-28T18:02:49.849-05:002012-11-28T18:02:49.849-05:00the yen could fall if people sell it on a large en...the yen could fall if people sell it on a large enough scale. The question is a) why would they want to do that, and b) how far would it fall before it stabilises?<br />yhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03233997168975370006noreply@blogger.com