tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post2271297844992212434..comments2024-03-28T07:50:06.102-04:00Comments on Mike Norman Economics: Michael Wolff — Ringside With Steve Bannon at Trump Tower as the President-Elect's Strategist Plots "An Entirely New Political Movement" (Exclusive)mike normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comBlogger33125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-37069711537317794332016-11-20T12:05:48.293-05:002016-11-20T12:05:48.293-05:00I think the left became confused about solving the...I think the left became confused about solving the symptoms of the disease rather the disease itself. Inequality and collapse in finance happened because globalisation proceeded more quickly than labor could adjust. Given frailties of humans to move to new places, adapt and learn new things, new cultures, 30 or 40 years isn't long enough.<br /><br />Bringing up the labor force participation rate, bringing back wage growth above inflation rates is the real problem to solve to reduce inequality and souring financial commitments. The political neo-left would argue we will slow down the pace of change and pervert the course of markets, inevitable change, but that is sort of the point. Put equilibrium off for a decade or three.Ryan Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04815033054435303399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-28207774136138848602016-11-20T08:31:02.139-05:002016-11-20T08:31:02.139-05:00Tom they have had he conforming cap at $417k for 8...Tom they have had he conforming cap at $417k for 8 years... and are talking of lowering it....<br /><br />Second homes or investment properties forget it.... better have cash....<br /><br />Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-57557311558013999872016-11-19T23:46:06.272-05:002016-11-19T23:46:06.272-05:00Rag Rajan's "let them eat credit" th...Rag Rajan's "let them eat credit" thesis holds up after 6 years. Loose credit standards put a band aid on pervasive income inequality that left too few families in a position to buy a house under any sort of prudent mortgage system. It was easier to just give everyone a mortgage and make them feel rich than to have a painful political fight to redistribute a sizable chunk (whether by regulatory or tax policy) of producitvity gains since 1970s from high income (especially capital income) families to middle and low income families. Just describing the problem sounds like socialism, if not Marxism so no politician during Bush Administration and very few during the Obama Administration were willing to address the underlying issue. So now we have a more prudent morgage system and surprise surprise, too few families qualify for a home mortgage.<br /><br />Trump understood there was a problem and even if he hasn't quite grasped the scope of the economic problem (certainly trade/immigration policy is a big part of it but isn't everything), the fact he was the only candidate in the GOP primaries and, more astonishingly, the only candidate in the general who recognized there was a problem was enough for him to win the White House. It still blows my mind, Democrats didn't nominate Bernie Sanders. He was the only Democrat running (well, Jim Webb too) who was even playing on the same field as Trump.beowulfhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14987548132065830204noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-50406577394688387522016-11-19T21:13:32.316-05:002016-11-19T21:13:32.316-05:00Its dependent on what the govt will or what the go...<i>Its dependent on what the govt will or what the govt will let its fiscal agents lend you against housing....</i><br /><br />Government did not imposed limits on bank lending for housing either during the crisis nor is it doing so now. This can be tied to excessive lending against increasing value of collateral during the crisis, but not to tight credit standards now. Regulators are encouraging lending but they cannot force creditors to do so. <br /><br />This is the typical cycle of loose standards leading to a credit blowout and implosion, followed by a tightening of standards after the crash. This is the inverse of what should occur to promote stable growth.<br /><br />In principle government could intervene in this regard, but no one should hold their breath waiting for It. This would require a reversal of POV.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-14560207520127125082016-11-19T20:14:32.584-05:002016-11-19T20:14:32.584-05:00govt/banks start lending $1M against mobile homes ...govt/banks start lending $1M against mobile homes on Monday morning the price of a mobile home goes directly to $1M by lunch time....Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082502216984169113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-31004384885803047892016-11-19T20:06:36.984-05:002016-11-19T20:06:36.984-05:00"Housing is dependent on ordinary folks borro..."Housing is dependent on ordinary folks borrowing from banks."<br /><br />Its dependent on what the govt will or what the govt will let its fiscal agents lend you against housing....Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082502216984169113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-12880163647180104522016-11-19T17:26:41.032-05:002016-11-19T17:26:41.032-05:00But if you look at the Case-Shiller indexes
Hous...<i>But if you look at the Case-Shiller indexes </i><br /><br />Housing is dependent on ordinary folks borrowing from banks. That hasn't happened because credit standards are still tight. I know this from friends who have been in RE for years. Used to be that all that was required was a warm pulse. Now the scrutiny is tight and the requirements more stringent. In addition, many ordinary folks can't show the income and already have too high debt to income and debt to asset ratios.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-12552902913927160552016-11-19T16:57:39.673-05:002016-11-19T16:57:39.673-05:00“...we can look at man in order to seek to underst...<i>“...we can look at man in order to seek to understand God”</i><br /><br />Exactly. But everyone is too busy with their stock portfolio – because ‘reality’.<br /><br />When the Titanic went down, the band played on: - was that heroism, stoicism, rote active comprehensive learning, desperation, resignation - or our signature tune?<br /><br />We can look at a drop, but will that reveal to us the Ocean. You know that Michelangelo painting ‘Creation of Adam’ where man reaches up with his limp finger to touch the finger of GOD (old man with glowing eyes and grey flowing beard and hair)? Right there you have all the arrogance and ignorance of the human being, painted by a master artist. Showing no clue as to the distance or relation between the two; and no clue as to the nature of the Divine. And yet it is true we are a part of that Ocean and the Ocean is within the drop.<br /><br />Prem started talking about ‘peace’ within at his father’s meetings at the age of four – addressing with absolute confidence thousands of people. Think about what we were doing at the age of four. Here he is in an 11min. interview on the Lite Breakfast Show explaining how it was: <a href="https://www.timelesstoday.com/the-lite-breakfast-with-prem-rawat/" rel="nofollow">The Lite Breakfast with Prem Rawat</a><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-32285608915411745472016-11-19T16:33:37.187-05:002016-11-19T16:33:37.187-05:00But if you look at the Case-Shiller indexes they s...But if you look at the Case-Shiller indexes they still havent reached their pre-GFC levels and we have been at ZIRP for 8 years...<br /><br />If it was interest rates alone, then they should have immediately shot back up once the Fed went to 0... they didnt...<br /><br />However, flows have increased over the same time frame substantially and these prices are working their way back up with the flows as the interest rates have remained static....<br /><br />Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11082502216984169113noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-87749623767490634312016-11-19T15:38:40.174-05:002016-11-19T15:38:40.174-05:00The flow is from leverage that is light to carry a...The flow is from leverage that is light to carry at low rates. Equities are margin driven, for example.<br /><br />The Fed actually planned on increasing the "wealth effect" this way and admitted it. The "wealth effect" is not spill over into increased spending based on "animal spirits" as the Fed had expected.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-34112886056233563382016-11-19T15:05:41.279-05:002016-11-19T15:05:41.279-05:00This is the equation:
PV = C/(1 + i)^n
Where C i...This is the equation:<br /><br />PV = C/(1 + i)^n<br /><br />Where C is future value, i is the RATE of return, and n is the periods...<br /><br />PV of something worth C at Zero rate one year from now is C/(1+0)^1 = C so its doesnt go up just based on a zero rate... there still has to be a non-zero flow associated... <br /><br />Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-66458377612848063182016-11-19T14:45:02.482-05:002016-11-19T14:45:02.482-05:00Well he is of course wrong in that asset values wi...Well he is of course wrong in that asset values will not increase without an associated USD flow (rate) tied to the asset to discount to PV... Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-45334757768455416682016-11-19T14:15:57.254-05:002016-11-19T14:15:57.254-05:00I think he was confused, Matt. He thinks "the...<i>I think he was confused, Matt. He thinks "they should be higher" AND he thought lower rates "helped Hillary". These two positions seem at odds with each other.</i><br /><br />I think he gets that low rates are stimulative and therefore help the party in power. His criticism of low rates is that they did not translated into economic stimulus as assumed but rather into financial stimulus, raising asset values without creating jobs.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-64578698981131730152016-11-19T13:43:14.680-05:002016-11-19T13:43:14.680-05:00Six that was before the election...
Conventional ...Six that was before the election...<br /><br />Conventional wisdom is that a better economy helps the incumbent party....<br /><br />So Trump was implying via the 0 rates (to him) the Fed was trying to boost Democrat Hillary...<br /><br />Now that he won the election he wil just reverse field and go the other way....Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-84780646713567720172016-11-19T13:06:20.650-05:002016-11-19T13:06:20.650-05:00Bob even within baseball (or more broadly sports.....Bob even within baseball (or more broadly sports...) there are those who seek to teach/coach via rote methods vs. those who apply active methods...<br /><br />In baseball look at all the shifts they are putting on first with LH batters and now even increasingly with RH batters, and some will say, "well just hit it the other way" and then you see the players seemingly unable to do this...<br /><br />Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-59739281528458375512016-11-19T12:54:48.333-05:002016-11-19T12:54:48.333-05:00"Tom the only thing Trump has said about rate..."Tom the only thing Trump has said about rates is that he thinks they should be higher... he was chastising the Fed for helping Hillary by keeping rates low for so long..."<br /><br />I think he was confused, Matt. He thinks "they should be higher" AND he thought lower rates "helped Hillary". These two positions seem at odds with each other. Sixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10756430577510633914noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-87891533440709387522016-11-19T12:31:35.870-05:002016-11-19T12:31:35.870-05:00It's like reading a book about baseball and cl...It's like reading a book about baseball and claiming you're a baseball player.Peter Panhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09473311771939167712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-43695288930740422752016-11-19T12:29:53.223-05:002016-11-19T12:29:53.223-05:00"realize experientially "
That might be..."realize experientially "<br /><br />That might be characterized in methodology as 'active learning' type method Tom, as opposed to a 'rote learning' type method Tom...<br /><br />I think it is also important to understand these different methodologies and when/to what purpose they are being applied...Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-25208661424156504512016-11-19T11:27:21.929-05:002016-11-19T11:27:21.929-05:00We're in a way the definition not something to...<i>We're in a way the definition not something to define...</i><br /><br />The purpose of life is to realize experientially (and not just understand) the import of, "Man is created in the image and likeness of God," which is a summary of perennial wisdom in a nutshell. This realization is not found by either the senses or the mind, although both are preliminary means for unfolding it through "knowledge of the heart."Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-21134486491206120552016-11-19T11:14:36.932-05:002016-11-19T11:14:36.932-05:00I think it's cute y'all think this is the ...<i>I think it's cute y'all think this is the end of "identity" politics. After 200,000 years, humans have decided to give up on the various forms of tribalism?</i><br /><br />It's a change on the focus of tribalism, not an end of tribalism. Class warfare is 100% tribalism.Ignaciohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16082008115484199316noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-34302444574336304642016-11-19T09:11:55.720-05:002016-11-19T09:11:55.720-05:00"If the Fed doesn't toe the Trump mark,&q..."If the Fed doesn't toe the Trump mark,"<br /><br />Tom the only thing Trump has said about rates is that he thinks they should be higher... he was chastising the Fed for helping Hillary by keeping rates low for so long...<br /><br />I dont know how much cred we can give this interview with Bannon here but from this it doesnt sound like they are going to be very measured...<br /><br />This was just like Rummy's DoD in the GWOT/Iraq redux.... created huge run ups in material prices and labor which were immediately ratified by OFHEO property prices were going up like crazy... everybody was high five-ing ...<br /><br />Much more savings out there at this time though (morons "debt to gdp!" higher) ... leading flow from Interest Income is in a position to be much higher as a % of what all is going on...Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-19970789815797571912016-11-19T08:52:22.195-05:002016-11-19T08:52:22.195-05:00"It is because we have exactly no clue as to ..."It is because we have exactly no clue as to what a human being is."<br /><br />jr consider it is intended to work the other way, iow we can look at man in order to seek to understand God...<br /><br />"For a man, indeed, ought not to be covering his head, being inherently the image and glory of God" 1 Cor<br /><br />We're in a way the definition not something to define...Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-67858118373489573552016-11-19T06:10:50.649-05:002016-11-19T06:10:50.649-05:00This comment has been removed by the author.Ryan Harrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04815033054435303399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-53251221722221079512016-11-19T01:05:32.048-05:002016-11-19T01:05:32.048-05:00When Obama took office he had a change to secure f...When Obama took office he had a change to secure for the Democrats another fifty years of office as did FDR. But, instead of becoming an FDR Obama played to Wall Street. Now Trump has the opportunity that Obama had and I think that he will do a better job because I don't think that he is a liar like Obama. And Bannon is right to go after the disgusting, disgraced media. It needs to broken up.GLHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02791463748430739099noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-77927516951116561832016-11-18T23:44:56.059-05:002016-11-18T23:44:56.059-05:00For this Canadian, these events are pure schadenfr...For this Canadian, these events are pure schadenfreude.Peter Panhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09473311771939167712noreply@blogger.com