tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post234788083941045462..comments2024-03-29T02:19:19.866-04:00Comments on Mike Norman Economics: Edward Harrison — The potential for military confrontation due to Trump’s foreign policymike normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comBlogger37125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-67357000022716095412017-01-14T11:35:03.429-05:002017-01-14T11:35:03.429-05:00Correction: In "Conversely, most of the analy...Correction: In "Conversely, most of the analysis I am saying"…"saying" should be "seeing."Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-41166390087354220142017-01-14T11:21:49.044-05:002017-01-14T11:21:49.044-05:00The world is going through a huge transformation n...The world is going through a huge transformation now, one that present immense opportunity as the developing world catches up with the developed world and huge challenges as we enter a new globalized civilization that conflicts with nationalism and tribalism.<br /><br />On one hand, Trump can be seen as a reactionary (rigid) force in this dialectic. On the other, with his focus on building a better world he can viewed as a radical (flexible) force.<br /><br />In his philosophy of achieving ideal society, Maharishi Mahesh Yogi elaborated on the process of developmental or evolutionary change in general in terms of "five fundamentals of progress" — stability, adaptability, integration, purification and growth. <br /><br />Stability is provided in political change by reactionaries, who emphasize tradition and the status quo. <br /><br />Adaptability is provided by radicals, who emphasize experiment and exploring alternatives. <br /><br />The center integrates these two opposing forces into a compromise that balances the two forces to some specific degree depending on circumstances, which is adopted through the political process. <br /><br />If this process driven by pruning aspects of past behavior and institutional arrangements in deemed in need of reform, then this process leads to growth to the degree that the new approach is effective.<br /><br />Stability and adaptability are the dialectical forces. Integration and purification are the process. Growth is the outcome.<br /><br />Obviously, the key to progress is purification. The old must die for the new to be born. Without reform, change is just more of the same dressed up differently. <br /><br />The good news is that populism is about reform. The bad news for the left is that Trump represents a variety of populism of the right and for the traditional right, too, since it is heavily oriented toward the alt-right. <br /><br />But this was the choice of the center that determines elections in a democratic republic.<br /><br />So the best course now from the POV of analysis is to leave one's preconceptions and preferences aside and view what is unfolding as objectively as possible regardless of whether one likes it.<br /><br />This process has deep ramifications not only for domestic politics but geopolitics, economics and finance. It is not possible to do high quality analysis in any of these areas independently of the others since this constitutes an interactive system in which each influences all to some degree.<br /><br />Conversely, most of the analysis I am saying is just a projection of the authors' cognitive-affective bias — normative rather than descriptive. There is also a volitional bias since much that is written is performative, designed to persuade readers to change behavior and take action.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-32554976561921400712017-01-14T08:49:54.795-05:002017-01-14T08:49:54.795-05:00John,
FD: #1, I think everybody other than the fe...John,<br /><br />FD: #1, I think everybody other than the few of us are either not qualified, or are being made stupid... the operative scripture is "those who are retaining the truth in injustice... alleging themselves to be wise, are being made stupid..." Rom 1<br /><br />That said, I dont think Trump has a very detailed plan .. I think he operates on strict but some simple and effective principles when it comes to business/material systems administration... and he is disciplined... like he always wears the same clothes....<br /><br />Revising the entire Acqusition Strategy for US heatlhcare of over 300m people is way more complex than renovating the clubhouse at Doral, the F-35 program is way more complicated than renovating the old Post Office pavilion in DC into a small hotel ... so this is not going to be like falling off a log for him or anybody.... especially if anybody thinks "we're out of money!"...<br /><br />I only think it will get a bit better from a material perspective under Trump as he and his people are material systems experts... as opposed to the Obama people who were more human focused and not qualified from a material systems perspective and many there being made stupid too...<br /><br />We of course would do better than either Trump or Obama admins but we are not in any position of authority.... so we have to just sit back and watch... I think this might be what is really going on ie we have to go thru this with possession of the key knowledge and truth but no authority to apply it... at least for now...<br /><br />Its a very unique experience for the few of us there are... I think we are in some way learning valuable lessons from this experience itself... tho dont ask me what they are....Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-58011518928503210242017-01-14T02:59:13.139-05:002017-01-14T02:59:13.139-05:00PCR is "old school", and is evaluating T...PCR is "old school", and is evaluating Tillerson's statements at face value. He admits that it could be a ploy. He states that he did not play such games during his confirmation hearings.<br /><br />All the bases are covered. I'm a cynic, so I expect the worst.<br /><br /><i><b>Wait and see.</b></i> We keep saying it, yet we don't do it. LOLPeter Panhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09473311771939167712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-82217489009759148762017-01-14T01:07:28.605-05:002017-01-14T01:07:28.605-05:00"This is new territory and most people are vi..."This is new territory and most people are viewing it through old lenses and projecting wildly. Stay calm and don't get sucked into the vortex."<br /><br />That's what I liked about the people who were able to foresee the DJT victory and were ahead of the curve all along. They view this whole situation through a new paradigm just like how Mike takes a unique approach to trading and making use of mental game even when the adversity is high. Since I know people who are seeing it a different way and I'm naturally very cynical and distrusting of the guy and also have my pretty left-wing bias, often times, I am torn between thinking DJT will be worse than Bush II or he'll completely defy my expectations, change reality and do some really unexpected stuff no one could have seen coming and be this Master Persuader after all I overlooked. I am looking at a 50-50 shot here. Tons of people who frequent comment on his Twitter page are in the fearing the worst mode and hate his guts beyond belief. <br /><br />Again, the opinion polls for Trump according to this Quinnipiac poll show Trump having 37% approval right now before taking office. It's just like during the election when the numbers for him were at their lowest points after the Access Hollywood tape, and then he managed to pull off a surprise victory. I know you're also a generally left leaning person and you're one of the few that isn't repeating all the same fear and doubt I've heard from all the different progressive channels out there like Democracy Now, David Pakman, The Young Turks, etc. There are other progressives that are actually focusing on calling out the BS from Democrats and others on their own side and actually trying to educate others about MMT and not wasting too much time trying to talk about Trump, but I feel those people are still in the minority right now. Penguin pophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01438480665686684027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-70101720350207780622017-01-14T00:37:20.694-05:002017-01-14T00:37:20.694-05:00I am fearing the worst, but good point, Tom. Wait ...<i>I am fearing the worst, but good point, Tom. Wait and see.</i><br /><br />This is new territory and most people are viewing it through old lenses and projecting wildly. Stay calm and don't get sucked into the vortex.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-22592140914083334112017-01-14T00:09:31.002-05:002017-01-14T00:09:31.002-05:00PCR is having buyers remorse already. Not looking ...PCR is having buyers remorse already. Not looking good. I am fearing the worst, but good point, Tom. Wait and see.Penguin pophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01438480665686684027noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-92105543951438898952017-01-13T22:20:02.223-05:002017-01-13T22:20:02.223-05:00DJT has not even been inaugurated yet. He just has...DJT has not even been inaugurated yet. He just has to get through the next six days. Then we will see.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-3549044378298413892017-01-13T22:11:37.166-05:002017-01-13T22:11:37.166-05:00The Deep State is running the show regardless of w...The Deep State is running the show regardless of who's on the throne. <br /><br />Orwell was dead on. It's either Eurasia or Eastasia. <br /><br />Hopefully not both at the same time. Noah Wayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12012500819097539976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-85257864487809165792017-01-13T21:40:21.506-05:002017-01-13T21:40:21.506-05:00PCR is not sounding optimistic:
http://www.paulcra...PCR is not sounding optimistic:<br />http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2017/01/13/is-trump-already-finished-paul-craig-roberts/Peter Panhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09473311771939167712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-48225003004877665472017-01-13T20:35:23.962-05:002017-01-13T20:35:23.962-05:00I've heard that some medical procedures are be...I've heard that some medical procedures are being done in India. Americans are being put on planes and sent overseas because it saves the insurer's money.<br /><br />You want Medicare for all - you'll have to fight for it. Trump could be your hero, but he'll need the public behind him to scare the pants off those who have been bought and paid for.Peter Panhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09473311771939167712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-5560439615598786812017-01-13T20:25:15.762-05:002017-01-13T20:25:15.762-05:00You have a health care system that the major stake...<i>You have a health care system that the major stakeholders want. Hiring experts to make recommendations won't fool anyone. "Getting it done" requires political will.</i><br /><br />The US health care industry is not doing so well in some respects. Iowa just privatized Medicare and the ins co. are getting creamed. The state is going to have to pony up.<br /><br />The ACA also has real problems with huge premium increases that is making it unaffordable for some, who are electing to just pay the penalty.<br /><br />A lot of people, on the left included, were saying from he get-go that the ACA was trash and never should have been passed in the form it was. I was one of them. It was not only inadequate and poorly designed but stupid politically with the mandate and fine.<br /><br />There is no way to have a universal health care program with the provisions that the public wants other than single payer like Medicare. <br /><br />The no-brainer is to Medicare for all — and recognize that it doesn't have to be paid for. The only requirement is real. This involves the investment needed to provide increasingly high quality care in the present and future. This means that government must ensure that the private sector continues to develop innovative technology and that educational facilities are expanded to meet the needs of a growing population.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-69196939041813047122017-01-13T20:12:18.103-05:002017-01-13T20:12:18.103-05:00You have a health care system that the major stake...You have a health care system that the major stakeholders want. Hiring experts to make recommendations won't fool anyone. "Getting it done" requires political will.Peter Panhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09473311771939167712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-66491080650733499572017-01-13T18:38:57.396-05:002017-01-13T18:38:57.396-05:00" The bill came to 35K. Medicare paid under 3...<i>" The bill came to 35K. Medicare paid under 3K and the supplement paid 20% of that.<br /><br />I'm told that private insurers get about a 30% discount."<br /><br /><br />Well the 35k is the "list price" and then discounts are awarded it is standard pricing methodology 101... and nobody pays "list"..</i><br /><br />Not exactly. If someone is uninsured they are billed the full price. I know, since was billed full price for an incident that did not meet my high deductible before I was on Medicare. A friend of mine was insurance and he told me that I could likely bargain them down 30%, especially if I was willing to offer cash settlement. That's what happened. But most people likely don't know that and just pay the price or get hit with a judgment.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-83167551883071555752017-01-13T18:34:15.571-05:002017-01-13T18:34:15.571-05:00The whole emphasis on cost in health care is, as w...The whole emphasis on cost in health care is, as we know, a red herring. The only constraint is real — available resources. Affordability is never an obstacle to a currency sovereign like the US government.<br /><br />The objective is to provide high quality health care for every American and if the system is not present capable of doing that, then build it out, whatever it takes. <br /><br />Cost not an object when it comes to military spending for the simple reason that the federal government issues the dollar using keystrokes, which are unlimited.<br /><br />The same thing is true in every area of society that is vital. If the private sector is unable or unwilling to accomplish the task, or the task involves public goods or utilities, then the federal government should fund it. <br /><br />The only area in which the government should not participate is in discretion goods and services. That is to say, government should be involved in providing needs and not wants. <br /><br />The private sector can be involved in providing needs to the degree that needs are met effectively and efficiently, but the private sector should be chiefly involved in meeting wants rather than needs. <br /><br />Of course the government doesn't need to either run the operations that provide for needs, or even administer them. That can be done on contract. <br /><br />All the federal government needs to do is provide the funding and run an economic policy based on functional finance that ensures price stability.<br /><br />Inflation? Tax it back. The right hand giveth and the left hand taketh away.<br />Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-63688383028943319382017-01-13T18:18:46.111-05:002017-01-13T18:18:46.111-05:00Matt,
From all the details above, things don'...Matt,<br /><br />From all the details above, things don't get clearer but murkier and murkier. You're a Republican, a Trump man and you follow Republican politics in a lot more detail than the rest of us, so you're in a position to better gauge what is going on. <br /><br />This may be an impossible question to answer, but what do you think Trump actually wants? He says a million times if he's elected prez he'll "repeal Obamacare because it's a disaster". Now apparently the Reps are saying there is zero chance of repeal but some amendments here and there are necessary. Politics is politics, but the current crop of Reps look like charlatans. They scream that Obamacare is a "disaster" and that they'll "repeal" this "socialism" if they ever get the chance to do so, but when they're handed the opportunity they say a few "amendments" should suffice, and that the Kenyan Muslim who didn't have a constitutional right to even be in the country did such a good job on healthcare that all it needs is a couple of tweaks. What kind of political party is this? These people should be televangelists. <br /><br />So don't do what the Obummeristas do, and project their values on to their candidate! Forget for a moment what you think would work, what is it that Trump wants to do? Does he want to negotiate pharmaceuticals? Does he want to force lower costs from the insurers? Does he want to bulk buy into the insurance sector? Or will he just keep Obummercare, tweak it imperceptibly and call it Trumpcare?<br /><br /><br />Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18181631191840432399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-56227443059327754852017-01-13T17:41:03.671-05:002017-01-13T17:41:03.671-05:00Trump is changing what is termed "Acquisition...Trump is changing what is termed "Acquisition Strategy":<br /><br />https://www.mitre.org/publications/systems-engineering-guide/acquisition-systems-engineering/program-acquisition-strategy-formulation<br /><br />Trump is proposing to modify the past approach to acquisition of healthcare to a new approach... seeking to bring the $$$ paid DOWN when viewed ex post...Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-78133819020578499132017-01-13T17:30:11.208-05:002017-01-13T17:30:11.208-05:00Rather "Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quanti...Rather "Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity":<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IDIQ<br /><br />It is far from ideal approach if price is most important criteria...<br /><br />(FD I am a graduate of Defense Systems Management College...)Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-37504570942957006222017-01-13T17:18:18.506-05:002017-01-13T17:18:18.506-05:00" The bill came to 35K. Medicare paid under 3..." The bill came to 35K. Medicare paid under 3K and the supplement paid 20% of that.<br /><br />I'm told that private insurers get about a 30% discount."<br /><br /><br />Well the 35k is the "list price" and then discounts are awarded it is standard pricing methodology 101... and nobody pays "list"...<br /><br />the private insurers are paying for most of US healthcare that is where the providers get the bulk of revenues to cover their nut... <br /><br />Sure they take the Medicare $$$ every little bit helps they already have the infrastructure in place...<br /><br />Its like selling the Canadians pharma at their low prices... all you have in it is COG sold so if they sell Canada a pill for 5 cents that they get 12 cents for in US, and all it costs is a penny to produce they still make 4 cents off the Canada business and its accretive to earnings... but they couldnt do that for the US business they would go broke..<br /><br />thats why this whole left outrage thing on the vote with the buying the pharma from Canada is all BS you cant dictate price to vendors period... all you can do is commit to large firm quantities to reap scale economies and then get hopefully quotes from several vendors who compete...<br /><br />I think if Trump can get quotes he might be able to drop the price per enrollee by half...<br /><br />... and this will probably have a detrimental effect on the economy as the increased productivity from the scale economies will mean less people working in some classifications... <br /><br /><br /><br />Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-10408669821028399512017-01-13T16:38:23.539-05:002017-01-13T16:38:23.539-05:00I would bet Trump doesnt like the way single payer...I would bet Trump doesnt like the way single payer is done now where the providers submit a bill for individual procedures and the govt just pays the bill for the individual procedures... he would probably look at that as ripe for over-charging the payer...<br /><br />He probably wants to do something like Warren's proposal where you capitate the individuals and the institutions just do what is necessary if somebody comes in for treatment... get a quote to cover the people per person and establish large pools of people for the provider institution to work with from an actuarial perspective... <br /><br />All we really have is this to work with though which isnt much:<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6inQmf96SYQ<br /><br /><br />He says "I would make a deal with existing hospitals to take care of people...." <br /><br />So he met recently with leaders of Johns Hopkins, Mayo and Cleveland Clinics like he said he was going to do to start the discussions... have to see where it goes...<br /><br />He might think from the video "we are going to save so much money...." that he can hit existing budget targets for Medicaid/Medicare while still thinking "we're out of money!" like all the others... <br /><br />From a financial management perspective, if you have a firm fixed quantity and payment guarantees its a different management approach than if you have no guarantees and just hope somebody comes in sick that you can bill the govt for individual procedures...<br /><br />Nobody can achieve scale economies if there are no quantity guarantees...<br /><br />Its called "Indefinite Duration/Indefinite Quantity" type approach and that is not how you get the best prices from a vendor... you have to commit to firm quantities...<br /><br />You cant say "how much to build a building per floor?"... you have to say "how much to build this 30 story building?"<br /><br />So Trump could say, "we have 48M people in Medicaid age 0 to 64, how much to provide their healthcare PER PERSON for one year?" <br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-76543437011556352452017-01-13T16:34:49.089-05:002017-01-13T16:34:49.089-05:00Tom: "DJT has already said to forget about ju...Tom: "DJT has already said to forget about just repealing the ACA."<br /><br />Trump promised to repeal it because it's a "disaster". He didn't say he'd amend it. Tom, he said it a million times: "Obamacare is a disaster" and that he'd "repeal" it on day one, if he could. <br /><br />This is the healthcare equivalent of the wall becoming a fence. And a fence only where it's appropriate, you know, because in some places you can't build...Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18181631191840432399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-44049097822955439792017-01-13T16:29:13.626-05:002017-01-13T16:29:13.626-05:00Tom: "DJT's m.o. is to hire experts to g...Tom: "DJT's m.o. is to hire experts to get a job done."<br /><br />That may be his m.o., but that's an m.o. that's acceptable when buying nails and hammers, not for running a country. And what if the solution is worse than the status quo? Eventually, Trump is going to have to make some decisions, and not just palm it off to someone else. aAlthough that in itself may be his policy: why attract attention when it's easier to deflect the problem onto someone else? But even then, Trump will have to take responsibility if it doesn't work. <br /><br />If he wanted to get the job done, he'd just pass Medicare for all or something better. Do you genuinely believe that the people at JHU are going to come up with something the insurance companies don't like? Because the only real solution is a policy that the insurance companies don't like. But the important point is that Trump has never given any thought to what healthcare in America should look like, otherwise we would have heard it. And if he has no interest in healthcare, how's he going to judge whether what the JHU people advocate will in fact get the job done? <br /><br />Remember this has to get through a Republican congress. Between the notoriously rightwing JHU and an emboldened Republican congress, what works is a matter for interpretation. After all, the system before Obummercare also worked: if you didn't have insurance, then tough luck. That worked. Obummercare also works: the insurance companies make lots more money. <br /> <br />Too many presidents come in to office thinking that they're going to run things like a business, America PLC with the President as CEO. It doesn't take long to be disabused of that silliness. For it to be done with any competency, the job requires attention to detail. You got a sense of how uninterested to detail Trump is, when it was disclosed that he doesn't want to be briefed on intelligence every day. <br /><br /><br />Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18181631191840432399noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-32885518772365068592017-01-13T16:21:31.282-05:002017-01-13T16:21:31.282-05:00Maybe "single payer" of a premium not &q...<i>Maybe "single payer" of a premium not "single payer" of individual procedures...</i><br /><br />Single payer of individual procedures is the lowest cost. Anyone one Medicare that has had by procedures can tell you what the government pays. It's not much of what is billed. <br /><br />I had an emergency develop several years ago for which I treated as Mass General. The bill came to 35K. Medicare paid under 3K and the supplement paid 20% of that.<br /><br />I'm told that private insurers get about a 30% discount.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-31496587283731022732017-01-13T16:12:30.026-05:002017-01-13T16:12:30.026-05:00BTW, Obama and the Dems jamming though the ACA onl...BTW, Obama and the Dems jamming though the ACA only to see it repealed now shows the poverty that that philosophy. <br /><br />Trump knows this, too. The political process is sausage making rather than Congress passing the president's preferred policies.<br /><br />Trump has laid down the broad outline of what he will accept. Now the negotiation begins over how to achieve it.<br /><br />DJT has already said to forget about just repealing the ACA. Only 18% of the country is behind that. It would be political suicide, as he pointed out.<br /><br />So Congress has to repeal and replace if they don't want to amend the ACA. Obama even said he would support it if the can come up with something better.<br /><br />No one knows what Trump actually wants and that is how a good negotiator operates. Obama gave away the store by not understanding key principles of negotiation. DJT is not going to fall into that hole.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-44531848326977012832017-01-13T16:06:32.979-05:002017-01-13T16:06:32.979-05:00Maybe "single payer" of a premium not &q...Maybe "single payer" of a premium not "single payer" of individual procedures...Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.com