tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post5279557216610073758..comments2024-03-29T02:19:19.866-04:00Comments on Mike Norman Economics: What are the odds? Learn your odds of dying from different causes in the U.S. (2019 data)mike normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-35372568114580680682021-10-08T09:06:34.601-04:002021-10-08T09:06:34.601-04:00Take responsibility for your own health.
When dea...Take responsibility for your own health.<br /><br />When dealing with the medical establishment, you have the right to refuse treatment.<br /><br />In a few civilized countries, you have access to assisted suicide.<br /><br />As for what is beyond your control, take that up with the god(s)/goddess(es) of your choice.Peter Panhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09473311771939167712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-19982035131933501822021-10-07T19:46:58.439-04:002021-10-07T19:46:58.439-04:00The data for my previous comment was taken from th...The data for my previous comment was taken from this site. I have it set to open on:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.hardingcenter.de/en/early-detection-of-cancer/colon-cancer-early-detection/early-detection-of-colon-cancer-by-0" rel="nofollow">Early detection of colon cancer by flexible sigmoidoscopy in men</a><br /><br />It saves 2 in 1,000, but I thought it was much higher than that.<br /><br />The main list of procedures is on the right side of this page:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.hardingcenter.de/en/transfer-and-impact/fact-boxes" rel="nofollow">Fact Boxes</a>Ahmed Fareshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07105255828394485657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-58065742326982208312021-10-07T19:34:23.930-04:002021-10-07T19:34:23.930-04:00Bryan Caplan on risk:
Is Breast Cancer Screening ...Bryan Caplan on risk:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/08/is_breast_cance.html" rel="nofollow">Is Breast Cancer Screening Worthless? The Fact Box Speaks</a><br /><br /><i>First, is there evidence that mammography screening reduces my chance of dying from breast cancer? The answer is yes. Out of every one thousand women who did not participate in screening, about five died of breast cancer, while this number was four for those who participated. In statistical terms that is an absolute risk reduction of one in one thousand. But if you find this information in a newspaper or brochure, it is almost always presented as a “20 percent risk reduction” or more.<br /><br />Second, is there evidence that mammography screening reduces my chance of dying from any kind of cancer, including breast cancer? The answer is no…<br /><br />In plain words, there is no evidence that mammography saves lives. One less women in a thousand dies with the diagnosis breast cancer, but one more dies with another cancer diagnosis. Some women die with two or three different cancers, where it’s not always clear which of these caused death.</i><br /><br />Also, this:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/08/is_prostate_scr.html" rel="nofollow">Is Prostate Screening Worthless? The Icon Box Speaks</a><br /><br /><i>[I]s there any evidence that early detection reduces the number of deaths from prostate cancer? The answer is no: There was no difference… [I]s there evidence that detecting cancer at an early stage reduces the total number of deaths from any cause whatsoever? Again no.<br /><br />There are two kinds of harms: for men without prostate cancer and for men with prostate cancer that is nonprogressive. When a man without cancer repeatedly has a high PSA level, doctors typically do a biopsy. But unlike a mammogram, a PSA test does not tell the doctor where to inject the needle. As a result, men are often subjected to the nightmare of multiple needle biopsies in search of a tumor that is not there in the first place. These false alarms occur frequently because many men without cancer have high PSA levels…<br /><br />Men with nonprogressive prostate cancer suffer even more. If a biopsy showed any signs of cancer, most were pushed into unnecessary treatments, such as prostatectomy and radiation therapy… Between 20 and 70 percent of men who had no problems before treatment ended up incontinent or impotent for the rest of their lives.</i>Ahmed Fareshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07105255828394485657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-17530751023280666882021-10-07T19:23:03.997-04:002021-10-07T19:23:03.997-04:00One of the best videos I've seen about risk (6...One of the best videos I've seen about risk (6-minute video):<br /><br /><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoW8PSGPzAo" rel="nofollow">What Kills Us? How We Understand Risk.</a><br /><br />Because he mentions air travel versus road travel, it reminded me of this. Fear kills.<br /><br /><i><b>Driving fatalities after 9/11: a hidden cost of terrorism</b><br /><br />Abstract<br /><br />We show that the public's response to terrorist threats can have unintended consequences that rival the attacks themselves in severity. Driving fatalities increased significantly after the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, events that prompted many travellers to substitute road transportation for safer air transportation. After controlling for time trends, weather, road conditions and other factors, we find that travellers' response to 9/11 resulted in 327 driving deaths per month in late 2001. Moreover, while the effect of 9/11 weakened over time, as many as 2300 driving deaths may be attributable to the attacks.</i>Ahmed Fareshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07105255828394485657noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-89723657171157948132021-10-07T18:34:19.243-04:002021-10-07T18:34:19.243-04:00Who are the worst drivers in Canada by province?Who are the worst drivers in Canada by province?Peter Panhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09473311771939167712noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-55869265687461734212021-10-07T17:14:46.790-04:002021-10-07T17:14:46.790-04:00"So I looked up some statistics and when I sa..."So I looked up some statistics and when I saw them, I thought, WTF, I'm never travelling in a vehicle again! "<br /><br />Yes, scary to think about. But I gotta say it's wonder considering all the distractions there are while driving, the rush that people are in, etc. -- it's a wonder (more like a miracle) that driving accidents/fatalities aren't much higher. lastgreekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00354740659933239445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-92118475921669586712021-10-07T16:58:01.372-04:002021-10-07T16:58:01.372-04:00Humans just aren't very good at doing probabil...Humans just aren't very good at doing probabilities innately. We constantly over and underestimate things.<br /><br />We've seen conservatives underestimate the risk of covid and then overestimate the risk of the vaccines. Liberals have often overestimated the risk of covid.<br /><br />We see this about masks. They're not 100% effective, but they offer you a reduction of exposure. A lot of people don't really understand what a reduction of risk means, we've seen the same phenomenon with breakthrough cases among the vaccinated. Conservatives can't seem to understand what a reduction of risk means. A breakthrough cases gets immediately equated to "doesn't work at all". <br />Then you have my favorite, "I believe in science (TM). Hold on, let me put my mask on before going outside for a jog", despite the risk of catching covid while out on a jog is miniscule, your chance of getting in a car wreck are higher, hell getting hit by a car while jogging is higher.<br />We see it with the fear mongering around children. Sure, 500+ kids have died from covid, but about that many kids die from drowning in swimming pools and hot tubs during a year and half time period and more kids than that on average die in car wreck during a similar time period. The kids are overwhelmingly fine, they face bigger risks than covid. Now their parents and especially their grandparents do face real risks from covid. It's the height of stupidity for a 70+ year old person judging the risk of a vaccines to be greater than the risks associated with covid. But numbers don't mean anything if you're trying to own the libs.<br /><br />Joehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15197727918414570446noreply@blogger.com