tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post7147428408471865964..comments2024-03-28T07:50:06.102-04:00Comments on Mike Norman Economics: Fed says it will remove income for the next two years. Markets rally.mike normanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-71778968919683308782012-01-26T03:16:23.909-05:002012-01-26T03:16:23.909-05:00The idea that low interest rates are deflationary ...The idea that low interest rates are deflationary is valid if its new money created by the central bank that funds those payments. But it could be that in some countries, the standard arrangement is that those payments are funded from tax. In that case, interest rate changes would have no effect – at least as far as the “interest payment” effect goes (interest rate changes doubtless have variety of other effects, but I’m ignoring those).<br /><br />So is there anyone out there who knows something about the relevant arrangements in different countries?Ralph Musgravehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09443857766263185665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-48760262515005990542012-01-25T22:29:18.690-05:002012-01-25T22:29:18.690-05:00I believe risk off will come from an erosion in th...I believe risk off will come from an erosion in the economic data once again. What we are seeing now is Nov-Dec data and that had seasonal strength (hirings, sales, etc). That will fade and questions about the economy, even worries about recession, will surface. And don't forget that at the end of February, the whole entire tax cut debate starts again because the temporary fix that was agreed to in December, will be finished. Could be rancorous.mike normanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-77001385619748113992012-01-25T19:29:01.449-05:002012-01-25T19:29:01.449-05:00It's exactly what I wanted to say. January ris...It's exactly what I wanted to say. January risk on tendency maybe just seasonal. But I don't know yet what can cause the risk off mode. Maybe something with portugal again? Portugal CDS on new high.Павелhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16129229806915917975noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-29276395064771191112012-01-25T18:27:40.415-05:002012-01-25T18:27:40.415-05:00Paul,
I think the dollar IS going up. The move is...Paul,<br /><br />I think the dollar IS going up. The move is still in its early stages, but it will be long term...very long term!mike normanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-2032686020282994472012-01-25T18:26:52.950-05:002012-01-25T18:26:52.950-05:00Broll,
Sell options, every month. Month in and mo...Broll,<br /><br />Sell options, every month. Month in and month out. Take in that income month after month after month, because we are going nowhere for a long time. Sideways. Put on a giant strangle and take in premium forever.mike normanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-8989211409062491412012-01-25T18:25:16.074-05:002012-01-25T18:25:16.074-05:00I'm not saying raise rates. I'm just sayin...I'm not saying raise rates. I'm just saying the Fed should stop deluding people with this false premise that low rates are a stimulus. They're not and they're certainly not in a debt deflation like we're going through. <br /><br />Bernanke should also get off the "fiscal responsibility" bandwagon and tell Congress that fiscal policy is the only way to restore full output and employment.<br /><br />It's funny, today in his press conference he acknowledged the loss of income from low interest rates, but said that savers and investors are also helped by growth, yet he believes that somehow the zero interest rate policy of the Fed is promoting growth? Isn't there enough evidence here and certainly in Japan, that that's not the case???!@#$%&**mike normanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-43339128578912546812012-01-25T17:29:43.059-05:002012-01-25T17:29:43.059-05:00So if we know the economy is going to continue to ...So if we know the economy is going to continue to slow and bubbles will build in certain commodities, what would be a good strategy for personal investment?Broll The Americanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15154214253418885609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-85139046409234776512012-01-25T17:22:19.747-05:002012-01-25T17:22:19.747-05:00Hi, Mike! My name is Paul. Your's blog is good...Hi, Mike! My name is Paul. Your's blog is good, I've read it some months. Just want to say hi and thanks for work. Sorry my English, I'm from damned Russia. <br /> And something else. Whole January we've seen decrease in risk in banking system, and CDS too decreased. But now, I think in couple of days will be some surprise, thanks to fed, and dollar goes up. Look at gold, volume is great at huge movement. It's usually tells about end of short tendency.Павелhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16129229806915917975noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-12815489551953400862012-01-25T17:09:45.631-05:002012-01-25T17:09:45.631-05:00TPTB are terrified of housing. They want to keep L...TPTB are terrified of housing. They want to keep LT rates low for some time so as many people as possible can refinance at a monthly they can carry. <br /><br />The US is not out of the crisis yet, and they are well aware of that, since they are in a postion to know what the banks' balance sheets look like. And everyone knows how many people are underwater on their mortgages. They are also aware of global risks beyond their control that can effect the US negatively if things go south.Tom Hickeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08454222098667643650noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-19129263980665536872012-01-25T16:57:18.660-05:002012-01-25T16:57:18.660-05:00So Mike, you're saying they should raise inter...So Mike, you're saying they should raise interest rates? Opposite of conventional wisdom, but I think I see the logic in it.<br /><br /><br />Higher interest rates would discourage borrowing, which was what got us in the mess to begin with. But wouldn't most of the interest income go to higher net worth individuals and thus have less stimulative effect than if it went to lower income people?Joehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15197727918414570446noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-10086650406337778952012-01-25T16:50:27.048-05:002012-01-25T16:50:27.048-05:00Apparently.Apparently.mike normanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03296006882513340747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2761684730989137546.post-25891360791873443522012-01-25T16:26:35.240-05:002012-01-25T16:26:35.240-05:00Confidence Fairy waved her magic wand Mike ;)Confidence Fairy waved her magic wand Mike ;)Matt Frankohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11978352335097260145noreply@blogger.com