Wednesday, August 15, 2012

RyanoBachmannalia - Where Does it Leave Us?


Warren Mosler has some succinct observations about the politics of fiscal policy, which are worth re-posting as is. However, even after his comments, the same 2, perennial questions remain.  First, if it's long past time to start doing things differently, how do we take the 1st step on that 1000-mile journey?  We've been asking that question periodically, since Ben Franklin, Abe Lincoln & Marriner Eccles.  Isn't it past time to permanently capture known answers?  Second, how do we bite the bullet and take steps to permanently capture this as an obvious, incidental part of cultural knowledge base?  Yes, it's embarrassing, and a travesty.  What do we DO about it?

Ryan the next Bachman - (by Warren Mosler)

There's a reason the hardcore budget balancer/deficit hawks don't last long under the microscope. Their numbers can't add up, which leaves them with contradictory statements.

Why can't they add up?
[Because dollars are part of] a 'closed system,' what's called a case of 'inside money,' due to the fact that they all come from [government] and/or its designated agents (apart from counterfeits).

This means the [growing number of] dollars in our pension funds, ira's, corporate reserves, cash in circulation, foreign central bank reserves, etc. etc. all come from someone else spending more than his income.

Yes, the rest of the private sector can and does often spend a bit more than it's income to supply those 'saver's dollars,' but most of it comes from the $15 trillion or so the US govt. has spent [yearly] in excess of its tax collections.
That's called federal deficit spending.

[RGE:  Don't ask me why the REAL economy acquiesces in calling fiat currency creation a "deficit." Accounting semantics should converge to reality. The inverse doesn't seem realistic, or even temporarily useful.]

In fact, the US govt. "debt" is equal to the net dollar denominated 'savings' of all the other sectors combined.
To the penny.
It can't come from anywhere else [except currency creation].

That means any plan to balance the federal budget is also a plan that doesn't allow global dollar savings to grow. [That includes all] the 'automatic savings' like dollars going into and compounding in pension funds, ira's, corporate reserves, cash in circulation, and foreign central bank reserves, etc. etc. [All that savings] either can't happen or [they] are 'supplied' by equal private sector debt increases.

So a plan to reduce the "deficit" [by] $10 trillion from current forecasts is also a plan that either causes private sector debt to increase by that much and/or causes pensions, ira's, corporate reserves, cash in circulation, and foreign central bank reserves to decrease by that much.

None of which is consistent with a growing economy, to say the least.

This means, any plan for long term deficit reduction that includes relatively high rates of growth is what can be called a financial optical illusion, [one] that doesn't hold up on close examination.

And that's why all the budget balancers ultimately fail.
Yes, their headline rhetoric can be casually convincing and even win local elections. But under serious scrutiny, it all falls apart.

But maybe this time it's different.
:( 

[RGE: Don't hold your breath, Warren. The problem is not with currency operations. The key problem is mixing semantics across fields which insist on using different semantics without accurately defining their terms when interacting. That's a situational awareness task, not a monetary operations task. We're arguing over tactics & strategy using sloppy, disorganized terms, while not even defining what success means.  The result is tactics masquerading as national goals.]

14 comments:

Roger Erickson said...

Nick asks: "But people might not see past Ryan's insanity because which part of 'budgets need to be balanced' don't you understand? That's universally true. Do YOU want an unbalanced budget? :) "

As a Mad Hatter, I obviously prefer insanely disjointed semantics.
We should just form a Sophist Party and be done with it.
Then anything defined "true" per constrained relationships, could be defended [to the death!] as obligatorily "true" under any and all circumstances. The party mascot could be Schroedinger's cat.

Our slogan could be "Universal Truth - love it or leave it."

Roger Erickson said...

Or, better yet, "Universal Truthiness - love it or leave it."

JK said...

I've always had reservation with this phrase "To the penny" …when talking about the national debt being savings. I understand that is is 'savings' but, to the penny???

It seems to leave out that cash and coins can be saved as well, e.g. 'under the matress' or in the Piggy Bank.

Tom Hickey said...

"To the penny" = inside money nets to zero, outside money doesn't. There is no net saving of inside money. Outside money is net saving. This is MMT's "horizontal-vertical" distinction.

Trixie said...

Reconciling sector balances:

http://www.3spoken.co.uk/2012/02/reconciling-s-i-s-i-to-national.html

paul meli said...

JK: "To the penny"

"To the penny" is what we should see on the government balance sheet.

Our estimates of non-government activity should be close to the figures on the government balance sheet or we are doing something wrong.

paul meli said...

This sounds very much like the things we've been hammering away on over here.

Feels good to be validated by the Master.:-)

Dan Lynch said...

The politically viable way to change the national conversation is to use the big-ass platinum coin to pay off the national debt with plenty left over in the Treasury for good measure.

Tom Hickey said...

Roger, I think that this is going to take a distributed, social networking, crowd-sourcing meta-approach that won't involve just MMT but the integration of a lot knowledge and approaches. It's already happening, and awareness of MMT is growing along with it. Up and coming generations don't like the future they see in store for them, and they disagree markedly with current norms. This is a replay of the Sixties and early Seventies. The first countercultural revolution in the US sort of fizzled for two reasons. First, the Vietnam War ended and Nixon resigned, defusing the explosive situation. Moreover, the culture did change significantly, and that was enough to co-opt most people. Only the diehards fought on as activists or realized that the system wasn't going to change and built alternative systems and networks. So there is already a base to build on this time. Moreover, a lot of the intellectual underpinning of the Sixties and Seventies movement is still relevant, Bucky Fuller, Gregory Bateson, Kenneth Boulding, and Abraham Maslow, for example, and there has been a lot of good thinking along these line since then. MMT is an innovative systems approach that is built on that foundation, Boulding for instance in economics. So we are hardly starting from scratch. So of the activist leaders today are going to be recognized in the future, too, such as David Graeber.

I think that MMT will develop along more radical lines, too, with specific proposals to reform or redesign existing institutions, as Warren has already done to a degree. I think that the other side of this is a global transformation with much greater awareness of the planet as a closed system and the necessity to approach it as such. As a result there is likely to be weakening of the nation state and a democratizing of international instituions. Neoliberal capitalism cannot survive since it is not compatible with liberal democracy, and liberal democracy based on freedom, equality, and community-solidarity, and responsibility under the rule of law will overtake neoliberalism. But I don't think that the transition will be smooth, owing to vested interests and the "inertial momentum" of the status quo as resistance to change. It will take a lot of adaptability and resilience, and adaptability and resilience are characteristics of distributed systems. TPTB will try to suppress the opposition and wear it down, but it is unlikely to be successful over time.

Tom Hickey said...

Should add that the US is not yet lined up for change since not enough of the middle class are that bad off. The country is evenly split going to the general between the two parties and progressive number the minority in the Democratic Party.

I don't project significant change taking place before 2020-2025, unless there is a surprise breakdown beforehand.

dave said...

tom, they are screwing up the country as fast as they can, cut em some slack, they dont want people to notice just how bad they are getting f@#cked, these things have to be done gently, wouldnt want to piss the serfs off

Tom Hickey said...

dave, the idea is to turn the screws down as fast they can while not provoking open revolt. When revolt breaks out it is brutally suppressed. This has already been going on in the US UK, and EZ for some time. Contained protests in the West, but no Arab Spring. It's working for them so far.

jeg3 said...

One sign too look for real change is when networked groups (e.g. OWS, etc.) decides to become active in politics by joining a party in mass and putting up a candidate that represents them. And not a choice of Neoliberal left or right.

The Vote Revolt is the real game changer that really threatens oligarchs and why they spend so much effort to suppress it. Political party activity and online networks also generally circumvents law enforcement suppression once it takes hold.

The important election is the Party Primary.

Jonf said...

I agree with jeg. Once OWS joins a party and puts its agenda out there in a primary election change will start to accumulate. Thus far though they have not taken on that challenge.