Wednesday, May 25, 2016

Wikileaks — Trade in Services Agreement [Tisa]

Today, Wednesday, 25 May 2016, 11:30am CEST, WikiLeaks releases new secret documents from the huge Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) which is being negotiated by the US, EU and 22 other countries that account for 2/3rds of global GDP.
This release includes a previously unknown annex to the TiSA core chapter on "State Owned Enterprises" (SOEs), which imposes unprecedented restrictions on SOEs and will force majority owned SOEs to operate like private sector businesses. This corporatisation of public services - to nearly the same extent as demanded by the recently signed TPP - is a next step to privatisation of SOEs on the neoliberal agenda behind the "Big Three" (TTIP,TiSA,TPP).
Other documents in todays release cover updated versions of annexes to TiSA core chapters that were published by WikiLeaks in previous releases; these updates show the advances in the confidential negotiations between the TiSA parties on the issues of Domestic Regulation, New Provisions, Transparency, Electronic Commerce, Financial Services, Telecommunication Services, Professional Services and the Movement of Natural Persons. WikiLeaks is also publishing expert analyses on some of these documents.
The annexes on Domestic Regulation, Transparency and New Provisions have further advanced towards the "deregulation" objectives of big corporations entering overseas markets. Local regulations like store size restrictions or hours of operations are considered an obstacle to achieve "operating efficiencies" of large-scale retailing, disregarding their public benefit that foster livable neighbors and reasonable hours of work for employees. The TiSA provisions in their current form will establish a wide range of new grounds for domestic regulations to be challenged by corporations - even those without a local presence in that country.
Cementing hardcore neoliberalism in place as the basis for a new world order of global governance under transnational financial and business elites. The noose is closing, but expect blowback. some will not go quietly, but the police state is already in place.


Police Brutality & the Militarization Protocol : Captain Ray Lewis & Sacha Stone :

A very brave policeman who went against his force to defend Occupy.

Former Captain of the Philadelphia Police Ray Lewis speaks to Sacha Stone about the mounting militarisation of police in the USA. The video contains disturbing footage of police brutality and invites the viewer to consider their own critical role as a citizen in apprehending the status quo....

Michael Hudson and Webster Tarpley Disseminate Disinformation, by Jack Straw

Jack Straw’s criticism of Michael Hudson and Webster Tarpley

This is not the British Labour Party’s Jack Straw, but the communist economist. In the article given in the link below Jack Straw criticises Michael Hudson and Webster Tarpley for believing that the great US middle class can be rebuilt, even though the world’s resources are fast running out. I think he get’s Michael Hudson wrong and below I explain why.

Well, it turns out that Webster Griffin Tarpley is his real name, and yep, that's some name for sure, but he has sent me all the around-the-houses for the last few days.  I found this really good article by him about what is happening in the Middle East today which I almost posted  here, but a little while afterwards I found out some more stuff about Tarpley which I wasn't all that keen on.

I first came across Webster Tarpley a few years back and I thought, wow, he's a good leftist! Then I came across him again on the Alex Jones Show sniggering and sneering about the British Queen, things I do totally agree with, but they were both so infantile and childish that it put me off them. I then thought, damn, I've been caught out again because Tarpley is really a right wing libertarian. I often get caught out on right wing blogs where I think they are left – i.e., anti war, anti banker, anti the elite, you know what I mean, and then I find out how right wing they really are, and sometimes that they are even white supremacist? 

A few months later I found out that Tarpley really was a socialist after all and I thought, terrific, because he can be so good, but then with all his mad conspiracy theories and climate change denial it just put me right off him again.

Michael Hudson couldn’t be more different, he is considerate, thoughtful, and much more relaxed.  Anyhow, I was never sure how ‘industrial capitalism’, as Michael calls it, was going to be less exploitative than financial capitalism, but I gave Michael Hudson the benefit of the doubt. And I could understand where Micheal was coming from; a meritocracy is so much better than feudalism, which was a state of the self perpetuating rich.  I think Hudson is a genuine leftist, and not an out an out meritocracist, but he knows that a real meritocracy would really break the ruling class's oligarchy and so that is the place to start. After this has been achieved, Michael believes that the mixed economy and the welfare state would then develop, along with the three day week, where the benefits of industrial capitalism would finally be spread out.

But to counter this social democratic movement - which would mean the loss of over class's privileged lifestyle,  the elite then used the  ‘meritocracy’ as a way to pretend that they also stand for a ‘people’s type of capitalism’, where everyone rightly gets what they deserve. This sounds fine except you must ask what does this position hold for them, why do they like it? Well, because then they can then say that there should be no welfare state, or any benefits, or minimum wage, or any public services, or social provision, and that everything should be privatized. Now mix that with a load of propaganda that they constantly pump out about in the media that they own about how lazy the underclass are, and then you can see the system that they have duped the public with.

Some MMTer's believe that the US can be revamped, re-industrialized, and its infrastructure rebuilt to create a modern, social democracy with a large middle class. Personally, I think Jack Straw’s criticism of Michael Hudson is a bit harsh, where he questions his style of socialism and criticizes his theories. Michael Hudson would like to see the three day working day week with robots and automation doing more of the work (just think of 3D printing) with people working less and having more leisure time. 

 But are people actually capable of doing less when everyone just wants more? Let’s hope so. Maybe we can relearn how to be more relaxed and have a less driven society because Jack Straw is right when he says that the oil is running out, and that the climate is being ruined, and so we will have to learn how to use less fossil fuel in the future. He argues that the great utopia of the great middle class, with houses filled with junk that we don't need, and shops open 24/7 everyday of the year piled high with even more gunk, the never ending capitalist machine, just can't carry on forever. But if we can make sure we have first class public health care and excellent public provision, we can still live reasonable, happy lives and ones that will be less pace driven and more relaxed than they are now.  So hopefully going past peak oil won't be anywhere near as traumatic as the doomsters like to say it will be.

The article below is interesting in its own right because it goes into some of the history of Webster Tapley, Micheal Hudson and the LaRouche movement. This is a good article with lots of references to Karl Marx and his theories. 

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Dirk Ehnts — Martin Feldstein on government debt does not make sense

Ignorance or politicization?

econoblog 101
Martin Feldstein on government debt does not make sense
Dirk Ehnts | Lecturer at Bard College Berlin

Stephen Rosenfeld — Trump’s Top Campaign Adviser Made Millions From Arms Dealers, Warlords, Dictators and Oligarchs

Paul Manfort under scrutiny.

Noting illegal, and business is business, right?

Trump’s Top Campaign Adviser Made Millions From Arms Dealers, Warlords, Dictators and Oligarchs
Stephen Rosenfeld

Time to take the next step

Carola Binder — Behavioral Economics Then and Now

Homo socialis, non-optimization, and economic policy.

Quantitative Ease
Behavioral Economics Then and Now
Carola Binder

Poll now open for you to vote for the “Top 10 Economics Books of the Last 100 Years”


Real-World Economics Review Blog
Poll now open for you to vote for the “Top 10 Economics Books of the Last 100 Years”

Pedro Marin — Coup in Brazil: the International Connection

Auditoriums filled to the last seat, sound trucks, offices. Organizations such as the Millenium Institute, Free Brazil Movement (MLB), the Liberal Institute, the Ludwig Von Mises Institute – Brazil – and Students for Liberty Brazil as if by magic emerged in Brazil’s political scenario, publishing books and organizing demonstrations with huge structures, as well as giving training and lectures – a process that found a fertile breeding ground in the country, due to the global crisis and the Lava Jato operation.
But despite the attempts by its founders and by part of the media to paint the projects they promote as something “for Brazil”, originated by the Brazilian people and “spontaneous”, all these organizations are funded and trained from abroad, as Marina Amaral reported in an article for Agência Publica, showing how a network of NGOs promote leadership training and fund “intellectuals” in order to build consensus as well as movements to put the streets on fire.  Among such organizations present in Latin America is the Atlas Network.
Founded in 1981 with the goal of “promoting free market economic policies around the World”, Atlas is a think-tank that openly funds right-wing activities in more than 90 countries.  With an annual budget of U$ 11,5 Million, it acts by funding and shaping neoliberal figures.  As U.S. legislation prohibits such organizations from funding political agitation around the world, each movement is supported by “formation institutes”, which  are free to receive funds.  That’s the relationship between the education center Students for Liberty (EPL) with the professional activism of the Free Brazil Movement, for instance. EPL’s budget this year amounted to R$ 300,000 (about $ 85,000). “In the first year we have about R$ 8,000, in the second year we had about R$ 20,000, and in 2014 and 2015 it grew a lot. We receive money from foreign organizations as well, such as Atlas. Atlas, with Students for Liberty, are our main donors. In Brazil, the main organizations are Friderich Naumann, a German organization, which aren’t allowed to donate money, but they pay for our expenses”, said Juliano Torres, executive directors of the Brazilian branch of Students For Liberty.
In Ukraine – where there was a coup d’etat against elected President Viktor Yanukovich in 2014 – Atlas funded the Bendukidze Free Market Center and the Center for Social and Economic Research. The first one has members such as the former President of Georgia and current governor of Odessa, Mikheil Saakashvili, and Deputy head of the (post coup) presidential Administration of Ukraine, Alexander Danyluk. The former is also funded by Open Society Foundation, of known speculator and color revolutions’ man, George Soros, and has among their partners government agencies from Ukraine, Canada, England, as well as USAID (U.S.A) and the World Bank.
In 2014, Atlas Network gave about $ 4,5 million to various organizations around the World. In Latin America alone they gave $ 984,000 to organizations that follow the teachings of Milton Friedman, Hayek and Mises, and target the progressive governments of the region. That’s the case of Cedice Libertad, in Venezuela, and of organizations such as the U.S based Human Rights Foundation, created by Venezuelan Thor Halvorssen, Leopoldo López’ cousin and son of an ambassador of Andrés Pérez’ government, which target non-aligned governments of Venezuela, Cuba and Russia, and which became known in 2015 for creating an online campaign to push propaganda into North Korea’s territory.
But Atlas itself is also funded by various corporations and foundations. Companies such as Google, Exxon Mobil and organizations such as DonorsTrust [1], State Policy Network – created by businessman and Ronald Reagan’s adviser Tom Roe – and Charles G. Koch Foundation, linked to the known Koch Industries, are only some of the names that helped Atlas to donate more than U.S.$ 4 million around the world.
A Color Revolution in Brazil?
Follow the money. Cui bono?

Coup in Brazil: the International Connection
Pedro Marin | OutrasPalavras

Moon of Alabama — "How Many Villages Do They Have To Massacre Before They Become Bad Guys?" [Warning: graphic imagery]

"Our guys." Is the US sponsoring terrorism?

Moon of Alabama
"How Many Villages Do They Have To Massacre Before They Become Bad Guys?"

Liberty Street — The Macro Effects of the Recent Swing in Financial Conditions

Credit conditions tightened considerably in the second half of 2015 and U.S. growth slowed. We estimate the extent to which tighter credit conditions last year were responsible for the slowdown using the FRBNY DSGE model. We find that growth would have slowed substantially more had the Federal Reserve not delayed liftoff in the federal funds rate.…
Increases in credit spreads tend to be associated with subsequent slowdowns in economic activity, with the Great Recession being a salient example. In part, such increases reflect investors’ concerns about future economic conditions, changes in firms’ leverage, heightened worries about borrowers’ default, and so on. However, as Simon Gilchrist and Egon Zakrajšek and others have shown in their research, such increases in credit spreads often cause an economic slowdown. A natural question is then: Did the rise in credit spreads reflect deteriorating economic conditions or did the causality run the other way around in this episode?
To answer this question, we need an economic model that can disentangle the various channels at work. We use the FRBNY DSGE model, which is a very stylized representation of reality that formalizes key interactions among critical economic actors such as households, firms, the financial sector, and the government. The model is then estimated using Bayesian methods, combining prior information about parameters with important macroeconomic data.…
The model attributes most of the increase in spreads from 2015:Q3 to 2016:Q1 to unexpected disturbances—which we will refer to as “financial shocks.” These shocks reflect developments that are not fully captured by the model. In late 2015, these developments include a downward revision in the foreign outlook and the deteriorating creditworthiness of the U.S. energy sector owing to the drop in energy prices.…
Why did GDP growth not fall by more, then, with such a powerful combination of adverse shocks? According to the model, the answer lies in large part with monetary policy.…
The model suggests that by maintaining the federal funds rate lower, the FOMC managed to substantially offset the effect of tightening financial conditions on the economy. As financial markets revised downward their expectations of interest rate renormalization, the rate at which firms and households could borrow remained low in spite of the increase in spreads.…
The model doesn't look at loosening of fiscal stance?
It is important to remember, however, that our analysis relies on a model that is necessarily a stylized representation of reality. As such, model implications need to be taken with caution.

FRBNY — Liberty Street Economics
The Macro Effects of the Recent Swing in Financial Conditions
Marco Del Negro, Marc Giannoni, and Micah Smith

Lars P. Syll — The witch called ‘confidence fairy’

The confidence fairy seems to have turned into a confidence witch. One more victim of the crisis. But this one will not be missed. —Francesco Saraceno
"Confidence" like "expectations" is a weasel word whose meaning depends on how it is interpreted. Few economists doubt that confidence is key in economic behavior, or that expectations are not based on confidence.

The issue is what confidence depends upon. Is it fiscal rectitude and wage-price flexibility as neoclassical economists suppose, or it is effective demand, as Keynes posited.

Imposing fiscal discipline, disciplining labor, and "structural reform" has been tried and not work. Cutting taxes on the wealthy to spur investment has not worked either. Fiscal stimulus has been tried and worked.

Want to improve business confidence so that firms will increase investment? Send customers to their counters. Government has the power to do this by offsetting non-government saving desire with an increase in aggregate net financial assets through deficits and targeted spending and transfers.

Lars P. Syll’s Blog
The witch called ‘confidence fairy’
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Arlie Green — Accounting 101 – applied to government debt

MMT in the news.

Los Altos Town Crier
Accounting 101 – applied to government debt
Arlie Green | Certified Financial Planner and principal at Cognizant Wealth Advisor

Tyler Cowen — What the hell is going on?

Donald Trump may get the nuclear suitcase, a cranky “park bench” socialist took Hillary Clinton to the wire, many countries are becoming less free, and the neo-Nazi party came very close to assuming power in Austria. I could list more such events.
Haven’t you, like I, wondered what is up? What the hell is going on?
I don’t know, but let me tell you my (highly uncertain) default hypothesis. I don’t see decisive evidence for it, but it is a kind of “first blast” attempt to fit the basic facts while remaining within the realm of reason.…
Marginal Revolution
What the hell is going on?
Tyler Cowen | Holbert C. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and serves as chairman and general director of the Mercatus Center

J. W. Mason's Blog Links for May 25, 2016

Saves me some trouble putting up links.

J. W. Mason's Blog
Links for May 25, 2016
JW Mason | Assistant Professor of Economics, John Jay College, City University of New York

Jessica Schemer and Lawrence Michel — As union membership has fallen, the top 10 percent have been getting a larger share of income

As union membership has fallen over the last few decades, the share of income going to the top 10 percent has steadily increased. Union membership fell to 11.1 percent in 2014, where it remained in 2015 (not shown in the figure). The share of income going to the top 10 percent, meanwhile, hit 47.2 percent in 2014—only slightly lower than 47.8 percent in 2012, the highest it has been since 1917 (the earliest year data are available). When union membership was at its peak (33.4 percent in 1945) the share of income going to the top 10 percent was only 32.6 percent.…
For "unions" substitute "labor bargaining power." In the view of neoclassical economics, trade unions that increase labor bargaining power are against the free market because they permit rent extraction to occur that would not occur if labor contracts were negotiated individually between "economic units," firms and individual workers being the units.

Economic Policy Institute
As union membership has fallen, the top 10 percent have been getting a larger share of income
Jessica Schemer and Lawrence Mishel

Martin Khor — Free Trade in Rhetoric, Not in Practice

Western countries commonly proclaim the great benefits of free trade and the evils of protectionism.
In reality, many developed countries practise double standards, insisting on free trade in areas where they are strong, whilst using protectionist measures in sectors where they are weak.
In the worst case, within the same sector they have designed rules that impose liberalisation on developing countries but allow themselves to maintain high protectionism.
An outstanding example is in agriculture, in which the rich counties are not competitive.If “free trade” were to be practised, a large part of global agricultural trade would be dominated by the more efficient developing countries.….
But until today, agricultural trade is dominated instead by the major developed countries.…

David F. Ruccio — Marxism and journalism

The appointment in England of Noreena Hertz as ITV’s economics editor has raised the issue of whether or not a Marxist (which she has been accused of but denies she is) can do an effective and fair job in reporting the news.
I certainly don’t see why not. Nor does Chris Dillow
I’ve made much the same argument in teaching economics. In both cases, Marxists are forced into the position of knowing both the mainstream stuff and the Marxian critique, which those firmly ensconced within mainstream thought simply aren’t equipped to handle. It isn’t impartiality but it is a kind of openness to alternative perspectives.
And then, of course, there’s the example of Marx himself, who served as a journalist—both to earn a living and to disseminate his analysis of the world—for much of his life, most famously for Horace Greeley’s New York Daily Tribune.
This is from an interview with Jim Ledbetter, who edited Dispatches for the New York Tribune: Selected Journalism of Karl Marx….
Occasional Links & Commentary
Marxism and journalism
David F. Ruccio | Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame

Brad DeLong — Chris Hedges quoting Richard Rorty on Edward Luttwak: The Revenge of the Lower Classes and the Rise of American Fascism

From 1998: Chris Hedges quoting Richard Rorty on Edward Luttwak: The Revenge of the Lower Classes and the Rise of American Fascism: "Richard Rorty in his last book, ‘Achieving Our Country’...
...written in 1998, presciently saw where our postindustrial nation was headed.
It might be premature to conclude "overwrought."

WCEG — The Equitablog
Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Gehenna: Overwrought. But prescient for the Age of Trump.
Brad DeLong

Brad DeLong — Atif Mian and Amir Sufi: Who Bears the Cost of Recessions? The Role of House Prices and Household Debt

“We… show… differential shocks to household net worth coming from elevated household debt and the collapse in house prices play an underappreciated role…
WCEG — The Equitablog
Atif Mian and Amir Sufi: Who Bears the Cost of Recessions? The Role of House Prices and Household Debt
Brad DeLong

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

James Carden — Does Russia Have Reason to Fear?

Oh, but never mind. Having abandoned any pretense that other great powers have definable (and eminently defensible) security interests of their own, American-led NATO is blithely plunging the Western world into fighting Cold War 2.0.
Yet, given the wide support candidates Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have been receiving this election cycle, it is just possible that the heretofore somnolent American public may be waking up to the long post-Cold War con perpetuated by the country’s governing elites over the need for global American hegemony.
But I wouldn’t count on it.
Slouching toward (nuclear) war with Russia and China.

Consortium News
Does Russia Have Reason to Fear?
James Carden, contributing writer for The Nation and editor of The American Committee for East-West Accord’s, who previously served as an advisor on Russia to the Special Representative for Global Inter-governmental Affairs at the US State Department

Green Party's Jill Stein Shares Her "Plan B" for Bernie Sanders Supporters: A Green New Deal — Candice Bernd interviews Jill Stein

As Bernie Sanders' voters begin facing the question of whether or not to support Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton if she becomes the party's nominee, many of his supporters have pledged never to support her. In fact, voters in both major parties are seeking alternatives in this year's presidential election -- and third-party candidates are seeing an explosion in social media interest in their campaigns.
Jill Stein is the presumptive nominee of the Green Party in 2016. The main planks of her presidential platform include a "Green New Deal," ending mass incarceration and police brutality, ending wars and drone attacks, a $15 per hour federal minimum wage, a single-payer health care system, universal public education and the abolition of student debt, breaking up big banks and nationalizing the Federal Reserve, initiating a global treaty to reverse climate change and ending extreme forms of extraction.
Truthout spoke with Stein before she headed out to Seattle as part of her ongoing "listening tour" of frontline communities struggling for justice. The following interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Sounds good to me.

Not clear on the financing but she mentions QE. May be thinking of overt money financing?

Green Party's Jill Stein Shares Her "Plan B" for Bernie Sanders Supporters: A Green New Deal
Candice Bernd interviews Jill Stein

Mike LaSusa — Brazil's New Government Is Already Planning to Balance the Budget on the Backs of the Poor

Neoliberalism returns to Brazil in force, after Dilma's neoliberalism lite.

MH17 update

Update on MH17. More propaganda, no facts.

Consortium News
More Game-Playing on MH-17?
Robert Parry

See also

Dances with Bears
John Helmer

Nicholas Gruen — Success Means Competing and Cooperating. Adam Smith as You’ve Never Seen Him Before

Free rider problems and twenty-first century public goods
Success Means Competing and Cooperating. Adam Smith as You’ve Never Seen Him Before
Nicholas Gruen | CEO of Lateral Economics

MEMRI — Article In Saudi Daily: U.S. Planned, Carried Out 9/11 Attacks – But Blames Others For Them

Saudi 9/11 truthers.

Article In Saudi Daily: U.S. Planned, Carried Out 9/11 Attacks – But Blames Others For Them


Saudi Government Daily 'Okaz': Senate's Passage Of Bill Allowing To Sue Saudi Arabia For September 11 Attacks Will 'Open Gates Of Hell' For U.S.

The Angry Arab
Why MEMRI can't be trusted: they deliberately mistranslated a word from this man's mouth in order to make him say "slave" about Obama which he never did
This is typical. I have always told you that MEMRI can't be trusted not only because it is part of the propaganda outlets of the Israeli occupation enemy but it also can't be trusted in selections of clips and news articles (going soft on Gulf regimes media these days, eh?), but the translation is either ignorant (the Lebanese who works there don't have a good command of Arabic, clearly) and sometimes purposefully distorted. This loudmouth Algerian journalist is talking about Obama and talks about the history of repression of blacks at the hands of white and then say that the whites "have exploited you" or "subjuctated you" to conquer the Arab world. So MEMRI's translation made him say: that "they have enslaved you", which he never said, clearly MEMRI wanting to put racist words to the man's references to Obama. The Arabic word Sakkara does not mean enslave.

Alexander Mercouris — Putin’s Team is United: Talk of a Purge is Wrong

An article has recently appeared in The Huffington Post which discusses rumours of an imminent purge of liberals from Russia’s government.
According to this view Russia’s President Putin is coming under increasing pressure from hardliners within Russia’s political elite to carry out a thorough purge of Atlanticists and liberals within the government.
The hardliners are also supposedly demanding a thorough overhaul of economic policy. They want Putin to jettison the current liberal oriented free-market policy in favour of an economic mobilisation of the country to withstand the challenge of the West. The details are sketchy but undoubtedly what is being talked about involves the reintroduction of capital controls and of forms of central planning that go far beyond what Russia has now.
The first point to make about this article in The Huffington Post is that it essentially repeats something that was said a month ago in an article by The Saker published by the Unz Review and on his own website. The similarity is in fact so great that I find it impossible to put it down to mere coincidence. There are clearly rumours circulating and both The Saker and the historian Stephen Cohen (the main source for The Huffington Post article) are picking up on them.

What however are the prospects of a purge of liberals happening in Russia?
The short answer I am sure is none.
Mercouris does not address the military aspect of this, which Stephen F. Cohen and The Saker have raised. If the general staff is convinced that NATO is moving against Russia, then the situation is different. But otherwise, the analysis seems to me to be correct. Most of the reporting in the West to the contrary is just wishful thinking.

From the MMT pov, Russia's main economic problem now is the liberal influence that is constraining Russia to follow the failed neoclassical West rather than use the tools available to increase effective demand in order to stimulate investment, as old Keynesians and Post Keynesians would recommend, as well as ramping up supply in areas of shortage in order to alleviate inflation rather than relying on central bank monetarism.

The bottom line is that Russia has vast real resources available and the fiscal tools to employ those resources.

The Duran
Putin’s Team is United: Talk of a Purge is Wrong
Alexander Mercouris

MMT Trader scored me some big profits today!

Long stocks and the S&P E-mini contract. Took out 60 ticks or, $3000 on that trade.

Short 10-year note futures. Took 21 ticks or, $656.25 on that trade.

Most analysts and pundits have been either out of hte stock market or short. I analyze the fiscal flows. (Top line government spending flows.)

That is what has kept me on the right side of the market this whole entire time.

Other positions
Bought Apple, Inc @ 90.67.
Made 187 pips in USDJPY
Made 140 pips in GBPUSD

Plus many more.

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MMT Trader

Home sales up and so are prices

They could lose control of this thing to the upside pretty fast here.

They will raise the risk free rate and more seniors will drop out of the workforce with the higher interest income that will bring; and then we will have labor shortages and increasing prices which will cause them to raise again and so on...