Good summary overall.
It is not discernible what Trump really wants. It might well be that he has not made up his mind, or that he changes his position as the days go by.Of course, "what Trump wants" is quite discernible. He wants to win the negotiation and exactly what "winning" means is never in the interest of the negotiator to disclose. Negotiation is dialectical, involving a series of offers by the parties in a sort of ritual dance, "may the best dancer win."
Singapore got the negotiation process going. The US offer of the US would quite naturally be completely denuclearization as quickly as possible (Bolton had mentioned year). Quite obviously that would be rejected since capitulation was never on the table.
So now we will see whether the negotiation continues "in good faith," or Trump plays the "brinkmanship" card, which he is often wont to do.
Anyway the first round or actual negotiating a deal is now over, ending with "no deal."That was to be expected.
Strategically, this kind of negotiation is very different from business negotiation in that politics is involved on both sides, with both leaders having to bring along their supports and neutralizing their opposition.
For Trump, this first round was largely about neutralizing the domestic opposition by presenting a "hard line."
There are other players involved also, most importantly China, Russia and Japan, all of whom want to see the Korean peninsula denuclearized and North Korea opened up to commerce. This is Kim's goal and that of South Korean President Moon as well. This is consonant with the goal of the US.
However, the US does not want to see the Korean Peninsula become geopolitically neutral as do the other parties. This will be the real sticking point if things get that far.
Moon of Alabama
Pyongyang Talks - How Pompeo Put The Cart Before The Horse
“However, the US does not want to see the Korean Peninsula become geopolitically neutral as do the other parties. This will be the real sticking point if things get that far.”
ReplyDeleteYes. I think this whole Korean thing is about China. We know that China wants to survive and prosper, but the “experts” don’t know what China will do on a day-by-day basis.
Therefore the Empire dances around the Korean issue, hoping to study China’s reactions.
The Empire wants peace. No it doesn’t. Yes it does. No it doesn’t.
The Empire wants North Korea opened for business. No it doesn’t. Yes it does. No it doesn’t.
Pompeo wants to take a hard line on North Korea. No he doesn’t. Yes he does. No he doesn’t. Yes he does.
Endless dancing. Endless attempts to get some kind of rise out of China, so the Empire can probe for weaknesses.
But China just sits there, quietly getting stronger while the Empire gets weaker.