I consider this to be just an opinion, but still, just the same, it's pause for thought for the conspiracists. They think that letting the virus run amok through society will be the best thing for the economy, but it would most likely tank the economy. They believe it won't harm them, but even if less than 1% die, and they are all old people, Covid-19 may leave many with lifelong complications. See photo.
9 comments:
"but it would most likely tank the economy."
It's already tanked the economy.
There is little to no impact on those under 40. The evidence of that is clear. No excess deaths in that cohort - which is the majority of the population. And the one of working age.
The median age of death is over 80.
It's time we worked with the facts, rather than emotional propaganda and dodgy unverified computer models.
The sensible approach to this would be to retire everybody over 60 and allow them to keep out of the way. That frees up jobs for those who are younger who can all move up the tree, freeing up the starter jobs for the youngest workers.
There is no evidential basis for Covid killing any more than a fraction of a percent of the population. The evidence from Sweden is that the projections are an order of magnitude or more out of kilter.
It's time to stop listening to the scaremongers and way past time those making doom and gloom predictions that turn out to be wrong were sacked.
You might be right, but governments scaremongering on purpose is a conspiracy theory.
It would be a fallacy to believe that, when it is a simple result of the operational dynamics.
The actual dynamic is that if you under report deaths and deaths turn out to be more than you predict you will definitely get fired and your career ruined. But if you are out by an order of magnitude then you were just being "cautious" and you get to keep your job.
You get the same with weather forecasts, which predict more gloomy weather than actually happens. Being surprised on the upside isn't a job killer. Being surprised on the downside is.
Nothing to do with conspiracy and everything to do with human feeling and emotion.
"The sensible approach to this would be to retire everybody over 60 and allow them to keep out of the way. That frees up jobs for those who are younger who can all move up the tree, freeing up the starter jobs for the youngest workers."
Not a bad idea. I'm not sure the US is well functioning enough to pull off something like that. We still haven't managed the logistics of sending everyone a $1200 check, and it's been months. And good luck getting congress to fund that, the money would go to ordinary people, which is never popular in Washington (they means tested a measly $1200 for christ's sake).
Way back at the start, Fauci had said it's 10x worse than a regular flu. Looking at the graph of US mortality, 10x isn't too far off. Might be a bit high, but it's not off by an order of magnitude or anything like that. And mortality data doesn't capture the entire disease burden.
Estimates are 12k to 61k deaths per year from the flu. So we're already past 10x a mild flu or 2-3x a pretty bad flu (61k was the estimate for 2017-2018, it's easily visible in the mortality data graphs). So for the time, 10x wasn't a terrible estimate.
“ We still haven't managed the logistics of sending everyone a $1200 check, and it's been months. ”
Yes! And then the MMT people are going all around say8ng govt could administer a JG!
Total joke!
Yeah, I did like the early retirement idea. And younger people can get more jobs.
So Matt is saying that the US can never ever administrate a JG based on its inability today to administer the $1200 handout.
S, maybe you can redefine what a “job” is as sitting around “having no work and no money” then I think you’ll be fine,.. you could just guarantee that outcome in a JG and save the JG....
Neil, facts are great. I suggest you actually look at them.
Fact - of the 4 existing corona viruses, MERS has the longest immunity of about 34 months. The common cold about 6 weeks. We have no vaccines for any of them and we have no proven vaccine for covid-19. If we are lucky sometime next year we might have one, but will we have the capacity to vaccinate 6 billion people every 1-2 years (likely estimate of immunity protection).
Fact - retiring everyone over 60 doesn't move them to a bubble. Who do you think sells people over 60 their groceries? Who do you think are the workers in nursing homes? Are you proposing that under 60's commit to never visiting their parents and grandparents?
The healthcare system can't handle an out of control contagion as that over 60 population will get infected and at this time herd immunity quite honestly may never be achievable as by the time we get to 70% recovered a growing pool of formerly recovered will likely loose their immunity to it and become candidates for re-infection (absent a vaccine which has yet to be developed and proven to be effective).
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