Sputnik — A World Without Oil and Uranium: Russian Scientists Research Clean, Safe Nuclear Power Generation

The ITER will use a mixture of hydrogen isotopes, deuterium and tritium, as fuel....

 Sputnik International

A World Without Oil and Uranium: Russian Scientists Research Clean, Safe Nuclear Power Generation

Sputnik — Tech Analyst Calls Jio Partnership With Qualcomm to Bring 5G to India a 'Breath of Fresh Air'

US-based chipmaker Qualcomm hosted a virtual event on Tuesday night and announced that in partnership with the Indian telco Jio, they were able to achieve a superfast internet speed of 1GBPS while working on developing independent 5G tech for India. Jio, with 385 million users, is India’s largest telco, headed by Asia’s richest man, Mukesh Ambani.

Sputnik International
Tech Analyst Calls Jio Partnership With Qualcomm to Bring 5G to India a 'Breath of Fresh Air'

U.S. Broadens Sanctions On Russia-Led Nord Stream 2 Pipeline — Charles Kennedy

It won't stop the project and will further alienate German and other European firms, who will view this as anti-competitive regardless of what spin the US puts on it.

Oilprice
U.S. Broadens Sanctions On Russia-Led Nord Stream 2 Pipeline

Charles Kennedy

See also

TASS
Kremlin slams US sanctions against Nord Stream 2 as 'hostile takeover competition'

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Streams On Twitch With Hasan Piker And Pokimane, Draws Over 430,000 Viewers — Nathan Grayson

AOC has embraced MMT and is advised by MMT economists. What Stephani Kelton has done to popularize MMT generally, AOC is likely to do with the younger generations of digital natives.

Kotaku
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Streams On Twitch With Hasan Piker And Pokimane, Draws Over 430,000 Viewers
Nathan Grayson

See also

Sputnik International
AOC Calls on People to Vote While Twitch Streaming, Sets Twitter Abuzz

What MMT says: a chance for the critics to take a pop — Richard Murphy

One of the regular stream of commentators who claim that MMT is wrong about everything it says has appeared on the blog.

So, I issue a challenge. What is wrong about the following, which is what MMT says?…,

Several MMT point follow. 

Tax Research UK
What MMT says: a chance for the critics to take a pop
Richard Murphy | Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London; Director of Tax Research UK; non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics, and a member of the Progressive Economy Forum

Lawrence Summers attempts to criticise MMT – try not to die of laughter. Ralph Musgrave

Has Larry Summers actually read any MMT literature? MMT economists have already counter all his objections. 

My guess. This is political. The man cannot be that obtuse economically, can he? With the prospect of a Biden win, Summers is trying to head off MMT politically as a Democratic Establishment  stalwart vying for power and position.

RALPHONOMICS
Lawrence Summers attempts to criticise MMT – try not to die of laughter.

Ralph Musgrave

Lars P. Syll — What is ‘effective demand’?

Jesper Jespersen untangles the concept and shows how Keynes, by taking uncertainty seriously, contributed to forming an analytical alternative to the prevailing mainstream general equilibrium framework:

Lars P. Syll’s Blog
What is ‘effective demand’?
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Monnaie, pouvoir et régimes monétaires — Pavlina R. Tcherneva

For the record.

MMT France
Monnaie, pouvoir et régimes monétaires
par
Pavlina R. Tcherneva
Levy Economics Institute of Bard College
Mars 2016
Traduction par Robert Cauneau – MMT France

World’s vaccine testing ground deems Chinese COVID candidate ‘the safest, most promising’

Of five top candidates, authorities have singled out an experimental Chinese vaccine.

Brazil is one of the world’s top COVID-19 vaccine testing grounds. Now officials there say that CoronaVac, the experimental COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese developer Sinovac, is the safest of the coronavirus immunizations evaluated in the country so far.

“The first results of the clinical study conducted in Brazil prove that among all the vaccines tested in the country, CoronaVac is the safest, the one with the best and most promising rates,” São Paulo Gov. João Doria told reporters in Brazil on Monday.

 Fortune 

World’s vaccine testing ground deems Chinese COVID candidate ‘the safest, most promising’

Bill Mitchell — Video – An economy that guarantees health and wellbeing for all

Today, on my blog-light day, I have a video of a recent event where I spoke (with other speakers being John Quiggin and Noel Pearson). The event was in conjunction with the Public Health Association of Australia’s annual conference and we are discussing the interface between health and the economy and the right to work and income security. It was an interesting and very civilised discussion. And when you are through watching that, we also have a ‘provocation’ to consider and then some jazz. All the interests of advancing humanity!

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Video – An economy that guarantees health and wellbeing for all
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Nathan Rich - USA COVID-19 Timeline Part 1

How the Trump administration failed to deal effectively with Covid-19.

IMF Admits China Has Overtaken The US As The World’s Largest Economy; But Why Is The Media Silent?

The world is waking up to a new reality post the devastating pandemic that brought everything to a grinding halt. One of them is the rise of China as the undisputed new economic superpower.

It looks like state planning works much better than the neoliberal free market, and I'm sure everyone knew that anyway, but the elite wanted to have their finger in everything, so it all got privatised. 

The West's handling of the Covid pandemic was disastrous, so China is now out at front. 

China’s economic growth rate has been growing at a mind-boggling rate of around 10% for almost the last 30 years. The country has witnessed startling growth in every sector, with the manufacturing sector being the engine of overall resurgence. It has made unstoppable advances in its military power, building and accumulating world-class defence equipment.

The world can no longer deny China’s superpower. It’s now the world’s most powerful economy, a fact we can no longer brush under the carpet. The country’s rise to the top was inevitable, but no one had expected it to be so swift.

IMF Admits China Has Overtaken The US As The World’s Largest Economy; But Why Is The Media Silent?

Nonlinear Models Give No Escape From r* — Brian Romanchuk

The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model literature is ever-growing, and new features are being continuously added. This makes it difficult to make generalisations about the literature. However, from a macro modelling perspective, we are mainly interested in models that might be used by a central bank to set interest rates. Even if we are not central bankers ourselves, we presumably want to understand how central bankers see their policy lever as working....

Bond Economics
Nonlinear Models Give No Escape From r*
Brian Romanchuk

Power >>>>> money — Scott Sumner

How about letting the market work? Why not let the price of monoclonal antibodies rise until supply equals demand?

If we did so, a thousands medical ethicists would scream about how rationing by price favors the rich.

Suppose instead that we ration by political power—give it first to people with lots of clout:

The Money Illusion
Power >>>>> money

Scott Sumner | Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University

Another Thomas Palley Critique Of Neochartalism — Ramanan

For the record.

My view on this is that it fails to correctly present the MMT position (again). 

MMT is a macroeconomic theory based on institutional analysis rather than being either an axiomatic system like conventional economics or a socio-economic and political analysis like Marxian economics. That is to say, MMT is framed in terms of the existing world system. It is an alternative to "neoliberalism," in so far as it is in the Paleo-Keynesian tradition (versus the New Keynesian or Samuelson New Synthesis). That is to say, as a macroeconomic theory it does not deal directly with social and political issues that go beyond the field of economics as it is currently practiced.

However, MMT also has implications for political economy and policy, although as an economic theory it doesn't venture into these domains. For example, the adoption of the MMT JG is not a policy choice. It is an economic requirement for optimizing use of available real resource to reduce or eliminate waste as a form of inefficiency.

Individual MMT economists also take policy stances based on potential that MMT shows but independently of MMT as an economic theory. This can be obscured by their appealing to MMT in many cases to justify their views. But there is nothing in principle preventing different political approaches using the knowledge generated by MMT.

The arguments and rationale criticizing MMT presented here are generally social and political rather than concerned with economic economic theory. That is they involved economic understanding applied to policy. 

The economic issue here is at bottom economic rent, rent-seeking, and rent extraction based on asymmetry and leading to greater asymmetry. Almost MMT economists and MMT allies like Michael Hudson, James K. Galbraith, and Steve Keen address such issues, as well as other social and political issues. Their views of these matters is diverse.

Warren Mosler comes in for specific criticism, but the record in incorrect. I have discussed this with him and his position is rathe to preempt economic rent, rent-seeking, and rent extraction to address inequality and its social, political and economic effects before clawing back the residual using taxation. Using taxation as the first tool is not the most efficient or most effective way to go.

Bill Mitchell addresses the totalitarian effects of neoliberalism and the necessity for national sovereignty including currency sovereignty to address this scourge that threatens the world system socially, politically and economically. Of course, Michael Hudson reputation in this regard is well-known.

The Case for Concerted Action
Another Thomas Palley Critique Of Neochartalism
V. Ramanan

India’s loss of Farzad-B is only the beginning — M. K. Bhadrakumar

But the loss of Farzad-B is only the beginning. The India-Iran relationship awaits a strategic setback. Looking ahead, the forthcoming Malabar Exercise with Australia’s participation heralds a tumultuous period ahead where India and Iran’s core interests will no longer be reconcilable.

Without doubt, India’s Quad strategy will complicate its relations with Iran. None of the Persian Gulf states (or Israel) will want to be part of the Quad, either, since they are in the same predicament as the ASEAN countries — stakeholders in a thriving economic partnership with China.…

India, struggling economically, is throwing in with the other "democracies," against China and Iran. This vastly complicates India's relations with Russia. Brilliant move or monumental blunder. Only time will tell. 

PM Modi is trying to play both the US and Russia. Not going to work. India will have to make a strategic choice, which potentially excludes it from much of Asia. The US, Australia and Japan, the other members of the Quad, are not going to do much to help India economically. India is too unstable politically, for one thing, and it is in the midst of sectarian struggle between the Hindu majority and the Islamic minority (backed by nuclear Pakistan).

And then there is this:

To be sure, the unfolding militarisation of the Indian Ocean” will only be seen as an expansionist policy by a host of regional powers — not only China but also Pakistan, Iran and, possibly, Russia — and most littoral states along Africa’s east coast.

It will isolate India in its region and will provoke counter-strategies eventually to contain India’s ambitions. After all, there is nothing like absolute security. No amount of waffling by Indian diplomats that Quad is not be regarded as anything more than the BRICS or SCO will convince India’s neighbours.

All this is especially significant  for the world system since India and China both have a billon plus population. The degree of their success or failure, or just limping along, will have a broad and deep influence on the rest of the world in this century, either pushing the ROW forward or creating a drag. 

However, the comparison between India and China is not one-to-one. They are very different systems. So far, China is kicking ass economically with the largest economy in the world measured on the basis of purchasing power parity (PPP). Conversely, India is still struggling as a developing country that hasn't yet hit on a successful development strategy or a political system that is manageable.

Both are civilizational states with very ancient histories. But China has a single language and long imperial history underlying its meritocratic administrative system. India was not united under one rule until the British Raj and that has turned out to be a very mixed blessing, for it puts India at odds with its civilizational history. In addition, only the upper tiers adopted the British manner of life, creating a separation between the tiers of society that does not exist in China. Social mobility is further limited by the remnant of a caste system, making liberal reform difficult.

India Punchline

India’s loss of Farzad-B is only the beginning
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service

See also

The Hindu (India)
Quad should eventually become formalised, says top U.S. Official (Asian NATO under US)

Sriram Lakshman

Russophrenia – or How a Collapsing Country Runs the World — Patrick Armstrong

Funny.

Strategic Culture Foundation (allegedly a Russian government front)
Russophrenia – or How a Collapsing Country Runs the World

Patrick Armstrong

See also at SCF

Why You Won’t Find Us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube

See also from Patrick Lawrence.

Consortium News
PATRICK LAWRENCE: The Damage Russiagate Has Done
October 19, 2020

Empirical Testing Of Macro Models — Brian Romanchuk

From a bond market practitioner's perspective, model testing is straightforward: does it make money? The ability to make money after model implementation (and not just "out of sample") is a simple quantitative metric -- although one might need to wait for a large enough sample to test this. Not everyone is a market participant, and they want to evaluate models on other metrics (e.g., does it help guide policy decisions?). However, the key insight of the "does is make money?" metric is that it is related to the more vague: "does it offer useful information about the future?" It is entirely possible for a model to have some statistical properties that are seen as "good" -- yet offer no useful information about the future.

Usefulness in Forecasting and Pricing

Although one might be able to make money from a mathematical model any number of ways, I am considering two types of financial models that are of interest.

• Forecasting models that generate buy/sell signals.
• Pricing models. Although this sounds unusual in a macroeconomics context, this is related to DSGE models, given their similarity to arbitrage-free pricing models (link to previous discussion).

Forecasting models are probably what most people would think of, the structure of DSGE models implies a need to worrying about pricing concepts. The key observation one can make about financial forecasting models is that they are not evaluated based on statistical tests (r-squared, whatever), rather the profits they generate after model creation. That is, passing statistical tests does not translate into a useful model.

Since there is less to say about pricing models, I will discuss them first....

Bond Economics
Empirical Testing Of Macro Models
Brian Romanchuk

An open letter to the Hon. Minister for Finance and Economic Planning: Can Ghana afford it? — Papa Sam Blankson and Anita Yankey

 MMT continues to get around. Now Ghana. Good letter.

Seems that The Deficit Myth is sweeping the earth.

JoyOnline
An open letter to the Hon. Minister for Finance and Economic Planning: Can Ghana afford it?
Papa Sam Blankson, MSc. Economics (Money, Banking & Finance)/ over 8 Years of Combined Experience in Banking & Asset Management. Anita Yankey, MSc. Finance/ BSc. Economics & Finance/ over eight years of combined experience in Asset Management and Corporate Communication

How will we repay our vast debt pile? Do we even need to? — David C Stevenson

And the fact that we are even discussing a once-outlandish theory such as MMT so openly today stems precisely from the difficulties that central banks have encountered in generating sustainable inflation.

So while it’s certainly an issue to watch, it’s perhaps also wise to be wary of taking an inflationary future for granted....

Money Week

How will we repay our vast debt pile? Do we even need to?

David C Stevenson in association with PIMCO

ZH — "Americans Must Wake Up To The Ugly Reality" - China Is Now The World's Largest Economy

 

I was aware of PPP versus NGDP/exchange rate but not that the IMF and CIA are on to it, too.

Recognizing this reality, over the past decade, the CIA and the IMF have developed a more appropriate yardstick for comparing national economies, which is called PPP (purchasing power parity).

As the IMF Report explains, PPP “eliminates differences in price levels between economies” and thus compares national economies in terms of how much each nation can buy with its own currency at the prices items sell for there. While MER answers how much Chinese would get at American prices, PPP answers how much Chinese do get at Chinese prices....

Explaining its decision to switch from MER to PPP in its annual assessment of national economies—which is available online in the CIA Factbook—the CIA noted that “GDP at the official exchange rate [MER GDP] substantially understates the actual level of China's output vis-a-vis the rest of the world.” Thus, in its view, PPP “provides the best available starting point for comparisons of economic strength and wellbeing between economies.”...

Mixing economics and finance often obscures the economic reality, economics being "really" about the production, distribution and consumption cycle. So economic comparison involves breaking this out. by deconstructing the aggregates for comparison. 

Zero Hedge
"Americans Must Wake Up To The Ugly Reality" - China Is Now The World's Largest Economy
Tyler Durden

Is Pope Francis’s new encyclical an attack on capitalism? — Philip Booth

Peter Booth explains the key features of the pope's recent encyclical. 

It is not an attack on "capitalism" as such but rather an attack on neoliberalism as a political theory based on economic liberalism ("bourgeois" liberalism). There are many varieties of "capitalism" and "socialism," and also a combination thereof. 

I would say that it is an approach to "left" liberalism intended as an antidote to the excesses of "right" liberalism. Right liberalism focuses on individuality and freedom, whereas left liberalism is about harmonizing freedom, equality and community, e.g, through distributivism with respect to Catholic social teaching. Right liberalism is the predominant variety in the US and UK, whereas left liberalism is predominant in Europe, or at least was until the rise of neoliberalism.

This encyclical is also an attempt to harmonize liberalism and traditionalism. Implicit is the view that this century is about the historical dialectic involving liberalism as championing individuality and individual freedom and traditionalism as championing wisdom as the integration of values in a culture or civilization. There have been many varieties of each on the table historically. 

It is essentially a document on the foundations of politics and economics in a values system underlying a socio-economic system — local, national, regional, and global. The pope views the "golden rule" as the common basis and unitary principle, some version of which is found in all traditions. 

This has been called "enlightened self-interest," which is different from "altruism." Altruism requires a highly developed cognitive-affective level of awareness, whereas enlightened self-interest applies to all rational beings. It's beginnings are found in sub-rational and less than fully rational creatures, too, as the dawning of reciprocity. Reciprocity also underlies market behavior.

IEA
Is Pope Francis’s new encyclical an attack on capitalism?

Philip Booth | Senior Academic Fellow at the Institute of Economic Affairs and Professor of Finance, Public Policy and Ethics at St. Mary’s University, Twickenham. He also holds the position of Dean of Education, Humanities and Social Sciences at St. Mary's having previously been Director of Research and Public Engagement

Originally published in The Tablet (Catholic newspaper)

FRED — Renewables have increased the capacity for electricity production : So, capacity utilization has decreased

As we’ve discussed in a previous post, electricity production has outpaced sales. That suggests a growing number of households and businesses generate some or most of their own electricity. Today, a related idea sparks our curiosity: the ongoing decrease in capacity utilization of electric power generation, transmission, and distribution....

FRED Blog
Renewables have increased the capacity for electricity production : So, capacity utilization has decreased

Estimated “house effects” (biases of pre-election surveys from different pollsters) and here’s why you have to be careful not to overinterpret them — Andrew Gelman

I am refraining from posting on political matters during the heat of the election. 

But here is some statistical analysis of polls that is interesting from the point of view of signal to noise ratio. Polling is inherently rather noisy.

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Estimated “house effects” (biases of pre-election surveys from different pollsters) and here’s why you have to be careful not to overinterpret them
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

The long-term unemployed are not an inflation constraint in a recovery — Bill Mitchell

I gave some advice to a politician last week who had read some MMT literature that he said indicated that using the Job Guarantee reduces inflationary pressures in a recovery relative to a situation where a nation had an unemployment buffer stock. I was surprised by the question because the assertions didn’t appear congruent with the facts. It appeared to be rehearsing and endorsing the standard neoliberal supply-side agenda that defined the so-called ‘activation’ approach to unemployment, which militated against job creation programs in favour of training initiatives – the full employability rather than the full employment mindset. The fact is that long-term unemployment always lags behind the overall unemployment movements given it takes time for people to work their way through the duration categories until they get to 52 weeks, after which the national statistician terms a person long-term unemployed. The longer the recession the higher average duration of unemployment becomes and the larger the pool of long-term unemployed as people start to flow into that category. However, the way we think about solutions has been influenced by the myths about the way long-term unemployment behaves, which we summarise as the – ‘irreversibility hypothesis’. This idea has influenced governments to rely on training approaches rather than job creation as solutions to unemployment. And, it has led to the various pernicious unemployment management policies where the victims of the system’s failure to create enough jobs are considered culpable in their own misfortune and shunted through a series of compliance processes in order to receive income support, which do little to get them work....

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
The long-term unemployed are not an inflation constraint in a recovery
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Adam Payne - Sweden is moving away from its no-lockdown strategy and preparing strict new rules amid rising coronavirus cases

Dr. Joacim Rocklov of Umea University told The Telegraph that after being an outlier earlier in the year, Sweden was shifting to a strategy closer to those adopted by most other governments.

Adam Payne - Sweden is moving away from its no-lockdown strategy and preparing strict new rules amid rising coronavirus cases

The One-Chart Summary Of All That Is Wrong With The US Financial System: Deposits Over Loans — Tyler Durden

However, while it is hardly surprising that loan growth has refused to pick up during the worst economic depression since the "Great" one, what is certainly remarkable is when one looks at the corresponding bank liability: deposits. Here, there is no such problem, and in fact, in recent quarter (and years), deposits have exploded higher and continued to do so last quarter too.

Why is this notable? Well, for one, it crushes the socialism-enabling "theory" known as MMT, or Modern Money Theory, also known as Helicopter Money. Recall that according to the hodgepodge of confused concerts that were thrown at the wall in hopes of coming up with some comprehensive monetary theory, from the perspective of Modern Monetary Theory private bank lending is unconstrained by the quantity of reserves the bank holds at any point in time. In other words, according to MMT loans create deposits (see here, here, and here). Only... clearly in reality that's not the case.

More financial illiteracy. 

What is actually happening is increased liquidity preference (reducing velocity), tighter credit owing to rising risk and uncertainty in an economic contraction based on an exogenous factor (pandemic) that is poorly understood so far, along with historically high (like humongous) government spending (fiscal injection) in relation to taxation (fiscal withdrawal). So the stock of deposits is increasing over the stock of loans.

Zero Hedge
The One-Chart Summary Of All That Is Wrong With The US Financial System: Deposits Over Loans
Tyler Durden

The four failure modes of Enlightenment values — Jason Smith

Something to think from a physicist about on applying a scientific approach in philosophy, ethics and qualitative values being "philosophy."

Be forewarned that MMT comes in for some criticism. I will leave to the reader to judge how valid it is.

Information Transfer Economics
The four failure modes of Enlightenment values
Jason Smith

See also

The Vineyard of the Saker (quite a bit about the paradoxes of liberalism)

Tiktok – How Trump Failed America

Allen Yu

Dr Joe Campbell is - Covid-19 and Zinc

Extra zinc may only be necessary if you are deficient in it, just the same, studies show it can reduce inflammation, so doctors are giving it to Trump to treat his coronavirus infection. 

Central Banks Are Always Involved With Government Finance — Brian Romanchuk

I have been seeing quite a few comments to the effect that central banks are propping up government bond markets now, and what happens if that stops? This is akin to saying the Bears 46 defence was not that good if they did not have all those players who were tackling their unlucky opponents. That is, that is how the system works, and it is a basic misunderstanding to expect things to be different....

Bond Economics
Central Banks Are Always Involved With Government Finance
Brian Romanchuk