Sunday, October 25, 2020

New role for China and Russia – and how after a Biden victory? — Paul Schmutz Schaller

 On the world stage, profound changes are under way. Obviously, China and Russia have lost the confidence that the West will contribute to the solution of the world’s problems in some constructive manner. China and Russia have now accepted their role as the leading forces with the responsibility of holding the world together. The West held this role for centuries, but this time is over. The West has essentially become destructive. The West has lost the power of solving problems and now use her resources mainly for creating problems. In my eyes, this is the central evolution of the last months and it is an epochal change....

The Vineyard of the Saker
New role for China and Russia – and how after a Biden victory?
Paul Schmutz Schaller for The Saker Blog

The Chinese Uyghur Dark Legend and Washington’s Campaign to Counter Chinese Economic Rivalry — Stephen Gowans


Longish and detailed. Not mostly about the Uyghurs.

What's Left
The Chinese Uyghur Dark Legend and Washington’s Campaign to Counter Chinese Economic Rivalry
Stephen Gowans

Thomas Piketty — What to do with Covid debt?

According to Challenges, France’s 500 largest fortunes have thus risen from €210 to €730 billion between 2010 and 2020 (from 10% to 30% of GDP). Such a development is socially and politically unsustainable....
The whole history of public debt shows this: money alone cannot offer a peaceful solution to a problem of this magnitude, because it leads in one way or another to uncontrolled distributive consequences. It was by resorting to exceptional levies on the better-off that the large public debts of the post-war period were extinguished and that the social and productive pact of the following decades was rebuilt. Let’s bet that the same will be true in the future.
Le Monde — Le Blog de Thomas Piketty
What to do with Covid debt?
Thomas Piketty | Directeur d'études à l'Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, Professeur à l'Ecole d'économie de Paris/Paris School of Economics, and Co-directeur, World Inequality Lab/World Inequality Database

Arvin Ash - Delayed Choice Quantum Eraser: Shocking Results may show Future Affects Past

 I'm going to have watch this one a few times, I think. 




What Does Democracy Mean To The Chinese? [Street Interview] | ASIAN BOSS

In the West changing the government only makes a minor difference to policy. We have freedom of speech although it does not make a lot of difference. 

In China people like their government and are fairly happy with their freedoms. The Chinese people being interviewed in the video below seem to be very happy and relaxed. 

Despite a recent report that China is poised to overtake the U.S. economy by 2020, China still remains very much a mystery in the eyes of the Western world and is often portrayed by the Western media as a communist country where its citizens have no freedom. So, we hit the streets of Beijing, China to ask ordinary Chinese people what democracy and freedom mean to them. This is what they had to say.

The opinions expressed in this video are those of individual interviewees alone and do not reflect the views of ASIAN BOSS or the general Chinese population.




Harvard University 15 year Independent research.

In 2016, the last year the survey was conducted, 95.5 percent of respondents were either “relatively satisfied” or “highly satisfied” with Beijing.


Long-term survey reveals Chinese government satisfactio


 Long-term survey reveals Chinese government satisfactio


Falling r* Is No Accident — Brian Romanchuk

A great deal of significance has been attached to the fall in r*, which is the current preferred term for what was known as the natural rate of interest. My belief is that this fall is not due to structural factors in the real economy, rather it is an artefact of the means of estimating r*, as well as the reaction function of New Keynesian central bankers....
Bond Economics
Falling r* Is No Accident
Brian Romanchuk

Lars P. Syll — Reforming economics

Apt quote, from FT of all places.

Lars P. Syll’s Blog
Reforming economics
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Saturday, October 24, 2020

It's Official: Solar Is the Cheapest Electricity in History — Caroline Delbert

Popular Mechanics
It's Official: Solar Is the Cheapest Electricity in History
Caroline Delbert

Why Do North Korean Defectors Keep Changing Their Stories

 



Some of the defectors’ stories seem downright unbelievable. And perhaps there’s evidence that they are, in fact, fabricated. Here’s what we know.

Are the Defectors Telling the Truth? Why the Horrifying Stories of Life in North Korea May Be Fabricated

KV - Toxic Individualism

Individualism vs Colectivism, is there a correct balance? 



Carl Jung was said to have had scintillating intelligence, but he found the works of Hegel impenetrable, despite this, Professor Sean Kelly found a great deal of similarly between their works when it came to self-consciousness (ego-consciousness / self-awareness) and individualism, where both believed mankind was further moving towards increased self-awareness, or self-consciousness as Jung and Hegel would described it. The word individual comes from the word indivisible, meaning we cannot be split any further. The collective has been divided into individual identities. 

Primitive man projected his soul onto the universe, so the trees, the sky, the Sun, the weather, the stars, ect, all had spirits. Man's primitive consciousness was hardly separated from his surroundings, said Hegel and Jung. 

Both Hegel and Jung saw the West as the pinnacle of civilisation, along with it's high level of individual self-consciousness. In Rome, they said, only the emperor was an individual and everyone else would just see themselves as part of the group, and it was the same in China and all other third-world countries, they added. They were more primitive collective societies. 

Christianity greatly increased the sense of individualism and self-consciousness, both Jung and Hegel believed. God knew every hair on your body, and there was a banquet in heaven when the lost sheep was found, so every individual person was very important to God.

The Bible eventually became translated into German, and then other languages, like English, so now every person could read the Bible, which led on to the Protestant reformation. People now had a much closer, more personal, individual relationship with God. 

Protestant Christianity produced Calvinism, which said that hard work and success signified that God had chosen you to go to heaven. And so the Calvinists - being puritans - did not spend their money on worldly possessions, but instead ploughed all their profits back into their businesses to grow them, and in this way they felt that they had been chosen. Modern capitalism was then born.

At that period in time most people were God-fearing Christians, and so for the first time in history it became possible for people to leave their money in an institution, like putting an investment into a company, and then be able to go back the next day to find their money was still there. This meant that banks and the stock market now became possible, which meant that western civilisation could make spectacular advancements, eventually leading to the industrial Revolution, much of which was funded by shares. This new Western sense of individualism eventually led to democracy where every person got a vote. 

But were Carl Jung and Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel both unwittingly intoxicated by Western hubris? They believed that Western civilisations were the most advanced, and that our self-consciousness (as individualism) was more heightened than those of people in the East, but could this belief in the absolute importance of the individual over the collective now be holding us back?

Neoliberalism, the Ayn Rand mentality, the extreme right, the populist alt-left, libertarianism, etc, all seem to be examples of corrosive individualism. 

Many people in the West refuse to wear masks, or practice social distancing, despite there being a serious pandemic going on which could kill millions. They say the economy needs to be saved first, which would save more lives in the long run, but they also object to wearing masks which could save the economy as well as lives, and so their concern does not seem to be all that genuine. It appears that they want to carry on the way they have always done, with little regard for anyone else, because they believe that coronavirus is harmless to them. 

The East was once considered less advanced than the West, but I'm beginning to believe that academics like Carl Jung and Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel may have got it wrong. The East in many ways seems to be more cultured and civilised compared to some Western countries, and despite our emphasis on the value of the individual, the East seems to place far more value on an individual's life. 


In the video below Chinese children are being shown how to use public transport. There is little girl with a walking stick, but look at the little boy.

The libertarians might find this disturbing as it looks like social conditioning to produce a conformist, compliant society. But to me, it's culture, refinement, and civilisation. 




Stephanie Kelton Explains Taxes, Debunks National Debt Myth, Talks Dollar Depreciation — TheRealHeisenberg

Stephanie Kelton needs no introduction.

The face of Modern Monetary Theory in a world suddenly awake to the realities of government finance in currency-issuing nations with high levels of monetary sovereignty, Kelton catapulted to near celebrity status in 2020, as the pandemic compelled policymakers to deliver trillions in stimulus virtually overnight to avert a global depression.

Kelton’s The Deficit Myth became a New York Times bestseller over the summer. It’s a quick read, and the straightforward, at times colloquial, cadence makes it highly amenable to everyday people, no small feat for an economics volume.

If The Deficit Myth reads like a prescription for policymakers suffering from a kind of self-inflicted psychosis, that’s probably because it is....
AlphaExchange — The Heisenberg Report
Stephanie Kelton Explains Taxes, Debunks National Debt Myth, Talks Dollar Depreciation
TheRealHeisenberg

The Tragedy of the ‘Tragedy of the Commons’ — Matto Mildenberger

The man who wrote one of environmentalism’s most-cited essays was a racist, eugenicist, nativist and Islamaphobe—plus his argument was wrong....
Garrett Hardin argued for privatization of the commons to increase efficiency and effectiveness of use under pure capitalism. 

Scientific American
The Tragedy of the ‘Tragedy of the Commons’
Matto Mildenberger | assistant professor of environmental politics at the University of California, Santa Barbara

See also

Moon of Alabama
Putin On The Role Of The State In The Economy

RT
‘Pragmatic conservative’ Putin rejects totalitarian rule, but won’t embrace Western liberal democracy as Russia goes its own way

Chengdu library, China

 










Chengdu library, China

Contemporary inequality is a challenge to economics —Peter Radford

The challenge of contemporary inequality is not just to the cohesion of modern society it is also a challenge to economics, because it is economics and its values that sit squarely within the social framework that has allowed inequality to become so pervasive and debilitating. We have built a society resting on only one view of liberty and equality, that of the economic sphere, rather than on a more holistic view that allows the inclusion of other spheres. We persist in believing ourselves as free, but it is a harsh and hollow freedom built upon individuality and isolated action, rather than on solidarity and communal action.

There are economists of a certain type who question whether there is any distortion produced by inequality. They often repeat the claim that inequality is a benign consequence, a side effect of little interest, to the march of economic progress and the accumulation of modern prosperity. It is a profound error to think this. Then again these same people are often oblivious to the existence and importance of society, so they regard themselves as bereft of such an error.…

Challenge or opportunity? From POV of neoliberalism, inequality is the triumph of conventional economics (trickle down, TINA). 

Real-World Economics Review Blog
Contemporary inequality is a challenge to economics
Peter Radford

Scientists Predict Birthrates, Marriage, Gender Roles Will Change Dramatically in Post-Pandemic World — University of California - Los Angeles

As marriage rates plummet and people postpone reproduction in a virus-plagued world, some nations’ populations will shrink and fall precipitously below “replacement level,” the authors write. These birthrate drops, in turn, can have cascading social and economic consequences, affecting job opportunities, straining the ability of countries to provide a safety net for their aging populations and potentially leading to global economic contraction.…

Economic growth is correlated with population growth. 

SciTEchDaily
Scientists Predict Birthrates, Marriage, Gender Roles Will Change Dramatically in Post-Pandemic World
University of California - Los Angeles

See also
Two researchers claim that a single number they call the “political stress indicator” can warn when societies are at risk of erupting into violence. It’s spiking in the US, just like it did before the Civil War.
The way it is stacking up, neither side will accept the legitimacy of the election if it loses. This undermines the legitimacy of the state. In as large and influential a country as the US, this has implications for the world system as the world system and the world order also are challenged.

Buzzfeed 


Also at Fortune
Americans are frantically buying military gear before the election
Rachel Schallom

Modern Monetary Theory and the crisis of capitalism: Part one — Nick Beams


Marxist critique of The Deficit Myth by MMT economist Stephanie Kelton.

WSWS
Modern Monetary Theory and the crisis of capitalism: Part one
Nick Beams

Coyote-gate


Democrat morons all over the place reifying the figurative language and think they are real coyotes....  Same cognitive error  we see the econo-morons do with the figure of speech “money!” all the time.... 

When you employ figurative language as part of your dialogic method and the recipient does not understand it, the default mode is reification.... ie the recipient is left to think that the figurative is literal... 

Dialogic method is manifestly inferior...




Oh... and btw...  CHECKMATE.... AGAIN...  for like the 1,000th time here...





Treasury FX Report not forthcoming

 

I think Trump may have us somehow short the CNY:



Remember this one:



So if China devalues their currency vs USD we “make money!”...

Friday, October 23, 2020

Do The Neochartalists Advocate “Printing Money”? — V. Ramanan

Short answer, no. Ramanan shows why and on the way explains how he thinks that sometimes MMT economists' expressions are either confusing or give opponents an opening to criticize them.

The Case for Concerted Action
V. Ramanan

The time trend in global inequality — James Galbraith and Jaehee Choi

Inspection of trends and changes in inequality gives a strong clue to the sweep of events. There are four trends and three distinct turning points. From 1963-1971, no trend appears, and changes in individual countries are for the most part small. After 1971, while inequality increases in some of the wealthy countries, in much of the world it is declining. After 1980, there is a radical change….
Real-World Economics Review Blog
The time trend in global inequality
 James Galbraith and Jaehee Choi in The Inequality Crisis


The Bill From MMT: Higher Taxes, More Austerity, Rising Inflation Or Eventual Default — Stephen King


Here is the FT "kitchen sink" opinion piece by Stephen King, HSBC’s Senior Economic Adviser and author of ‘Grave New World’ without the paywall.

Zero Hedge
Stephen King

Thursday, October 22, 2020

It's mostly fiscal — Christian Kopf


Regardless of whether it is called MMT, the trend is now mostly fiscal. Monetary policy is over as central banks "used up all their ammo" and the "bazooka" is still smoking, to no effect. We are entering new territory.

OMFIF
It's mostly fiscal
Christian Kopf | Head of Fixed Income Fund Management at Union Investment

George Selgin hates it.

Cato Institute
Ground Proposals for “Helicopter Money”
George Selgin

FT Alphaville is convinced on MMT — Richard Murphy


Good work!

Tax Research UK
FT Alphaville is convinced on MMT

The case for MMT: or why the FT is wrong to publish ill-informed arguments against it
Richard Murphy | Professor of Practice in International Political Economy at City University, London; Director of Tax Research UK; non-executive director of Cambridge Econometrics, and a member of the Progressive Economy Forum

Comments On Palley's MMT Critique — Brian Romanchuk

Thomas Palley is one of the more persistent MMT critics. His article “What’s wrong with Modern Money Theory: macro and political economic restraints on deficit-financed fiscal policy” was published just as I was finishing up this manuscript. Although I am not greatly impressed with the quality of the criticism, it covers many of the topics discussed in this chapter. If one wanted a summary critique (and not rely on my summaries) of major points of dispute, this might be the briefest summary.
Bond Economics
Comments On Palley's MMT Critique
Brian Romanchuk

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Bill Mitchell — Forget the record deficits and public debt – focus on what the net spending is doing to advance well-being

Yesterday (October 21, 2020), the British Office of National Statistics (ONS) released the latest – Public sector finances, UK: September 2020 – which, predictably tells us that government borrowing was “£28.4 billion more than in September 2019 and the third-highest borrowing in any month since records began in 1993” and that the public debt ratio has risen to “103.5% of … GDP … this was the highest debt to GDP ratio since … 1960.” Shock horror. While I yawn. The financial media went to town on the data. The Financial Times article (October 22, 2020) – UK government borrowing reaches record in first half of fiscal year – claimed the second wave that is now sweeping the northern hemisphere “have dampened hopes” that the stimulus “could be quickly scaled back” which has “fuelled concerns over the US’s mounting public debt”. It didn’t clarify as to who was concerned or why. The old canards seem to die slowly. Meanwhile, the IMF has changed tack somewhat after its tawdry display during the GFC. Overall, we should be relaxed about the records being set (deficits, public debt) and focus on what the net spending is doing to advance our interests. Focusing on the financial parameters will just divert our attention away from what is important....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Forget the record deficits and public debt – focus on what the net spending is doing to advance well-being
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

My new podcast episode is out.

DW - More long-term damage caused by COVID-19 than expected | COVID-19 Special

 Viral load seems to make a big difference as to whether you recover quickly, or not. 

Thousands of people of all ages are staying sick for weeks -- even months. A study by Denmark's Aarhus University found a third of corona patients suffered long-term side effects. For some, the virus doesn't just come and go. It stays. The disease can damage the lungs, heart and brain, increasing the risk of long-term health problems.




US to offer developing countries aid to ditch Huawei

The US is also warning developing countries against using Chinese finance agencies


The US praised capitalism, free markets, and globalisation while it was out on top, but now it's rigging the market.

The US is planning to offer billions of dollars in loans to developing countries in the hope of persuading them to use Western alternatives to Chinese companies...

The Telegraph 

The Battle For More Efficient Energy — Haley Zaremba

There is a war going on. And no, it’s not the one you think. This is a war against energy efficiency. The attack is on two fronts: a battle against energy efficiency standards on the part of the current United States administration which is generally anti-regulation, and an attack on the part of everyone’s favorite new common enemy, the novel coronavirus. The global pandemic has hurt nearly every economic sector, and it’s certainly not doing energy efficiency any favors, either.…
Oilprice
The Battle For More Efficient Energy
Haley Zaremba

Sputnik — NATO Military Budgets Rise, But Germany Lags Behind Alliance Defense Spending Goal

A new report by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) shows that more member nations are increasing their defense budgets to reach the alliance’s spending goals, but Germany, which has attracted US President Donald Trump’s ire, has yet to do so....
Sputnik International
NATO Military Budgets Rise, But Germany Lags Behind Alliance Defense Spending Goal