Go to this link to listen to an interview Jim Rogers gave to Bloomberg TV, where he said he was shorting Treasuries.
Here's a chart of the 30-yr Treasury:
Look at the period of October 13. He sold at the absolute bottom!
I don't like to criticize people for bad market calls--it can happen to anyone--but Rogers deserves this. He is a cynical manipulator of people and still operates under an inapplicable paradigm--the gold standard. And the know-nothing media fawns over him.
If he wasn't selling books and if he didn't unload his NYC townhouse, he'd be broke by now. And come to think of it, Peter Schiff's been putting out a few books too, lately.
First rule of investing in a flexible exchange rate, sovereign currency monetary system: never short the sovereign's debt in a recessionary environment (unless the cb is poised to raise rates).
ReplyDeleteScott
Doesn't understand the paradigm. Did you see Tony Crescenzi's bafflement over the "well received" sale of 3-yr notes? (Musta been those sneaky Chinese again ;)
ReplyDeleteI have enjoyed reading Mr Bowtie comments over the years, ever since I first read about him in John Trains book "The New Money Masters" and the subsequent "Market Wizards". Always, been attracted by his supposed bohemian existence and penchant for investment and travel to exotic/dangerous locations. The Indiana Jones of the investment world.
ReplyDeleteHowever, for some reason I had always felt uncomfortable with his macro prognostications. They never seemed to come to fruition, as with many others of his ilk that are quoted in the press. You can read the above books and discover that his Macro view has not changed in over twenty years, the exact same rhetoric is being regurgitated today. My epiphany came slowly after hearing Hunt Taylor interview Warren Mosler.
It occurs to me now that a lot of good value investors, Buffet/Munger included, view workings of macro level policy in the exact same way as policy at the company level. These days, I take notice of what they say about individual company equity/debt but ignore comments about anything else.
I've also wondered about Mr Bowtie's punishing public speaking engagements all over the world. Where do you get the time to analyse all these companies? Why, bother putting yourself in the public eye if you are a great analyst working for yourself?
Regards
Paul
Well said, Paul. Yes, he clearly understands commodities and many other sorts of investments, and Buffet obviously knows how to value companies (at least, as well as anyone can actually do it), but having the appropriate macro paradigm is another matter entirely, as more and more "experts" demonstrate daily.
ReplyDeleteScott