This could be a major top in the stock market!

One arcane little tidbit of data that I follow is the net change in the Treasury's operating cash balance for the fiscal year-to-date. That's a mouthfull, to be sure, but suffice it to say that the number is usually negative, which means that the Treasury is spending money faster than it is taking it in.

However, this number has recently turned positive. That means the Treasury is now collecting money a lot faster than it has been spending it.

There were two other times in the recent past when that happened: January, 2000 and May, 2007. Each time, huge market downturns ensued.