Below are some calculations from data from the Daily Treasury Statements for fiscal YTD as of May 16th (debt ceiling hit) and July 29th (debt ceiling raised).
May 16th
Deposits:
Total Deposits: $7123
Treasury Securities Issued: $5176
Net Deposits: $1947
Withdrawals:
Total Withdrawals: $7299
Treasury Securities Redeemed: $4492
Net Withdrawals: $2807
So net spending was: ($2807 -$1947)= $860
Spending per month = $860/7.5 months = $115B/month for this FY thru May 16th.
July 29th YTD:
Deposits:
Total Deposits: $9134
Treasury Securities Issued: $6608
Net Deposits: $2526
Withdrawals:
Total Withdrawals: $9376
Treasury Securities Redeemed: $5799
Net Withdrawals: $3577
Net spending through July 29th = $3577- $2526 = $1051B
If we isolate the rate of net spending just for the 2.5 months between May 16th and July 29th:
The YTD net spending changed from $860 as of May 16th to $1,051 as of July 29th. This is a total of an additional $191 over those 2.5 months. This is a rate of only $76B per month.
So the fiscal impact of the governments inactivity during the 2.5 months of useless arguing about the so-called "debt" ceiling: Fiscal was reduced from a previous $115B/mo. rate to a $76B/month rate.
This is a substantial hit to this flow measure (a hit of -$39B per month). As the previous rate of savings desires of the non-govt sector was seemingly satisfied at the $115B/mo. rate, this forced fiscal drag of -39B/mo. has to be accounted for somewhere (probably consumption).
Perhaps the stock market has been pricing in this 10 week application of substantial fiscal drag. Hopefully this rate of fiscal flow will quickly revert back to the previous level and we can get back to "muddle through" in a couple of months.
Did The Treasury cause the spike in volatility over the last few days when they resumed selling bonds, spending and funding pensions? Surely the movements in bond, commodity and stock markets have to be related in some way.
ReplyDelete"Hopefully this rate of fiscal flow will quickly revert back to the previous level and we can get back to "muddle through" in a couple of months."
ReplyDeletebut can that even happen? Won't the deficit cuts put a damper on that from even happening? Or are the cuts LESS drastic than the debt ceiling induced cuts? If so, then we might get a pull back to the upside perhaps?
TB,
ReplyDeletemay be too hard to tell, Europe is another wildcard may be making people nervous...
Mario,
I think it may get back to the 115B/mo rate and then it is back to 'muddle through' as the best case for now.
then see how the cuts kick in, if they are "back loaded" then we could be ok for a while...
I'll try to check this flow from time to time over the next few months...
Resp,
ah yes the backloaded cuts. Does anyone know the earlier and latest dates for these cuts to begin?
ReplyDeleteIf I'm not mistaken the deals being passed "guarantee" serious cuts to be made come Jan 2012 but I think others may kick in by 2013...so "respites" may be around but more than likely it will only be the final, heaving upswings before a swift down move. I'm expecting a nice bull move sooner than later (possibly testing our highs) only to be followed by a mother *&*&& bear move. We shall see. I don't care if I'm wrong (in fact I hope I am!!!) and I have nothing on the line with that other my own intellectual interests.
to a laymen as myself, what does all this double talk mean?
ReplyDeleteI want to know should I pile into treasuries or has the big move alreay happened? I am short the indexes for now.
It's nice to see how smart everyone here is, but how do I convert this knowledge to $$$$?
Looks like reduction in spending equal market pull back yes?
Bob, reality is perception.
ReplyDeleteThe prevailing market philosophy is "Buy the f***ing dip. If things look like they are tanking, Bernanke will pile in with QE3."
IMHO, the perception of traders is that the Bernanke put is still in place. :)
Not sayin' I buy into that, but that is the perception I am hearing.
I think the multinationals in the S&Ps can do ok with the govt providing the previous/current $115B/month in NFA to meet the current domestic and foreign savings desires (if that is where the govt effectively keeps it).
ReplyDeleteWe should know how this shakes out at the end of August. Ill check these flows at the end of the month. If it is back to 115B-ish then it should be back to muddle thru.
One thing Ive observed with the Congress over the years is that the Appropriators dont think that they work for the budgeteers. So if the Appropriators just blow off these non-binding budget resolutions (as usual) then fiscal policy can be much more supportive than we would perhaps be led to believe thru all of the media focus on these non-binding budget deliberations.... the proof is in the Daily Treasury Statements, that is the true data to follow wrt true fiscal policy.
@ Bob
ReplyDelete"It's nice to see how smart everyone here is, but how do I convert this knowledge to $$$$?
Looks like reduction in spending equal market pull back yes?"
As I see it for myself at least, I like to keep my money closer to my chest than not so I don't talk too much about it myself. I think it's really up to each individual to decide what to do in the markets, based upon their own accounts, skill sets, psychology, tolerance for risk, etc., etc.
One example I'll share with you is after talking with Warren Mosler over at his blog about how the debt ceiling issue would effect bonds (aka yields would only drop further) plus considering how the news and everyone I talked to all said that yields would go higher plus I also know (based on seasonality charts from www.MRCI.com) that August is THE bullish month for bonds (and also summer is bearish for equities), I chose to go long bonds in the options market (on the TLT etf) last Friday before the weekend deal was made. I exited a day or two early this week but had nothing but upside and was pleased with my exit...especially after Friday's action in bonds. Warren seems to think that the downgrade won't effect bonds and he may be right since the US is still the best out there comparatively speaking (and who the f&*& still believes a word S&P says anyway!!!)...none-the-less I'm glad I'm out for now and will watch to see what happens and go from there, etc., etc.
I also know Warren shorted equities in response to the debt ceiling fiasco as another example for you. But it's all relative and rather personal to each individual and how they trade/invest/etc. Really money does grow on trees in these markets, if you know how to plant and pick them properly. ;) I see MMT as more of a solid way to particularly understand the bond market, currencies, and also to a lesser extent equities and earnings seasons, but really it seems to me that MMT is more just macro-economics and translating it to market calls would probably be for a more long-term picture than a short term one, but again it's all personal and subjective, and there are ALOT of "skews" in the market that MMT is not designed to account for and shouldn't be expected to as a trading methodology imho. In other words, I'd want more than just MMT when placing my trades and investments.
hope that helps and good luck to ya!
"the proof is in the Daily Treasury Statements, that is the true data to follow wrt true fiscal policy."
ReplyDeletetotally agree Matt and these calcs you do are awesome.
May I ask where exactly you are getting these figures at treasury website?
this is really good stuff to be able to do.
Apparently companies in their conference calls are "blaming" their earnings on the debt ceiling. Sounds rigged to me and a total joke!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2B7JCgVVwk&feature=uploademail
Excellent analysis, Matt! Thanks!!
ReplyDelete