The systems on which we rely for our financial transactions, food, fuel and livelihoods are so inter-dependent that they are better regarded as facets of a single global system. Maintaining and operating this global system requires a lot of energy and, because the fixed costs of operating it are high, it is only cost-effective if it is run at near full capacity. As a result, if its throughput falls because less energy is available, it does not contract in a gentle, controllable manner. Instead it is subject to catastrophic collapse.
Read the whole post, article really, at Fleeing Vesuvius, On the cusp of collapse: complexity, energy, and the globalised economy by David Korowicz
(h/t Clonal)
I would have subtitled the article, "Hanging by a thread." Civilization really does hang by just a few threads, and if any one of them is cut or breaks, the whole house of cards comes crashing down. This is systemic risk in the extreme.
Every engineer knows that redundancy is required in fragile system to ensure that if any key components fail, there is an adequate backup. That's why cars have emergency breaks, for example. There is little redundancy built into the modern global economy, whose purpose is to materially provision humanity, and few buffers are available for vital resources.
Catastrope theory is so 80's, however falling off the helix down to the next level is always dramatic.
ReplyDeleteMMT exposes a lot of the blarney about this and shows it does not necessarily need to happen.
The problem is, goog, that TPTB don't get MMT. IF they did, they would not be driving over the cliff now with the ongoing GFC.
ReplyDeleteDiversity is a form of redundancy and resilience. Perhaps the reason why disaster theorists have been consistently wrong.
ReplyDeleteTom,
ReplyDeleteYou might also find this online powerpoint book useful - "Peak Oil and the Fate of Humanity"
Quote:
"Peak Oil and the Fate of Humanity" is a PowerPoint book that deals with the future when oil production will no longer keep up with demand.
The author explains the importance of oil in our industrial society, what substitutes are possible and what difficulties they imply.
He then gives an example of a past society on Easter Island, which benefited from a temporary abundance and expanded its population beyond what the environment could sustain. He draws parallels with today's technological society.
He goes further to explain how growth feeds upon growth and he provides insights about carrying capacity and the necessity of living within natural limits imposed by Nature.
Finally, he proposes that we save our technological civilization from extinction by mobilizing Canadians to take appropriate measures at the personal level, at the neighborhood level, at the municipal level and the national level.
You can download one chapter at a time. Allow a minimum of an hour to view the 13 chapters.