Although I'm still looking at GDP and employment for 2012, I think the unemployment rate will be mostly unchanged in 2012.
A couple of predictions.
• The participation rate will rise slightly in 2012 and probably end the year in the 64.0% to 64.5% range.
• The unemployment rate will still be in the 8% to 9% range in December 2012.
Read it at Calculated Risk
Question #6 for 2012: Unemployment Rate
by Calculated Risk
On the subject of unemployment, how do you feel about the Employer of Last Resort part of MMT? How do you think it would work and what are the risks?
ReplyDeleteJohn T
I wonder what they are inhaling! If I look at the FRED database on Labor participation rates, this is what I see
ReplyDeleteI cannot see, given the policies currently being followed, how you will shift either participation rate into the positive area.
Clonal
ReplyDeleteI believe Warren made the point that the Participation Rate exhibits pro-cyclical characteristics in a comment the other day....
Resp,
John Carney just tweeted:
ReplyDeleteIM from my mom: "TLDR - but will later - re. jobs guarantee"
Dan,
ReplyDeleteI dont get that? Can you xlate the "twitterese"?
Resp,
I'm not great with Twitterese either Matt. But I googled TLDR, and apparently it means "too long; didn't read." Carney's tweet didn't say what it was his mom didn't read.
ReplyDeleteMaybe he is working on a blog post wrt the JG...
ReplyDeleteMaybe his mom is his proof reader, hey that's cheating John! ;)
Resp,
Matt,
ReplyDeleteDid you see the labor force participation rates that I linked to? Given that picture, I don't see how the combined labor force participation rates will increase.
Clonal agree...
ReplyDeleteits like as the economy improves, more people seek jobs..
Resp,