This was a good jobs report and it should help Obama.
Unemp rate 7.8%
Labor force participation rate went up: 63.6%
Nonfarm payrolls +114k, last month revised up HUGE to 142k
Hourly earnings up strong 0.3%
Household survey added 873,000 jobs. Largest increase since 1983!!!
Weekly hours up
Now it appears we have made back all the private sector jobs lost since Obama took office (Chart 1.)
And if it were not for the decline in government jobs, which were cut massively under Obama, then we'd be looking at something like 6 million jobs created since the stimulus really kicked in. A bigger stimulus would have brought the unemployment rate down that much futher, but Obama was too timid to push for it. He still doesn't argue strongly enough to show people how well the stimulus worked.
By the way...look at the spike in government jobs that were due to the hiring of temporary Census workers in Chart 2. Show this to someone next time they tell you government can't create jobs!
Chart 1.
The spike in temporary census workers doesn't necessarily support the argument against the statement that "government doesn't create jobs." They were temporary jobs paid for by the government (either deficit spending or tax dollars (and yes I know, MMT rationale tax dollars are not revenue for spending). This factoid probably supports the idea that government can't produce jobs more than contradicts it.
ReplyDeleteThose census workers have no productive purpose to the private sector. It's not like once the economy gets moving again a private company will hire those census workers away and privatize the census taking business.
The government could hire 1 million folks to sit on their front porch and count clouds for 3 months. That doesn't make that a job of any real or productive value or the government a job creator.
Teachers, police, middle management bureaucrats, construction contractors and engineers are real jobs... if by no other measure than the private sector needs all these folks as well and is willing to pay them for them.
... to further that... These charts could be construed to suggest that for every 1 job the government shed 5 jobs were created by the private sector.
ReplyDeleteI don't believe there's any valid causation in that argument, but traditional conservative thought would make that correlation and make it hard to convince anyone in this argument.
"Those census workers have no productive purpose to the private sector"
ReplyDeleteYeah up to date demographic data is not useful at all to the private sector.
Yes, it's a positive report, but the new jobs were mostly part time, and the civilian-population ratio has barely budged since the crash.
ReplyDeletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO
Households have deleveraged enough that they may decide to start shopping again despite the lack of stimulus.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FODSP
But I'm not breaking out the champagne just yet.
And those Census workers could have also been cops, teachers, firemen, nurses, construction workers, etc.
ReplyDelete"Those census workers have no productive purpose to the private sector."
ReplyDeleteMost jobs have no productive purpose to the private sector.
They are liitle more than flow generators.
!.5% of the workforce produces enough food for every American and then some. That's production that free's us up to do useless stuff, like count beans.
@Adam2 - The primary purpose of the census is for voting district apportionment. Private companies are capable of collecting their own demographic data (Google, Facebook, any retailer you've ever purchased from) to serve their own needs. Why should the government pay for data collection for private use?
ReplyDeleteThe primary purpose of the census is for voting district apportionment. Private companies are capable of collecting their own demographic data (Google, Facebook, any retailer you've ever purchased from) to serve their own needs. Why should the government pay for data collection for private use?
ReplyDeleteGovts of developed economies are expected to collect, process, monitor for quality, and report economic and demographic data for research, public, and private, both for profit and nonprofit, as well as international use.
It's a significant expenditure and deemed worth it in terms of total payback.
The US has cut back to some degree on its reporting and there has been a lot of criticism over it.
The economy is recovering on may measures, however, the financial problems that resulted in the crisis are unresolved and the push for fiscal austerity is undermining the recovery. The trajectory should be positive through the election, helping the president, but the immediate future thereafter looks increasingly precarious for moronic reasons we are all too familiar with.
ReplyDeleteMike Papantonio talks about how the Democratic Party needs to stop wasting their time attempting to sway the conservative red state south, and focus their energy in areas where they can actually make a difference.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGfK9ZQg1MA&feature=g-all-u
Census worker jobs are jobs. Gawd.
ReplyDeleteAre those charts based on household data or establishment data?