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Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Obama crashing on Intrade now

Obama's nosedive on Intrade is accelerating. There's only about a 10 point difference separating him and Romney with less than two weeks to go. And his lead in the electoral vote count has pretty much evaporated.

I know a lot of you will say, "yeah, but he's still in the lead," however, it could be the trend that counts and his trend is definitely down, while Romney's is surging upward.

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12 comments:

  1. Tom HickeyOctober 24, 2012 at 10:49 AM

    Seven day trend at Predictwise. Form 70-30 to 60-40.

    Ohio 61.4 % - 38.6 % for Obama.

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  2. paul meliOctober 24, 2012 at 10:54 AM

    Romney has a tough road ahead in Ohio…running out of time:

    http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Graphs/ohio.html

    In Florida, nearly a million people have already voted.

    Orlando, a liberal stronghold (there are only 6 liberal-leaning counties in Florida) has had many more Democrats than Republicans voting. Surrounding counties just the opposite.

    My bet would be Florida goes to Rmoney.

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  3. Tom HickeyOctober 24, 2012 at 10:54 AM

    Michigan 91.2 % - 8.8 % and Massachusetts 99.6 % - 0.4 % for Obama on Predictwise. These are Mitt's home states.

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  4. Tom HickeyOctober 24, 2012 at 11:05 AM

    Interesting that the blue states are the "producers," i.e., contribute most to US GDP ), and the red states are the "moochers, Texas excepted.

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  5. Matt FrankoOctober 24, 2012 at 11:13 AM

    " Texas excepted." : resource extraction.. rsp,

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  6. Matt FrankoOctober 24, 2012 at 11:14 AM

    Tom, also I would point out that FIRE is in the blue states... rsp,

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  7. paul meliOctober 24, 2012 at 11:17 AM

    "Interesting that the blue states are the "producers," i.e., contribute most to US GDP )"

    Yeah, California ranks 7th among highest GDP in the world, all the others being countries.

    The crazies want it to go bankrupt. Wonder what that would do to unemployment and as a consequence, GDP?

    Where will all of the red states get their funding?

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  8. paul meliOctober 24, 2012 at 11:19 AM

    "Tom, also I would point out that FIRE is in the blue states..."

    FIRE is best positioned where the people/political power is concentrated.

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  9. mike normanOctober 24, 2012 at 11:21 AM

    Tom:

    "Interesting that the blue states are the 'producers,'..."

    I wrote a lot about this around the time of the auto bailout. Back then, lawmakers like Corker (R-TN) and Vitter (R-MS) were complaining that the residents of their states were being called upon to "bail out" people in Detroit and it wasn't fair.

    So then I looked up how much in transfer payments each state receives from the Federal Gov't and sure enough, Tennessee and Mississippi both receive more than they pay to the Federal Gov't, whereas Michigan gets less than what it pays in.

    So in other words, those "lazy, overpaid" workers in Detroit were paying taxes to support the residents of TN and MS, not vice-versa.

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  10. widmerpoolOctober 24, 2012 at 2:43 PM

    I think they are manipulating Intrade which wouldn't be hard.

    Betfair is Obama 63%
    Intrade is Obama 58%

    That makes no sense.

    And absolutely nothing happened the past two days that would cause Obama to drop 6 % pts.

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  11. AnonymousOctober 24, 2012 at 2:49 PM

    Not exactly a nosedive.

    Here are a couple places to watch all three markets and the book odds.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

    http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual

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  12. Tom HickeyOctober 24, 2012 at 2:57 PM

    That why Predictwise was constructed.

    I don't see it as strange that the gap has been closing. The prediction markets are odds betting markets. Romney was undervalued at 30% and the spread stil is good at 40% considering the tight polls. Remember that the people in the prediction markets are there to make money based on shifting probabilities.

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