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Monday, November 5, 2012

Prediction markets: one last look


Tomorrow is the election. Here are the latest graphs showing probabilities from Intrade and Iowa Electronic Markets. Obama is still strongly in the lead.

Intrade: Obama 67% Romney 33%    


   













Iowa Electronic Markets: Obama 75% Romney 25%



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8 comments:

  1. Tom HickeyNovember 5, 2012 at 5:04 PM

    Looks like the betting now is over how many electoral votes. Jim Cramer is in with 440 Obama. But Nate rates the probability of that as minuscule. An upside bet seems to be in the low 300 range.

    ReplyDelete
  2. mike normanNovember 5, 2012 at 5:11 PM

    440?? Wow!!

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  3. AnonymousNovember 5, 2012 at 5:40 PM

    440 ha..

    Looks like everything is locked up except for Virginia and Colorado according to predictwise.

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  4. paul meliNovember 5, 2012 at 5:41 PM

    "440?? Wow!!"

    This is one of those instances where Cramer really wants to be wrong.

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  5. CrakeNovember 5, 2012 at 6:31 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  6. CrakeNovember 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

    I have been monitoring this site a few times a day for the last few weeks - it compiles about a dozen books:

    Example


    A few weeks ago, the Obama payout was ~1/2.5 then most sites hit 1/3, then last week 1/4 and now most are 1/4.5 to 1/5.

    And Romney is around 3 on most books and most are higher than 3 at 10/3.

    Does this mean people are placing bets on President Obama with the chance to only when 20% - i.e. a $1000 bet would just pay $1200?

    And a Romney bet would pay 300%+ so a $1000 bet would pay $4000+?

    Seems if people really think it will be a toss-up election, which is the conventional wisdom, those book pay-outs would not exist.

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  7. googleheimNovember 5, 2012 at 11:29 PM

    I do believe in global cooling as it is better explained by experience ( krakatoa ) than global warming.

    But the way Sandy barreled into NJ and NY leaves me wondering why anyone who can believe in one cannot believe in the other.

    Therefore, which candidate is going to support infrastructure and even just "just in case" planning ?

    Is Mitt for Obamacare even though it is really Mitt from MassCare ?

    ??

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  8. Malmo's GhostNovember 6, 2012 at 2:27 PM

    One thing is for certain: a neoliberal is going to win.

    ReplyDelete