Any scenario which leads to Social Security or Medicare cuts would be bad for seniors. It would also be bad for any politician who supported it.
A recent poll by Lake Research shows that 82 percent of all Americans oppose cuts to Social Security, including 83 percent of Democrats, 78 percent of independents, 82 percent of Republicans -- and, in one of the most startling findings of all, fully three-fourths of all self-described Tea Party members (74 percent). (Social Security Works has a video and a petition on this subject.)
Democrats hold the advantage on this issue right now, which means it's theirs to lose. There's a historical precedent: in 2010, after two years of presidential rhetoric about trimming entitlements, Democrats experienced a 20-point plunge on the question "which party do you most trust to handle Social Security?" Republicans responded with a thoroughly predictable, utterly insincere -- and very effective -- "Seniors' Bill Of Rights."
2010 is the year Democrats lost control of the House.
AlterNet
What Are Democrats in the Senate Smoking? Caving into Right-Wingers to Cut Medicare Would Be Political Disaster
RJ Eskow, Curbing Wall St. Project
More push back against the trial balloon Sen. Durbin sent up.
For that reason I suspect any Grand Bargain is most likely to happen during a lame duck session, either 2014 or 2016.
ReplyDeleteRemember, as long as a politician takes care of the rich, the rich will take care of him when he leaves office. He'll either get a well paid "job" at think tank or a board of directors, or else he'll go to work as a lobbyist. Ex-presidents will get book deals and lucrative speaking engagements. THEY MAKE MORE MONEY, not less, after they leave office.
Also, the politicians have us by the balls, so to speak, because there is no other viable candidate to vote for. If a Democrat cuts SS/Medicare, what are you going to do, vote Republican?
Look at what has happened in Southern Europe. The politicians cut social programs. It is unpopular and that neoliberal party gets voted out and the other neoliberal party gets voted in. No matter who they vote for, they get more neoliberal austerity, so nothing ever changes.