Adair Turner — "In Praise of Capital Market Fragmentation"

Financial liberalization was lauded because it enabled capital to flow to where it would be used most productively, increasing national and global growth.

But empirical support for the benefits of capital-account liberalization is weak. The most successful development stories in economic history – Japan and South Korea – featured significant domestic financial repression and capital controls, which accompanied several decades of rapid growth.

Likewise, most cross-country studies have found no evidence that capital-account liberalization is good for growth. As the economist Jagdish Bhagwati pointed out 16 years ago in his article “The Capital Myth,” there are fundamental differences between trade in widgets and trade in dollars. The case for liberalizing trade in goods and services is strong; the case for complete capital-account liberalization is not.

One reason is that many modern financial flows do not play the useful role in capital allocation that economic theory assumes....

And yet, despite the growing evidence to the contrary, the assumption that all capital flows are beneficial has proved remarkably resilient. That reflects the power not only of vested interests but also of established ideas. Empirical falsification of a prevailing orthodoxy is disturbing. Even economists who find no evidence that capital-account liberalization boosts growth often feel obliged to stress that “further analysis” might at last reveal the benefits that free-market theory suggests must exist.

It is time to stop looking for these non-existent benefits, and to distinguish among different categories of capital flows. Some are valuable, but some are potentially harmful....

In the past, policymakers have been at pains to stress that no such fragmentation will be allowed. But we need to be blunt: Free flows of short-term debt can result in capital misallocation and harmful instability. When it comes to global capital markets, fragmentation can be a good thing.

Social Europe Journal
"In Praise of Capital Market Fragmentation"

Adair Turner



Adair Turner