An economics, investment, trading and policy blog with a focus on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). We seek the truth, avoid the mainstream and are virulently anti-neoliberalism.
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Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Mark Buchanan — A picture makes it clear: the recession IS over
But — Not that many people will know it for quite some time.
This post and the post it links to have some highly dubious conclusions…a perfect example of basing one's observations on ticks rather than trends.
If a graph of private debt ∆(TCMDO-FYGFDPUN) vs GDP is looked at over a longer time frame (say since 1970) on a log scale (which shows rates of growth as well as absolute), it is clear that private debt expansion has not reached trend nor is it even close.
This post and the post it links to have some highly dubious conclusions…a perfect example of basing one's observations on ticks rather than trends.
ReplyDeleteIf a graph of private debt ∆(TCMDO-FYGFDPUN) vs GDP is looked at over a longer time frame (say since 1970) on a log scale (which shows rates of growth as well as absolute), it is clear that private debt expansion has not reached trend nor is it even close.
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/33741/FGEXPND%20to%20GDPI%20log.png
There is headroom to get back or close to trend…there is none that I can see that could get a significant expansion.
We need to see much more data (which hasn't occurred yet) before we make these kinds of claims.