Interactive chart below that paints a less than stellar YoY fiscal picture for the month of March.
Over the course of the month, YoY Treasury spending fell behind by about $36B to bring the full FYoY figure back to negative $36B as the policy of austerity is starting to manifest in the Treasury spending data.
During the month we witnessed a corresponding end to February's equity rally and the dollar index bottomed.
YoY comparisons for 1Q are probably going to be very difficult for most sectors to exhibit meaningful top-line gains.
This is not "good news" for the economy and we project this intermediate term trend of YoY "breakeven" to continue.
The otherside of the coin, demand leakages, have been getting smaller too. Net Exports have been rising while Private savings have been flat to falling.
ReplyDeleteAt the same time, changes in inventories have been positive and private credit growth has likely turned positive in all areas including mortgages this quarter. Certainly won't make for a roaring economy but it isn't as bad as it looks from looking at the smaller fiscal deficit alone.
good points Ryan as Warren terms it more "muddle through..." rsp,
ReplyDeleteMatt, do you think some of this has to do with the expiration of several tax credits in 2013? I saw yesterday that Sen. Wyden is working to try to restore some of them, so if this happens, it might help us "catch up" some, but probably not until later in the year.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/01/usa-tax-extenders-idUSL1N0MT1OI20140401
Justin could be... although YoY Tax Refunds are running about 8b ahead of last year without those credits this year (+EITC probably...)
ReplyDeleteSeems like most of the YoY hits have been in Defense Vendors (GWOT winding down) and Education (less student loans being originated..)...
For end of first half, we are at about 2.13T so double that and we are looking at about 4.26T for the year....
This leading flow is simply not enough to employ 135M to 140M people while satisfying global USD savings desires...
... probably only enough to employ 125M people max or thereabouts so here we are...
Until we can eradicate the libertarians out of our current majesterial positions on both sides, seems like we are stuck with this scenario as they see "govt is the problem" and "the govt gets the money from the individual people", "we're out of money!", etc... libertarianism is the main problem we face...
the Randian Ryan libertarian budget this week is to me more of the same here, outyear cuts, etc... at least on surface... so right now the rational view continues to be the "muddle thru" scenario...
rsp,
Matt do you get the state and local aggregate numbers too? Rockinst.org doesn't have anything up yet but I'm sort of expecting stronger hiring and double digit spending increases after solid levels of tax collections last year.
ReplyDelete