If Keynes’ fallacy of aggregation shows us nothing else, it should at least show us that when it comes to applied probability theory (i.e. econometrics) it is not so much the tools that are important as it is the person doing the work. And if the tools begin to become a fetish in and of themselves I see no good reason not to get rid of them to a very large extent.Fixing the Economists
Keynes and the “Fallacy of Aggregation” in Probability TheoryPhilip Pilkington
problems arising from the principle of indiffrence are one of the factors that pushed people away from Keynes's "logical" theory of probability and toward subjectivistic of Bayesian theories.
ReplyDeletehttp://plato.stanford.edu/entries/probability-interpret/