As it turns out, investor buying does have a massive impact on local real estate. Big money is slowly starting to pull away from the real estate market. We are seeing this in dramatic fashion in Arizona and Nevada. It is also happening here in the sunny Golden State. What is interesting in the last housing correction is that prices and sales fell on the outskirts first and slowly made their way inward. The marginal buyer is pushed out first before making its way up the economic food chain. We are seeing similar action happening in places like the Inland Empire and Central Valley where inventory is certainly up and prices are hitting plateaus. The momentum from 2013 is now running on fumes. We also have certain cities being dominated by investors and in many cases money is coming directly from China. Hot money is finding a home in the oddest of places. Yet one thing is certain and that is SoCal real estate is now entering into an inflection point. As this turn unfolds we are going to find out what areas are truly prime and what other areas are all hat with no cattle.
Dr. Housing Bubble
The inflection point has arrived in Southern California real estate: Investors make up smallest percentage of buyers in three years. Inventory continues to grow.
See also, The drought of young California home buyers: Unaffordable housing reigns supreme as first time home buyers squeezed out of market. Of 7,000,000 completed foreclosures since 2005, 1 million occurred in California
It is safe to say that the momentum of 2013 has fizzled out in the housing market. Sales are down and prices are reaching a plateau. Part of this has come from the slowdown of investors purchasing homes in the state. An interesting end of the year study by the California Association of Realtors (CAR) found that 82 percent of investors that bought in 2013 had the intention of turning the home into a rental. The other 18 percent were giving the old flipper lottery a try. This helps to explain why inventory continues to remain lowbecause in more typical markets, a person selling the home would usually also buy another home in the ragtime favorite trend of property laddering your way into a bigger home. In other words, two transactions with one move. Today, you have many investors buying foreclosures from banks with a one and done deal (buy the home from bank and then put it on the market for rent). Yet from contacts in the housing industry, the lack of first time home buyers is dramatic. In 2013 the argument was that pent up demand for young buyers was going to give housing another dramatic run higher. In reality, 2013 gave us a massive run from investors and with them slowly pulling back, the market is already entering into a tipping point. Flippers buy for appreciation so what happens when prices stagnant or turn lower which is typical in these boom and bust cycles? In reality, first time buyers are absent because they can’t afford to buy in California.
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