The latest jobs report showed the unemployment rate was at its lowest level in six years, 5.8 percent.
But Americans aren't convinced that things are nearly that good. In a recent Ipsos-MORI poll, 1,001 Americans were asked, "Out of every 100 people of working age, how many do you think are unemployed and looking for work?" Their average response was 32. That's almost 26 percentage points higher than the 6.1-percent jobless rate in August, when the poll was conducted.…
To be fair, it's possible that question wording matters here...though "out of work and looking for work" is the most broadly used definition of unemployment, people may be also considering their discouraged-worker friends who have given up the search. Still, even when you include discouraged and other marginally attached workers, even the broadest definition of unemployment in August was only 12 percent.VOX
Americans think the unemployment rate is 32 percent
Danielle Kurtzleben
Perhaps they are confused by the labour participation rate?
ReplyDeleteThe labor force participation rate is 62.7%, the lowest level since 1978. That gives a non-participation rate of 37.3% I'm guessing the highly subjective rider "looking for work" is a phrase ordinary people interpret far less strictly than econometricians do. Even the stay-at home mom is usually vaguely looking for something on the side, and the kid on his parents' couch in our low-opportunity world might be perpetually "looking", even if he hasn't sent out a resume or contacted people.
ReplyDeleteThe unemployment rate is a nothing statistic, used to justify roughly whatever level of employment our capitalist economy manages to provide. The longer any particular total employment level is maintained, the more likely it is those unwanted by capital and excluded from the labor force will get the message and stop looking.
This years policy economists bandies about with the latest Fad, structural unemployment, apparently the kind that can't be fixed.
ReplyDeleteWe probably should include everyone over 18 that earns minimum wage as being unemployed by my definition, as those jobs are nothing more than a buffer stock of underemployed.
And then we have the recent college graduate problem with rates of unemployment at 8% compared to 3% for all grads, and 16% underemployed. If degreed peacocks with their loud screams and bright feathers can't find mates how will the plain colored undegreed song birds find mates?
It's also the type of employment being created. Most is at a level way below prior to the crisis. So some people may technically have "jobs" and are counted as employed but they still want a real job in terms of building a career.
ReplyDelete