Paul Hockenos — Germany's Polite Populists — The Rapid Rise of Europe's Newest Right-Wing Party

For years, Germany has enjoyed the noble distinction of being the only major European country without a significant right-wing, anti-euro party. But far from celebrating their country’s sudden status as the continent’s exemplary democracy, many German observers suffered from a certain degree of angst. It was only a matter of time, they believed, before a talented populist—someone charismatic, highly educated, and professionally accomplished—found a formula that appealed to the German public. After all, surveys have consistently shown that Germans are just as likely to harbor EU-antagonistic, foreigner-unfriendly, and Islamophobic sentiments as their counterparts in the Netherlands, Scandinavia, and elsewhere in Europe, where right-wing parties regularly capture up to a quarter of the vote—and even join coalition governments. 

Those premonitions have now been fulfilled. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) burst onto Germany’s political stage this year by winning ten percent of the vote or slightly more in three regional elections in eastern Germany and seven percent in the EU parliament election this spring. Founded in 2013, the AfD now regularly polls over ten percent in country-wide surveys, even though it has yet to breach the Bundestag. (In last year’s national election, it barely missed clearing the five-percent hurdle to enter parliament.) It’s clear that the phenomenon of the AfD isn’t a flash-in-the-pan. It may never govern directly, but is sure to have a profound impact on German politics.…

…Until the AfD came along, many dozens of pretenders had tried to inhabit this territory in postwar Germany’s political landscape, but they all failed, ultimately falling either into the lap of the big-tent Christian Democrats or off the right edge into the swamp of the hardcore xenophobes and neo-Nazis. 

The AfD, by contrast, has decorated its frontline with one-time members of the German political establishment who say old-fashioned fiscal conservatism is their passion.…

The AfD’s central argument is that Germany has been a clear victim of the euro crisis, compelled against its will—and all common sense—to continually bail out debt-strapped southern Europeans. The architects of the euro-crisis fixes duped the German public, making it pay for the sins of the free-spending southern Europeans. The only responsible policy for maintaining Germany’s long-term competitiveness on the global market is to push for the dismantling of the eurozone and, eventually perhaps, the reinstatement of the deutschmark. AfD officials admit that for southern Europeans, the common currency has been even more catastrophic—which is why they argue that those countries should be the first to abandon the euro (if not by their own volition, then eventually by Brussels’ decree). The remaining northern Europeans could then lay the groundwork for gradually restoring their own national currencies.…

But Germany-first fiscal policies alone can’t account for the party’s success. Indeed, as a single-issue party, the AfD initially got off to a slow start. It wasn’t until the group broadened its scope and adopted an anti-immigrant, law-and-order, and Islamophobic agenda that it began to garner support.…

The composition of the AfD’s voters confirms what polls have shown for years: Although few Germans openly identify as right wing, many people across the political spectrum harbor illiberal political beliefs.…

Foreign Affairs — a publication of the Council on Foreign Relations
Germany's Polite Populists — The Rapid Rise of Europe's Newest Right-Wing Party

Paul Hockenos