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Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard — Former BIS chief economist warns that QE in Europe is doomed to failure and may draw the region into deeper difficulties

Former BIS chief economist warns that QE in Europe is doomed to failure and may draw the region into deeper difficulties…
Mr White said QE is a disguised form of competitive devaluation. "The Japanese are now doing it as well but nobody can complain because the US started it," he said.
"There is a significant risk that this is going to end badly because the Bank of Japan is funding 40pc of all government spending. This could end in high inflation, perhaps even hyperinflation.…
The painful irony is that central banks may have brought about exactly what they most feared by trying to keep growth buoyant at all costs, he argues, and not allowing productivity gains to drive down prices gently as occurred in episodes of the 19th century. "They have created so much debt that they may have turned a good deflation into a bad deflation after all."
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9 comments:

  1. AnonymousJanuary 20, 2015 at 11:26 PM

    Another hyperinflation predictor. I guess if they just keep predicting it for 100 years running, it will have to come true eventually.

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  2. Vincent CateJanuary 21, 2015 at 6:31 AM

    The anti-hyperinlation people have plenty of ridicule on their side, but there is plenty of theory on the side of the hyperinflationist. Japan has started the bond panic that brings on hyperinlation. They don't have 100 years left.

    http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2014/08/positive-feedback-theory-of.html

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  3. mike normanJanuary 21, 2015 at 6:44 AM

    Plenty of "theory" on their side? Really? Perhaps in totally incongruous "examples." That's about it.

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  4. Matt FrankoJanuary 21, 2015 at 8:22 AM

    Dan right but there at the end he is talking about DEflation...

    So (to them) they think like "we're going to have so much inflation that it becomes deflation!"

    Whaaaaaaaaatttttt???????

    ReplyDelete
  5. Tom HickeyJanuary 21, 2015 at 12:36 PM

    Or maybe so much deflation it becomes inflation?

    Where's you model, Mr. White? What are your assumptions? What is the evidence supporting the model's assumptions and conclusions.

    Oh right, Zimbabwe.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Vincent CateJanuary 21, 2015 at 2:40 PM

    Michael, you need to follow the link at the end of the positive feedback examples to get to the hyperinflation theory. Here it is:

    http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2013/09/hyperinflation-explained-in-many.html

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  7. Vincent CateJanuary 21, 2015 at 2:42 PM

    I don't see a Mr White, so maybe you are talking to me. In the above link there are many logical models for how hyperinflation works. Here is a model and simulation with all the equations spelled out:

    http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2013/03/simulating-hyperinflation.html

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  8. Tom HickeyJanuary 21, 2015 at 4:40 PM

    Vincent, William White is the former BIS chief referred to in the Telegraph article.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Vincent CateJanuary 21, 2015 at 5:26 PM

    Oh. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete