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Sunday, February 1, 2015
James K. Galbraith — "The Greek Hope"
But is anyone that counts listening?
Maybe the Greek hope lies in a aligning with Russia and China.
Syriza apparently is already softening stance. Now that they're in power it looks like they are experiencing cold feet syndrome like we see with our politicians here in America. Is staying in the euro more important that removing the shackles of debt peonage? Maybe it is to them?
More lucrative. One treatment for cold feet syndrome is for an active electorate to hold politicians feet to the fire. Or to indicate their support for a far-right candidate, as is the case in France.
Syriza was not elected to leave the euro and quit the EMU. Most Greeks still want to "save the system." Syriza is not homogenous and it rules through a coalition that includes a party of the right. At this point, they either have to negotiate a deal or arrange for the EZ to throw them out. There is no political will in the country as a whole to quit the currency zone at present.
As Neil says, Yanis is an expert at gaming. Now we'll see if he can tie that knowledge to hardnose negotiating skill.
It will be a tough slog. TPTB are ruthless thugs that will do anything it takes to hang on to wealth and power and expand it. Worse than negotiating with Mafia dons. And the public are pretty easily intimidated unless they are starving already.
Mike Norman, I think, is correct, however. Half measures, even debt forgiveness cannot rescue Greece from the Troika's heavy hand. I also think YF knows and states just that fact too. And, as you say, Grecians do not want to exit the euro, nor was Syriza elected to do so. But the conundrum remains-stay in the euro and be doomed. Leave the euro and be thrown out of power and thus be doomed. The only other option, which is no slam dunk politically, is get thrown out of the euro. That's what I think YF is augering for(just not explicitly) IMO.
At this point, I think the outcome is impossible to foresee.
For example, Obama is not saying that what Greece needs is growth rather than austerity, clearly sending a message publicly to Angela Merkel et al.
Syriza just went along with extending sanctions on Russia even though there was an offer of rapprochement from Russia. What was the price of this?
Lots going on not only economically but also geopolitically and geostrategically as the old order is becoming shaky.
Greece is a pawn in that game as well as a profit center for the ruling elite. If the US finds it in its global interest to stiff the European ruling elite, it will, and they will have to eat it.
At this level, the game becomes intensely Machiavellian and it is conducted largely behind the scenes. Lots of balls in the air now, and the ground is shifting fast.
There are other options for kicking the can down the road, as Bill Mitchell has pointed out. But in the end, the EZ has either to move forward toward political union and a federated state like the US, or it will have to abandon the euro.
Otherwise, the only way they can be competitive with the ROW is permanent austerity, and that doesn't seem viable politically without abandoning even a façade of democracy.
There are many reasons it make it extremely difficult for the EU/EZ to form a federal state, so the possibility of that being successful seems rather remote. The popular will doesn't seem to be there.
Absent political union, either the existing arrangements are loosened significantly to allow for more flexibility, or else the euro is likely to go down.
The alternative is, of course, political revolt, and who knows where that would lead — likely to more right-wing nationalistic governments in some cases. The other option is war, which is always a last resort of ruling elites to take attention off other matters.
So this could go in many different directions depending on circumstances.
It's best to negotiate from a position of strength. That leaves the other party no choice but to negotiate out of fear.
ReplyDeleteSyriza apparently is already softening stance. Now that they're in power it looks like they are experiencing cold feet syndrome like we see with our politicians here in America. Is staying in the euro more important that removing the shackles of debt peonage? Maybe it is to them?
ReplyDeleteMore lucrative.
ReplyDeleteOne treatment for cold feet syndrome is for an active electorate to hold politicians feet to the fire. Or to indicate their support for a far-right candidate, as is the case in France.
Syriza was not elected to leave the euro and quit the EMU. Most Greeks still want to "save the system." Syriza is not homogenous and it rules through a coalition that includes a party of the right. At this point, they either have to negotiate a deal or arrange for the EZ to throw them out. There is no political will in the country as a whole to quit the currency zone at present.
ReplyDeleteAs Neil says, Yanis is an expert at gaming. Now we'll see if he can tie that knowledge to hardnose negotiating skill.
It will be a tough slog. TPTB are ruthless thugs that will do anything it takes to hang on to wealth and power and expand it. Worse than negotiating with Mafia dons. And the public are pretty easily intimidated unless they are starving already.
Tom,
ReplyDeleteMike Norman, I think, is correct, however. Half measures, even debt forgiveness cannot rescue Greece from the Troika's heavy hand. I also think YF knows and states just that fact too. And, as you say, Grecians do not want to exit the euro, nor was Syriza elected to do so. But the conundrum remains-stay in the euro and be doomed. Leave the euro and be thrown out of power and thus be doomed. The only other option, which is no slam dunk politically, is get thrown out of the euro. That's what I think YF is augering for(just not explicitly) IMO.
At this point, I think the outcome is impossible to foresee.
ReplyDeleteFor example, Obama is not saying that what Greece needs is growth rather than austerity, clearly sending a message publicly to Angela Merkel et al.
Syriza just went along with extending sanctions on Russia even though there was an offer of rapprochement from Russia. What was the price of this?
Lots going on not only economically but also geopolitically and geostrategically as the old order is becoming shaky.
Greece is a pawn in that game as well as a profit center for the ruling elite. If the US finds it in its global interest to stiff the European ruling elite, it will, and they will have to eat it.
At this level, the game becomes intensely Machiavellian and it is conducted largely behind the scenes. Lots of balls in the air now, and the ground is shifting fast.
Tom,
ReplyDeleteDon't you think when all is said and done, Greece simply has to abandon the euro or else plan on having an endless depression?
There are other options for kicking the can down the road, as Bill Mitchell has pointed out. But in the end, the EZ has either to move forward toward political union and a federated state like the US, or it will have to abandon the euro.
ReplyDeleteOtherwise, the only way they can be competitive with the ROW is permanent austerity, and that doesn't seem viable politically without abandoning even a façade of democracy.
There are many reasons it make it extremely difficult for the EU/EZ to form a federal state, so the possibility of that being successful seems rather remote. The popular will doesn't seem to be there.
Absent political union, either the existing arrangements are loosened significantly to allow for more flexibility, or else the euro is likely to go down.
The alternative is, of course, political revolt, and who knows where that would lead — likely to more right-wing nationalistic governments in some cases. The other option is war, which is always a last resort of ruling elites to take attention off other matters.
So this could go in many different directions depending on circumstances.