J.Hawk’s Comment: It does seem likely that Putin will go into retirement in the next few years—at any rate, it’s hard to imagine him as president at the age of 70. Besides, his place in history books is secure, and it’s unlikely that Russian government policies would change much after his departure. He is not the “tyrannical ruler” of Western propaganda but, quite simply, the chief executive of the Russian state. That’s what he was picked to do, and that’s what he did well.
The only question is of succession. It will almost certainly be a member of the “nobility of the sword”, or Russia’s national security apparatus. The business side of the government, the “nobility of the cloth”, has not performed as well, and its representatives (most notably—Medvedev) can’t hold a candle to the popularity of the “chekists.”
So, who’s Russia’s next president? My educated guess is that it will come down to a choice between Sergey Ivanov and Sergey Shoygu. They combine modesty, competence, and the ability to pursue the balanced internal and foreign policy that characterized Russia during Putin’s tenure as President and/or Prime Minister.
Fort Russ
"Someone else could be Russia's president in 2018"--Putin
Translated by J. Hawk
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