After four years of bloody civil war in Syria, severely affected by external interference, it appears that the regime in Damascus has begun to crack, despite the fact that the Syrian army has scored one victory after another on the field of battle. Yet there’s no visible prospect of a peaceful settlement of the conflict. Moreover, there are signs of the actual collapse of the Syrian state, which can quickly be torn into a number of semi-independent entities. Should this happen the massacre of the Syrian people will only intensify. The grip of the government of Bashar al-Assad is weakening as Damascus becomes increasingly dependent on its allies from abroad, especially volunteers from Iran and Iraq. Traditionally the most effective support Syria has is from the Lebanese Shia organization Hezbollah....New Eastern Outlook
Syrian Regime is Going Down in Flames
Petr Lvov
As always, it's hard to figure out what is going on in the Middle East. 100% reliable sources are non-existent.
ReplyDeleteBut I suspect that Assad's obituary is a bit premature. Russia, Hezbollah, and Iran are on his side. If necessary, they'll ramp up assistance.
On the other hand, the Balkanization of Syria may be difficult to avoid in regions where Assad lacks local support.
Another danger would be an ISIS 9/11 (reported at Moon of Alabama today). If ISIS pulls off a 9/11, then you know the American hawks will say "Assad let ISIS use Syria as a base for its terrorist operations so we have to put boots on the ground in Syria to fight terrorism."