An economics, investment, trading and policy blog with a focus on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). We seek the truth, avoid the mainstream and are virulently anti-neoliberalism.
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Friday, August 21, 2015
Global Steel Prices YTD
Global #steel prices down by 23% this year, heavy losses in LatAm & China, EU prices recover.. rock bottom reached? pic.twitter.com/Gtjt34WkM0
In EU, at current exchange rates they are lower vs. global competitors. Meaning that the producers don't need or can keep pushing down the prices. So if they cannot keep lowering the prices of their products, the euro may bounce and appreciate again vs. the dollar.
Though, there may be interest rates hikes in other currency areas, I would also expect selling of euro-denominated assets, and buying of dollar-denominated assets, pushing the euro down again.
So at this point we will have to wait and see, if there is yield to chase in other non-euro currency areas, due to rate hikes. My bet is that there won't be rate hikes, no matter how much the FED has been talking about it. But we will see what they do.
I'm with you I just dont see how these monetarist people could raise rates in the face of what looks like a nascent (to them) so-called "deflation" like this...
Mike thinks they are going to do it anyway... because they think ZIRP is "un-natural" or something... I wouldnt put anything past their deranged minds....
We have to watch oil.... if it breaks down into the $30's then imo we get a return to trends... and the OPEC people are in big trouble... shortages may move past toilet paper and into foods.... scary!
yeah some countries are already in a terrible shape at current oil prices. If it keeps going down Iraq will blow up as they won't have enough revenues to keep the country functioning. More chaos into the MENA is not what we need now for worldwide stability...
But it seems the War Party faction wants the world to blow up in one place or an other right now, and is determined to do it (and the Saudis may be onboard, so they keep supply up despite lower prices).
In EU, at current exchange rates they are lower vs. global competitors. Meaning that the producers don't need or can keep pushing down the prices. So if they cannot keep lowering the prices of their products, the euro may bounce and appreciate again vs. the dollar.
ReplyDeleteThough, there may be interest rates hikes in other currency areas, I would also expect selling of euro-denominated assets, and buying of dollar-denominated assets, pushing the euro down again.
So at this point we will have to wait and see, if there is yield to chase in other non-euro currency areas, due to rate hikes. My bet is that there won't be rate hikes, no matter how much the FED has been talking about it. But we will see what they do.
I,
ReplyDeleteI'm with you I just dont see how these monetarist people could raise rates in the face of what looks like a nascent (to them) so-called "deflation" like this...
Mike thinks they are going to do it anyway... because they think ZIRP is "un-natural" or something... I wouldnt put anything past their deranged minds....
We have to watch oil.... if it breaks down into the $30's then imo we get a return to trends... and the OPEC people are in big trouble... shortages may move past toilet paper and into foods.... scary!
rsp
yeah some countries are already in a terrible shape at current oil prices. If it keeps going down Iraq will blow up as they won't have enough revenues to keep the country functioning. More chaos into the MENA is not what we need now for worldwide stability...
ReplyDeleteBut it seems the War Party faction wants the world to blow up in one place or an other right now, and is determined to do it (and the Saudis may be onboard, so they keep supply up despite lower prices).