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Friday, December 4, 2015
Kamil Ahsan — If governments fail on climate change, extremists will step in
Western militaries have been on to this for some time.
what a complete load of bullshit. The left wing environmental zealots are stooping to new lows to call attention to their personal crusade. meanwhile, the vast majority is concerned with real problems: illegal immigration, islamic terrorism, rising taxes and healthcare costs.
Who to believe? Patrick Moore? Guy McPherson? The failure to limit warming to 2C renders the climate change debate moot. In other words, it's too late for mitigation measures. That leaves the question of contingency planning. So why don't people talk about that? Not enough drama in it?
AFAIC the fat lady has sung and it is time to move on.
Believe the collected data in its raw form, but don't accept data that has been 'adjusted' to fit models. The models must be ignored until they perfectly fit observed data, and even then they should not be used to predict the future but to explain the mechanism observed as best they can guess it works. We have 35 years of data. All data on temperature before 35 years, has a larger margin or error than what is being measured. We're talking about fractions of a degree when daily temperature swings are 100 times larger, seasonal swings a 1000 times larger, and cyclical swings 1000s of times larger. And the data is only for surface.
There is a need to act and change behavior but no emergency or impending doom. If people wait an extra 20 years, nothing bad happens. There is great technology in the pipeline that allow for cleaner transportation and electricity but it is important to get the technology right and not rush into bad toxic solutions (Think Tesla Batteries, First Solar).
If people can make a battery with no heavy metals, no carcinogenic residues, it is worth the wait for 5 years rather than rushing into making tons of batteries that we have to figure out how to clean up later. Solar panels that aren't made from toxic thin films that leach heavy metals into the ground, it is worth the wait. The Apple building in Arizon that went up into flames, doused all the neighbors and schools in toxic heavy metals, If they had paid for better quality, it wouldn't have been toxic. If they followed national electric code, they wouldn't have burned in the first place. Buying panels made of silicon that is not refined in developing and frontier nations so they can use cheap coal electricity and dump their sludge into sewage and rivers might be a good start. When a few early adopters act irresponsibly, it is okay. When the masses act irresponsibly, it is a disaster. Rushing into biofuels made from food was probably not the best idea, even though unexpectedly it helped reduce food surpluses dumped on Africa and allowed their farmers to prosper and kick-started their industrialization, which now has their highways jam-packed with traffic. But at the same time higher food prices probably played a part in the Arab spring uprisings and are helping to bring political stability to areas that have long been ruled by despots. Dumping solar and wind onto the grid, sounds good, but they should make it market price driven ASAP to prevent the problems we've seen in Europe and Japan where it actually boosts coal and gas use because of the spotty production. Putting the (price) onus on renewables to be more reliable, creates incentives to develop the technology and distribution.
Even though I think the climate folks are idiots, the data is clearly at odds with their message, what does it hurt to develop technologies that don't pollute? There is no fat lady in this game to sing. The important thing is to show the climatologist zealots for what they are and then keep working to fix the real problems rather than the imagined ones that are really power grabs by leftist political groups.
They are on the record that a 4C increase by 2060 will be catastrophic. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/nov/29/climate-change-scientists-4c-temperature
What more is there to say? It's a matter of finding out if the temperature prediction is correct, and if adapting to this rate of change will be as dire as estimated.
The 2C goal is toast. They can move the goalposts and keep on talking, but the world has called their bluff.
Reducing air pollution increases CO2 emissions. A cleaner combustion = more CO2. Oh the irony.
"But at the same time higher food prices probably played a part in the Arab spring uprisings..."
Yes. Rising food prices triggered food riots in Algeria and Tunisia in January of 2011, which then spread like a prairie fire. Fed QE2 preceded Arab Spring in November of 2010, prompting market participants to sell Treasuries, sell the dollar, buy equities, buy credit, and of course to buy commodities. It was all part of the same trade. Maybe the Fed should be part of the Defense Department. Think of all the regimes that were toppled and are still being toppled with the US barely having to fire a shot... well except for Libya and well now Syria.
what a complete load of bullshit. The left wing environmental zealots are stooping to new lows to call attention to their personal crusade.
ReplyDeletemeanwhile, the vast majority is concerned with real problems: illegal immigration, islamic terrorism, rising taxes and healthcare costs.
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIf Governments fail on [Liberalization policy goes here], extremists will step in.
ReplyDelete(Third times a charm)
https://www.prageru.com/courses/environmental-science/what-they-havent-told-you-about-climate-change#.Vc4sj_lViko
ReplyDeleteWho to believe? Patrick Moore? Guy McPherson?
ReplyDeleteThe failure to limit warming to 2C renders the climate change debate moot. In other words, it's too late for mitigation measures. That leaves the question of contingency planning. So why don't people talk about that? Not enough drama in it?
AFAIC the fat lady has sung and it is time to move on.
Believe the collected data in its raw form, but don't accept data that has been 'adjusted' to fit models. The models must be ignored until they perfectly fit observed data, and even then they should not be used to predict the future but to explain the mechanism observed as best they can guess it works. We have 35 years of data. All data on temperature before 35 years, has a larger margin or error than what is being measured. We're talking about fractions of a degree when daily temperature swings are 100 times larger, seasonal swings a 1000 times larger, and cyclical swings 1000s of times larger. And the data is only for surface.
ReplyDeleteThere is a need to act and change behavior but no emergency or impending doom. If people wait an extra 20 years, nothing bad happens. There is great technology in the pipeline that allow for cleaner transportation and electricity but it is important to get the technology right and not rush into bad toxic solutions (Think Tesla Batteries, First Solar).
If people can make a battery with no heavy metals, no carcinogenic residues, it is worth the wait for 5 years rather than rushing into making tons of batteries that we have to figure out how to clean up later. Solar panels that aren't made from toxic thin films that leach heavy metals into the ground, it is worth the wait. The Apple building in Arizon that went up into flames, doused all the neighbors and schools in toxic heavy metals, If they had paid for better quality, it wouldn't have been toxic. If they followed national electric code, they wouldn't have burned in the first place. Buying panels made of silicon that is not refined in developing and frontier nations so they can use cheap coal electricity and dump their sludge into sewage and rivers might be a good start. When a few early adopters act irresponsibly, it is okay. When the masses act irresponsibly, it is a disaster. Rushing into biofuels made from food was probably not the best idea, even though unexpectedly it helped reduce food surpluses dumped on Africa and allowed their farmers to prosper and kick-started their industrialization, which now has their highways jam-packed with traffic. But at the same time higher food prices probably played a part in the Arab spring uprisings and are helping to bring political stability to areas that have long been ruled by despots.
Dumping solar and wind onto the grid, sounds good, but they should make it market price driven ASAP to prevent the problems we've seen in Europe and Japan where it actually boosts coal and gas use because of the spotty production. Putting the (price) onus on renewables to be more reliable, creates incentives to develop the technology and distribution.
Even though I think the climate folks are idiots, the data is clearly at odds with their message, what does it hurt to develop technologies that don't pollute? There is no fat lady in this game to sing. The important thing is to show the climatologist zealots for what they are and then keep working to fix the real problems rather than the imagined ones that are really power grabs by leftist political groups.
They are on the record that a 4C increase by 2060 will be catastrophic.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/nov/29/climate-change-scientists-4c-temperature
What more is there to say?
It's a matter of finding out if the temperature prediction is correct, and if adapting to this rate of change will be as dire as estimated.
The 2C goal is toast. They can move the goalposts and keep on talking, but the world has called their bluff.
Reducing air pollution increases CO2 emissions. A cleaner combustion = more CO2. Oh the irony.
"But at the same time higher food prices probably played a part in the Arab spring uprisings..."
ReplyDeleteYes. Rising food prices triggered food riots in Algeria and Tunisia in January of 2011, which then spread like a prairie fire. Fed QE2 preceded Arab Spring in November of 2010, prompting market participants to sell Treasuries, sell the dollar, buy equities, buy credit, and of course to buy commodities. It was all part of the same trade. Maybe the Fed should be part of the Defense Department. Think of all the regimes that were toppled and are still being toppled with the US barely having to fire a shot... well except for Libya and well now Syria.