First accurate statement this guy has made in a while:
Evangelicals defeated Trump in IA. @McCormackJohn explains.https://t.co/PGYKgDRqEQ— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) February 2, 2016
...according to the entrance poll, evangelicals made up 64 percent of the 2016 electorate. And that pretty much explains Cruz's victory.
He won 34 percent of evangelicals, while Trump won 22 percent and Rubio won 21 percent.
Among the 36 percent of caucusgoers who aren't evangelicals, Trump took 29 percent, Rubio took 26 percent, and Cruz took 18 percent.
Cruz went all Old Testament in the last few days and drew them right in they love their Hebrew Scriptures. Much less Evangelicals in New Hampshire let's see what happens up there.
Cruz is a religious nut. Saw a clip where I thought he was going to start speaking in tongues. If he's somehow the nominee he could lose all 50 states.
ReplyDelete....Lose all 50 states in the general election.
ReplyDeleteMal its scary...
ReplyDeleteI have an acquaintance who is a local pastor of some national renown (in certain areas of social justice FD not gay bashing..) he was approached by the Carson campaign to do some consulting for them (thats a whole other story what happened there...) but he says this is the breakdown on Evangelicals in USA:
There are 80 million of them. 40 million are registered. 20 million vote.
So it is a prime target to obtain votes... lots of untapped potential votes there... some look at that drooling for the current non-voters...
Matt,
ReplyDeleteIowa needs to go away as the first primary state. The caucus thing is ridiculous. Hell it gave us two Cruz like evangelicals in the recent past, Huckabee and Santorum, who did absolutely nothing afterwards.
As for the evangelical vote going forward, I think Ann Coulter is wrong about Trump's strength regarding it. It'll be pretty monolithic for Cruz now that Iowa is in the bank. Trump is simply too liberal for that cohort.
Well he may just need to pick some off...
ReplyDeleteAnd then you have to ask why the other 60M of the Evangelicals dont even vote... maybe they are not so zealous on the paramount issues (gays and abortion) so they just stay home... and Trump can get them to come out on economic justice issues...
I should perhaps say "gays and abortion and Israel..."
ReplyDeleteOnly 130M people vote... and it is like 50/50 so 65M per side...
ReplyDeleteNation is 80% "Christian" so that is 240M total...
So there are a lot of disenfranchised Christians who dont even vote... maybe they are primarily interested in socio-economic justice and just tune out when it is all about gays and abortion and Israel...
So if Trump were to get off that bandwagon and just focus on the socio-economic justice issues he might be able to bring a lot of the disenfranchised back in...
I don't think the vast majority of Evangelical Christians give a hoot about immigration or even trade deals, which are Trumps talking points. He's too divisive for the average Christian.
ReplyDeleteBTW, That Rubio number last night is very fishy. He's easily the slimiest fish in the sea of Republicans. Fox News was peeing their collective pants in excitement over his numbers in Iowa. If that snake somehow wins the nomination, Democrats will possibility win all 50 states in the general, just as they would against Cruz.
ReplyDeleteCruz is from Texas and In Texas, anyone with a spanish last name does very well in elections regardless of ideology, party or anything. If a candidate is a republican, and if they have a spanish last name, they win, almost every time.
ReplyDeleteCould look at it this way:
ReplyDeleteUSA Christendom is 1/3 Catholic, 1/3 Evangelical, 1/3 WASPs...
Rubio got the GOP Catholics, Cruz got the GOP Evangelicals (over-weighted in Iowa), Trump got the GOP WASPs...
Christians aside, I see no way that the GOP wins in November. No way. If Trump gets the nod then neocons and swing voters who are largely media puppets work in concert to bury him. If Cruz or Rubio get the nod then the Republican base goes third party or sits home.
ReplyDeleteIn the Divided States of America no matter who wins the other half of the country is really pissed off, which lays to rest the fiction that diversity is our strength, especially as articulated by the hypocritical left..
ReplyDeletePRAISE JESUS!!!
ReplyDeleteSo, how many delegates did Cruz pick up last night? Trump? ;)
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ReplyDeleteIsn't Cruz a bit gay? Looks like he is...
ReplyDeleteTo me the most interesting events is that this may be the beginning of the end of the GOP as we know it with a split of the base.
Remember Trump said "I could work with the Democrats...", he is a deal maker. Maybe is time for a 3-party system: the establishment 'centrists' (radical corporatists) drawing from both parties, a renewed Democratic party splitting from the left, and a new real moderate party (split from the GOP by Trump). I could EASILY see a 'moderate-right' and 'left' party see working and isolating the establishment. We will see f this comes to reality somehow...
If Trump loses (which will probably) I hope he sticks around until someone reliefs him on the platform, some of his messaging will come back to beat him even if he manages to win the nomination as the democrat nominees will surely use it all against him, but part of his messaging/platform is 'salvageable' as a traditional isolationist platform.
Identity politics is going to start losing importance vs. political economy, people is not buying the garbage anymore. About fucking time if you ask me.
Split the party or end up in the wilderness thanks to the god botherers. What would Rush Limbaugh do?
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ReplyDeleteThere are only two meaningful change agents left in this election cycle: Trump and Sanders. Neither is a unifying force, as that is an impossibility in balkanized America. Other than immigration and trade policy, Trump is far more mainstream than given credit for. Sanders is the real radical if you peel back the onion. His agenda has zero chance of advancing legislatively. Trump's agenda, while unlikely to succeed, does have a chance to some degree. Nevertheless you can rest assured the Establishment will use all its considerable powers to make sure neither one of these two ever gets a sniff of a general election victory.
ReplyDelete"So, how many delegates did Cruz pick up last night? Trump? ;)"
ReplyDeleteCruz 8, Trump 7.
Only 1228 to go.
Matt Franco and co: just want to say that it is far from the case that all Evangelicals are pro-lifers and anti-gay, or even Conservative.
ReplyDeleteMarian perhaps those are a lot of the ones who stay home and dont vote...
ReplyDeleteFranklin Graham right on cue:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/Franklin_Graham/status/694556132958801920
What's Cruz's agenda? To what extent does he really believe his religious talk? I find it hard to believe he actually believes any of it. Washington hates him, so what his deal? Is he just a big corporate whore?
ReplyDelete" Is he just a big corporate whore?"
ReplyDeleteAfter NH and SC it won't matter what his agenda is. The race will be between Trump and the Establishment darling, Rubio.
Joe if you're an atheist or agnostic then you might not really understand these people... (not a criticism...)
ReplyDeleteCruz is a fundamentalist Christian. He believes every bit of his religious talk. Mainstream America will shudder at his Biblical literalism, not to mention his eschatological views, I'm sure. Iowa will be his shining moment. All downhill from there.
ReplyDeleteCruz seems very phony and gives me the creeps. I just get the sense that he's a psychopath that's good at manipulating people. He seems intelligent, I don't think you can be a star Princeton debater without being very smart, so naturally I assume he doesn't really believe the religious stuff and has other motives.... Maybe I'm giving him way too much credit.
ReplyDeleteHis voters, sure, I think they actually believe the religious stuff..
`What do you think about the claims of Microsoft rigging the the vote in Iowa see http://bit.ly/204VRXQ, http://bit.ly/1X1g6Wt, http://bit.ly/1PeB5Qk.
ReplyDeleteWe have both Bernie Redditors and DailyStormer/Polacks united on this issue. I still think everything is entirely rigged for Empress Hillary who has said she gonna out do Merckel with no less than 100 million "refugees" for the United States which will end the United States as we know it.
We are going for full globalism and this election and our elites will smash populism once and for all. I forgot who said but these is a great quote about how our elites have now retain power but displacing the people is the people resist this democratic anarcho-tyranny and stupid "new leftist" failed to understand that this demographic displacement with lumpens is the otherside of the antidemocratic neoliberalism and that "the "new left" was always neoliberal.
`What do you think about the claims of Microsoft rigging the the vote in Iowa"
ReplyDeleteScott Adams (Dilbert comic author) talks about this exact thing at his blog today..... he's a big Trump guy. Not necessarily a guy that agrees with Trump but a guy that thinks he is going to win.
Beverly Mann, Why I think Clinton did not win the Iowa caucuses:, Angry Bear.
ReplyDelete