The IMF is up to its old tricks.
A vote to leave the European Union would deliver a “negative and substantial” blow to the UK economy, the International Monetary Fund has warned.
The fund said that a Brexit would “permanently lower incomes”, as it could mean that the Government will have to implement further austerity in order to balance the books. The comments were made in the IMF’s Article IV report, laying out what it sees as the risks faced by the UK economy.
The IMF’s staff identified the risk of an EU exit as the “main near-term economic uncertainty”. While the body suggested that the pound “could act as a buffer”, falling in a manner that would boost the competitiveness of British exports, that depreciation would not be enough on its own to offset the negative impacts on investment, consumption, employment and growth.
Weaker growth, which would weigh on tax revenues, might require the Government to implement tougher fiscal austerity, said Phil Gerson, the IMF’s UK Mission Chief.
The fund said that a Brexit would “permanently lower incomes”, as it could mean that the Government will have to implement further austerity in order to balance the books. The comments were made in the IMF’s Article IV report, laying out what it sees as the risks faced by the UK economy.
While Mr Gerson declined to comment on George Osborne’s “Brexit Budget”, a suggestion from the Chancellor that he would slash public service spending and raise taxes following a vote to withdraw from the EU, the IMF official did say that there would “need to be an adjustment”.What was that about the IMF having turned a corner? Same old, same old. Neoliberal globalization under transnational elites. National sovereignty and democracy are so 18th to 20th century. Time to move on. Fear higher taxes to balance the budget rather than the loss of national sovereignty and democracy. Right.
The Telegraph
Brexit would deliver 'negative and substantial' hit to the UK economy, warns IMF
Brexit would deliver 'negative and substantial' hit to the UK economy, warns IMF
Peter Spence, economics correspondent
Has the IMF ever in its history been right about anything?
ReplyDeleteThankfully, most people see right through all the scaremongering, or are immune to it after decades of rightwing nonsense in the tits and arse tabloids, the racist tabloids and the neoconservative "quality broadsheets" that pretend to be newspapers. The only unfortunate thing about the UK "exiting" the EU is that all the running has been made the right, whether in the shape of the EUphile and opportunistic charlatan Boris Johnson, neoconservative madman Michael Gove or the racist UKIP.
The left is nowhere to be seen, or have been willingly brainwashed by the neoliberalistas who tell them that the EU can be transformed and democratised. This is very concerning. The only other worrying thing is the allegedly high number of people who have not made up their minds and may be swayed as many are by remaining with the status quo. Anecdotally, I've only met two people who are for remaining in the EU and they were dipshit Green Partyers who when challenged didn't know anything about anything, so the most recent polling of 45% wanting to remain in the EU doesn't ring true.
I could become a conspiracy theorist and say the financial system would punish the UK for leaving, but that might not be the case, it could punish the UK without there being any conspiracy.
ReplyDeleteWhat this really means is that there can be no democracy because we have to go with the flow. The flow being the financial system owned by the One Percent.
For a country to increase its standard if living it needs to be fully integrated into world trade system, and so the rich globalists can dictate the rules. And so in Europe they will privatise all the railways giving it to the financial elite. Then the One Percent will make all the profits and so taxes will rise on ordinary people to make up for lost revenue. So the people of Europe who don't want privatisation have no choice. And when the taxes go up the neoliberals will say we they we need to privatise the health service too, to give more value for money, etc. This is their propaganda.
If a country is not locked into the world financial system it could suffer and poorer countries have been destroyed when they didn't play by the rules.
Although not being fully integrated into the global elite financial system could cause a country to become poorer, being within the financial system it will become poorer anyway as the rich global elite scour the world for the cheapest labour to boost profits.
Many countries are left with no choice but to toe the neoliberal line. And everyone in the world will get poorer as the financial elite gets to own everything. But I can see how MMT can rescue us from this Orwellian nightmare.
MMT is amazing, and it's the opposite of neoliberalism. The people who study it tend to be compassionate, very intelligent, and relaxed. It's a highly sophisticated system which I see as modern, like the latest technology we have. The libertarians will be blown out of the water by it.
I tend to be an optimist so this might be a stage we need to go through. Modernization has brought some benefits, and neoliberalism does have a politically correct side, which may have been forced upon it. So there is less racial discrimination now, more equal rights for women, with better job opportunities, and equal pay. The physically disadvantaged have more rights too and can get better jobs. And we have a economic system that can generate incredible wealth because the technology is so good now, but we need to move away from neoliberalism.
We are also near World War 3 and the military technology is scintillating. Russia and China are trying to escape from the Western neoliberal financial system, but the West is posturing to destroy them. They want to use their financial system to own everything in those countries as well.
If we survive this, we would could one day reduce nuclear weapons again and end the threat of the complete destruction of our beautiful planet. With neoliberalism ended, and with our fantastic technology, we could end poverty, stem population growth, and have a more relaxed economic system where the hourly week gets reduced. We will need to renationalise the essential services and the natural monopolies so the public gets to own them, not the One Percent, and then they will be run at cost as a service to the public and private sector.
Proper Keynesianism was never tried as the ruling elite watered it down to become neo-keynesianism. But with MMT we could end up with a fantastic economic system based on true Keynesianism. With a more relaxed capitalist system, we will be happier and more easy going too. But the ruling elite don't want this, they want harsh capitalism with everyone going ten to a dozen, making them extremely rich while everyone else gets poorer. We have to beat them.
Kaivey,
ReplyDeleteIf we do vote to exit this godawful mess, I think the UK's political elites will indeed make us suffer so as to reenter the EU. And it would probably be on different terms to those we have at present: no rebates, ditching the pound, fiscal union, EU army, the whole shebang. The pro-EU establishment are not just going to roll over and die. They're preparing for war. Don't think they're not.
Thankyou John. I still haven't made up my mind, you could be right. The financial elites will all always win, one way or another.
DeleteThe bankers have made finance so complicated, that they are saying to the politicians to leave it all to then, because only they can understand it. The EU is being run by technocrats.
The technocrats are dismantling Europe and lining their pockets.
John said:
ReplyDelete"If we do vote to exit this godawful mess, I think the UK's political elites will indeed make us suffer so as to reenter the EU. And it would probably be on different terms to those we have at present: no rebates, ditching the pound, fiscal union, EU army, the whole shebang. The pro-EU establishment are not just going to roll over and die. They're preparing for war. Don't think they're not."
They can't much longer. There are these right wing nationalist forces becoming popular in EU, these forces will revolt. The left is nowhere to be seen so no beef with the right wing nationalists. They have an important mission to accomplish, they are the only ones in Europe to go against this madness in any meaningful way politically. Same thing in America, It is nationalism against internationalism that is behind Trump support.
Kaivey, that doesn't mean you should vote to remain! Holy shit, I'm not trying to talk you out if it! Vote to leave, but understand the fight that is only just beginning. I have absolutely no doubt that the EUphiles are going to make life as unpleasant as they can. Then the cry will be rejoin the EU and all our problems will vanish, and better still adopt the euro.
ReplyDeleteThe European neoliberal establishment may get a well deserved bloody nose if we choose to exit the EU circus freak show, but these people cannot compute the word "NO" as an answer. It's the nature of the beast. What Kyle Reese said of the terminator can be said of the EU: "That EU is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity or remorse or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead."
Kristjan, the left is indeed nowhere to be seen, as you can count on it to always be or arguing over identity politics, but with a vote to leave the UKIPers and the like will in all likelihood have scuppered their chances with the electorates. Even if they haven't, what they offer is even more rightwing neoliberalism, which will then empower the EUphiles in their endeavour to get us to return to Zombieland.
Trump is nasty and a loudmouth who can't help but say stupid shit almost every day but he's not a nationalist in the sense that is commonly believed. He won't bring back American jobs even if he could, which he can't because Congress will decide that. He won't start any trade wars, notwithstanding his characterisation of the Chinese as "motherfuckers". The only good thing about Trump is that he's not as bellicose as Hillary, who really scares me, and he's not as hyper-neoliberal. Trump's peddling some arithmetically, economically and politically impossible stuff: socialised medicine, beefing up social security, swinging tax cuts, trade surpluses and balancing the budget. All politicians lie or at least exaggerate but this is something else. Unfortunately, given the two awful choices, he's not going to win. The neoliberal establishment is cementing its position in Washington. What the Trump phenomenon does show, however, is that there'll be a bigger, badder Trump-like figure in the future, and one who may win if he can restrain himself from saying stupid shit.
Trump will win John. There is no way he won't beat Killary.
ReplyDeleteKristjan,
ReplyDeleteI'm adopting "Killary" from now on. It's perfect. I have very grave doubts that Trump can pull it off, and as horrible as he seems to be, I'm cheering on the anybody-but-Killary candidate from this side of the pond.
Unless he says something even more demented than he already has. I no longer think that his obnoxious electioneering is playing to the crowds in order to get elected. The people he surrounds himself with are worrying.
Yet it seems no matter how awful he is, Killary outdoes him, and more worryingly she does it with such calmness, like the psychopathic killer whose heart rate never goes above 70 beats per minute as he's plucking out your eyeballs.