The last minute actions against Russia can be viewed minimally as an effort to guarantee continuity of US foreign policy and maximally as a setting up a President Trump.
Obama knows that Trump can simply undo what he has done unilaterally as soon as he takes over. So the question is why is Obama doing this.
Obama is presenting his successor with a dilemma. President Trump either maintains the Obama anti-Russian policy, in which case the effort was successful. Or he doesn't and his presidency is torpedoed if he negates it, making him look soft on Russia or even giving credence to the claim that Trump is a "Russian stooge" planted by Putin, who controls him. This would undercut DJT, possibly to the point of impeachment by a Democratic congress people united in their hate fro him and GOP NeverTrumpers that would prefer Mike Pence as POTUS so they can get on with business as usual. without having to deal with outsiders.
Is President Obama preparing a poison chalice for both Presidents Trump and Putin, and by extension also President Assad, under the guise of being tough on Putin's Russia for alleged "crimes."
One need not be a cynic or a conspiracy theorist to view it that way. Politics ain't beanbag, as they say, and after all, the stakes are world domination.
Watch the narrative on this in the New York Times and the Washington Post. Oh wait, I don't touch either of them even with rubber gloves. But their narrative is reported elsewhere, and I'll link to that.
TASS
Trump may lift anti-Russian sanctions - White House official
"why is Obama doing this."
ReplyDeleteSetting up a defense in their criminal/civil trials...
Tom, they are in BIIIIIIIIGGG trouble... all lawyered up...
ReplyDelete"who knew what and when did they know it?"
Trump could go to the public, who are less than enamored with all this bear baiting.
ReplyDeleteHere:
ReplyDelete"JENNIFER PALMIERI, CLINTON COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: I'm a Catholic. I don't recognize that e-mail that we saw. And this whole effort is led by the Russians. The Russians want to orchestrate an attack, we believe, as noted by the statement from the director of national intelligence that they are behind the timing and manner of the leaks. And we are not going to do any more to comment on aid their efforts."
http://www.foxnews.com/transcript/2016/10/12/what-wikileaks-dump-reveals-about-clinton-campaign/
"I dont recognize that email... blah blah blah Russians planted it.... blah blah blah......."
Maybe get a dumb DC jury... Has to be first line of defense...
Here might be working:
ReplyDeletehttp://hotair.com/archives/2016/12/27/yougov-poll-52-of-democrats-believe-russia-tampered-with-the-vote-totals-to-get-trump-elected-president/
Up to 52%...
And Trump supporters believe Clinton is involved in a pedophiliac pizza ring...
ReplyDeleteDemocrats in general are in very deep denial. I doubt they can pull out of it. It's an extremely dark time for them. They just imploded big time.
ReplyDeleteWatch the narrative on this in the New York Times and the Washington Post. Oh wait, I don't touch either of them even with rubber gloves. But their narrative is reported elsewhere, and I'll link to that.
ReplyDeleteA suggestion: watch the respectable, very serious, middle class/middle age, white, male, left Yank bloggosphere: economic professors.
Democrats in general are in very deep denial. I doubt they can pull out of it. It's an extremely dark time for them. They just imploded big time.
I'm sure there's more than a little truth in that: in many cases their reaction belies a lot of sincere hysteria.
Ultimately, those people were born to be useful idiots. It's a mix of ineptitude, stubbornness, and arrogance.
But I am a cynic: I suspect more than a few of them are deliberately lying.
Read this:
ReplyDelete"Russia Hacking the Election the Inside Story” by George Eliason.
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2016/12/russia-hacking-election-inside-story-2.html
[The writer lives in the Ukraine. Short bio here: http://www.opednews.com/author/author58313.html]
McCain and Graham and McConnell are gunning for Trump.
ReplyDeleteYeah I think Trump will come up with something unexpected yet again to get around the hysteria these Democrats and even some of the Republicans are feeling right now. I
ReplyDeletefind him to be an unpredictable character who is sometimes actually ahead of the game and willing to counterpunch and throw this logic right back at his opponents so they will second-guess each other.
Tom, if you were to change the minimally and maximally around that would be closer to the institutional nature of foreign policy: it's predominantly grand strategy, grandiosely named "the national interest", but with the occasional personal malevolence worked in.
ReplyDelete"The last minute actions against Russia can be viewed MAXIMALLY as an effort to guarantee continuity of US foreign policy and MINIMALLY as a setting up a President Trump."
Although in this case a good argument can be made that upsetting a Trump presidency is the same thing as "the national interest" as seen through Washington's lens of hegemony/imperialism.
Obama's parting shot is to try and kneecap Trump as much as possible. Obama remains a Caesar par excellence: a crafty CEO of the empire to the bitter end but not without stabbing what he considers his bungling successor in the front for all imperial Washington to witness. In his mind he's something of an Augustus to Trump's Caligula.
You guys are over thinking this...
ReplyDeleteIf Obama says "it was Russia!" and they take it to a DC jury trial they will all walk like OJ...
Matt, I'm all for not over thinking matters, but the Washington elites are apoplectic. It's not like they're hiding their contempt for him. They think he's a rich dunce who had it not been for moneybags daddy would be another sleazy middle manager at a small real estate company in nowheresville Oklahoma. Trump isn't an insider and hasn't been schooled in this stuff, and he doesn't seem to get any of it, no matter how they try to kick it into his head. He doesn't understand foreign policy. There's some sort of mental block, like learning C++ or Japanese. He thinks about everything like a small businessman, whether its about Nato members paying more or repatriating profits amongst other such stupidities.
ReplyDeleteThe foreign policy elites are clearly rattled. They saw what Dubya did, and they fear this could be Dubya squared or worse. A bungling incompetent like Dubya was eventually reined in during his second term - the first and second terms were chalk and cheese. Trump may not back down from any of his bungling. Supporting Brexit? That was the loudest warning possible that this man does NOT understand foreign policy as it has been understood by just about everyone. Wilbur Ross has the same mentality: Brexit's great! Wall Street can steal the City of London's fraud!
Can you imagine these schmucks coming up with Bretton Woods or the Marshall Plan? If team Trump had been faced with post-war Europe, they'd have seen it as a great opportunity to steal the lead off roofs or pull off some bank heists.
Three weeks and counting until the Wacky Races begin!
Be thankful they're not into the aluminum siding business. Tin men.
ReplyDeleteNobody here cares about any of that stuff anymore... look at the as you call them the "foreign policy elites" they are as old as fossils... ready to croak any day... Kissinger, Zbig, Peterson, Soros, Neo-cons, Merkel, etc.... all WW2/Cold War relics ...
ReplyDeleteGen next here could care less about any of that stuff... that whole place over there could fall into a giant crevice opened up in the earth and nobody here under 60 would care...
Trump represents these people... and they are growing in numbers and influence...
Check out the alt-right to the ROW: "we dont need you and we dont want you..." and Alt-right HATES the baby boomers... absolutely HATES them... cant stand the baby boomers...
US is transitioning into a more inward looking posture.... ROW better get wise to it and figure it out...
"the Marshall Plan? "
ReplyDeleteTrump is putting a domestic 'Marshall plan' together... all of those a-holes over there can go f themselves... this is what he ran on and he won... so that is what he is going to do...
Here:
ReplyDeleteTrump: ‘Wouldn’t It Be Nice If We Actually Got Along With Russia and China?’
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/penny-starr/trump-wouldnt-it-be-nice-if-we-actually-got-along-russia-and-china
change gotta start somewhere...
Everyone hates the baby boomers... including the boomers.
ReplyDeleteTrump: ‘Wouldn’t It Be Nice If We Actually Got Along With Russia and China?’
ReplyDeleteDidn't Obummer say the same thing, and that he wanted to press the "reset button"? Everybody says that. That's the political equivalent of apple pie. Although in Obummer's case, the right went berserk (more berserk than usual) that the prez said he liked apple pie! The goddamn uppity son of a bitch said he liked apple pie! Next he'll say he likes the national anthem! As smart as they come, that fella Louie Gohmert.
Wouldn't it be nice if Congress got rid of the debt ceiling? Wouldn't it be nice if we stopped training and financing jihadis? Ad infinitum. When team Trump meets team Putin they'll find - surprise! - that "getting along" means precisely nothing. America has so-called "interests". Similarly Russia. What happens when those "interests" clash, as they so often do?
It isn't a case of Kissinger, Brzezinski, the liberal elites and the demented neocons are all old school and aren't relevant to the desires of 21st century Joe Shmoe. When have the interests of Joe Shmoe ever been a top consideration? If they were, the Shmoes would have had a Canadian- or European-style universal health care system in place decades ago. The Kissingers and the Brzezinskis are merely the face of organised power interests within the country. These power interests don't disappear because Trump says so. He's going to have to deal with them, and they own the country. Trump may run the country in some capacity, but they OWN it. That will mean he'll have to accommodate them in some fashion. He of all people should understand the distinction: he's bought and paid politicians his whole life.
America has so-called "interests". Similarly Russia. What happens when those "interests" clash, as they so often do?
ReplyDeleteWhat will likely happen is that Trump and Putin will seek to determine what the other person needs and is willing to give to get it. A deal will be struck and then they will both have to sell it at home.
Trump will be able to do some things unilaterally, but is likely to need congressional acquiescence in other things. So more deal making.
The Trump will have to sell the deal to the US public, which is divided. I suspect he will just forget about the opposition and sell it to his people and those on the fence.
I don't see see any monumental problems in this on this side.
I doubt Putin will have a great deal of trouble selling his side either.
Of course, there will be huge opposition and people trying to throw spanners in the works.
Promises to be a good show.
Tom, I hope you're right. You have to wonder what would have happened if Ukraine happened under his watch? Suppose the elected president of Ukraine was toppled in a coup - without US interference and wackos like Victoria Nuland orchestrating things - and then Russia responded as it did. Trump would just think of it as a real estate problem, and no one would see this as weakness?
ReplyDeleteThings do happen, although admittedly not that much happens without superpower interference. Trump's reactions are going to be interesting. Another attempted revolution in, say, Bahrain, where there's a huge US naval presence, would force Trump's hand. For no reason anyone can discern he's gone totally wacko over Iran now near non-existent nuclear programme, making up all kinds of claims contrary to the intelligence he's getting from almost twenty different agencies. He's gone full retard over China: apparently China has to ask Trump's permission to build military bases! And who the hell knows what his health care reforms are going to be, other than they'll be "terrific".
One thing is for sure, this is going to be the greatest reality TV show EVEEEEER!!!!!!! No end of scandals too! Those two sons of his promise to be good entertainment...something not quite right about them...
There's speculation that Trump's younger son is autistic.
ReplyDelete@ John
ReplyDeleteIf you remember, the US State Department was ahead of the curve on the Ukrainian coup and there is reason to think that it was involved in fomenting and funding it. Then president immediately jumped on board and gave the new government recognition even though the transfer of power involved deposing a democratically elected government. The MH17 incident, which many believe was manufactured, sealed the deal. After that, the US backed up the Ukrainian version of what was going on in the country vis-à-vis Russia, in the face of evidence that disconfirmed the US narrative but was never reported in the American media.
Would Trump and his people have done (orchestrated) that? I suspect not. Trump, I believe, is about business, not liberal interventionism, neoconservatism or world domination iaw the Wolfowitz Doctrine. But we'll have to wait and see. Obummer orly disappointed. Maybe Trump will too.