The aim of such language and threats is usually to goad the other party into some overt act that can than be used as justification for "retaliation". But none of the countries Trump mentioned is prone to such behavior. They will react calmly - if at all.
There was essentially nothing in Trump's threats than the claptrap the last two U.S. presidents also delivered. Trump may be crazy, but the speech today is not a sign of that.
The stressing of sovereignty and the nation state in part one was the point where Trump indeed differed from his interventionist predecessors.
But its still difficult to judge if that it is something he genuinely believes in.
I think Trump genuinely believes in sovereignty and the Westphalian order, as do China and Russia. But President Xi is in charge in China and President Putin is in charge in Russia. President Trump is not in charge in the US, and the people that are charge don't believe in it. US policy ahs been and is international interventionism, and Donald Trump is not a position to change that. So the good portion of the speech rings hollow.
I doubt that anyone in power abroad thinks that the US ruling elite has any intention of backing away from longstanding US interventionist policy, President Trump's words notwithstanding. Previous US presidents mouthed similar "liberal" sentiments, while intervening to "preserve the liberal world order." President Trump's threat in the speech indicate that he is of the same mind, regardless of the hype he dispensed. And no, the US is not going to recognize spheres of influence other than its own, in spite of the danger of not doing so.
"But President Xi is in charge in China"
ReplyDeleteAnd looks like if he doesn't up his game he may have millions of dead North Koreans rotting on his doorstep....