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Tuesday, July 24, 2018
Pepe Escobar — ‘Tweet of Mass Destruction’ ratchets up tension on Iran
Trump trying same m.o. on Iran as he used on North Korea — make an offer they can't refuse. But Iran is not North Korea.
“I have an idea for them. Both the U.S. and the E.U. drop all Tariffs, Barriers and Subsidies! That would finally be called Free Market and Fair Trade!”
Matt, this had already been said if one reads the fine prints.
Trump's economic team is convinced that the US can win an economic war with the rest of the world and make all nations vassals by outcompeting them in their own economies, with US finance leading the way. They have let this slip on occasion without featuring it.
This is their "neutron bomb" that destroys the enemy but not the enemy's infrastructure.
This Iran thing might be related as Trump wants to basically cut into Iran’s current market share in Europe and China and Japan and India... to increase US exports and reduce the perennial trade deficit....
Iow Trump might interpret Iran as saying “if you take our market share we will use our military “... which Trump interprets as a threat to his business plans to compete to balance the trade and increase us economic growth...
So if Iran tries anything he will probably just obliterate their oil/gas infrastructure and then the row will have to make it up with us exports...
The risk is global depression if Iran closes the straight, which apparently it can do. Iran also has a pretty strong cyberwarfare capability, and it will attack the infrastructure of countries that support the US, like Germany.
BTW, this is the traditional way to treat bullies even when they can beat you. You make it so expensive it is not worth it to them, i.e., deterrence.
The could also obliterate North Korea, but probably lose Seoul and Tokyo in the process. That would create an enormous economic wake that would not be fixed overnight.
These kinds of things are game-changers, unlike Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, and Syria.
Americans like wars that can be won quickly and decisively. Wars in Korea and Iran would require lots of boots on the ground for a long time and it would involve major casualties. That's not sustainable politically in the US.
DJT is not going to do anything that the military tells him is leading to a quagmire or a global depression.
They would have to be very sure of their ability to neutralize the Iranian capability and resolve the issue without have to field an army on the ground there and then an sizable occupation force.
Based on what he campaigned on, I think it highly unlikely that DJT would want to go there. There are no big easy wins, and there is no way that the US would not get bogged down.
Same in North Korea.
Both the North Koreans and Iranians are dug in.
Both can easily field over a million determined fighters defending the homeland. See jBasi. The volunteers number 11 million and the staff is 90K.
And there are states big enough to make it so costly to the US to use force that it is not a rational option.
The only card the US has in such cases is economic warfare (slow strangulation).
The problem is that like animals, even weaker entities will strike if cornered. You don't want to take the chance of being bitten by a cobra (nuclear war) or a rat (serious infection or even rabies or bubonic plague).
The military knows this, of course, and will explain it to DJT — if he is willing to listen. If not, well, ….
For example, all the political people were telling Trump to strike Russia in Syria when they did the Tomahawk strike. Mattis explained to Trump that he had to be ready to lose an aircraft carrier with 5000 US service personnel on board.
That would result in nuclear escalation.
DJT wisely decide to forget that, and the US "deconflicted" with Russia in the attack.
Iran is on top of a lot people's hit list and some of those people DJT needs in 2020, like Sheldon Adelson, who expects him to deal with Iran decisively and remove it as a threat to Israeli hegemony in the region, which is the foundational objective of Zionism. The US establishment is on board with that for a variety of reasons, and it is also a neocon and war hawk priority (McCain).
I agree that DJT is mostly interested in the numbers, viewing the US a corp and himself as CEO and Chairman.
However, there are also political realities to take into account and he not only realizes it but is doing quite well in addressing them, first to get elected and then to survive an going attempted coup, which is not over. He knows that if he missteps, he could be gone, and he also is already involved in the 2020 campaign.
In addition, his foreign policy, which is run by his trade policy to great degree, risks a global slowdown if it goes wrong, and it could implode into a global depression.
This is a dicey game. Juggling with knives with a whole lot of people throwing eggs at you and otherwise trying to distract you in any way possible.
Tom looks like you were right:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1021909900941815809?s=21
“I have an idea for them. Both the U.S. and the E.U. drop all Tariffs, Barriers and Subsidies! That would finally be called Free Market and Fair Trade!”
Matt, this had already been said if one reads the fine prints.
ReplyDeleteTrump's economic team is convinced that the US can win an economic war with the rest of the world and make all nations vassals by outcompeting them in their own economies, with US finance leading the way. They have let this slip on occasion without featuring it.
This is their "neutron bomb" that destroys the enemy but not the enemy's infrastructure.
It's called "opening up."
This Iran thing might be related as Trump wants to basically cut into Iran’s current market share in Europe and China and Japan and India... to increase US exports and reduce the perennial trade deficit....
ReplyDeleteIow Trump might interpret Iran as saying “if you take our market share we will use our military “... which Trump interprets as a threat to his business plans to compete to balance the trade and increase us economic growth...
So if Iran tries anything he will probably just obliterate their oil/gas infrastructure and then the row will have to make it up with us exports...
#winning
Iow iran will not be allowed to threaten US legitimate business interests or limit business opportunities by military force...
ReplyDelete
ReplyDeleteNot a slam dunk.
The risk is global depression if Iran closes the straight, which apparently it can do. Iran also has a pretty strong cyberwarfare capability, and it will attack the infrastructure of countries that support the US, like Germany.
BTW, this is the traditional way to treat bullies even when they can beat you. You make it so expensive it is not worth it to them, i.e., deterrence.
ReplyDeleteThe could also obliterate North Korea, but probably lose Seoul and Tokyo in the process. That would create an enormous economic wake that would not be fixed overnight.
These kinds of things are game-changers, unlike Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, and Syria.
Americans like wars that can be won quickly and decisively. Wars in Korea and Iran would require lots of boots on the ground for a long time and it would involve major casualties. That's not sustainable politically in the US.
The business angle might be Trumps trigger point... but I still think they would have to strike militarily first... then he would counterpunch..
ReplyDeleteDJT is not going to do anything that the military tells him is leading to a quagmire or a global depression.
ReplyDeleteThey would have to be very sure of their ability to neutralize the Iranian capability and resolve the issue without have to field an army on the ground there and then an sizable occupation force.
Based on what he campaigned on, I think it highly unlikely that DJT would want to go there. There are no big easy wins, and there is no way that the US would not get bogged down.
Same in North Korea.
Both the North Koreans and Iranians are dug in.
Both can easily field over a million determined fighters defending the homeland. See jBasi. The volunteers number 11 million and the staff is 90K.
Yeah, I know. "Kill them all." Keep dreaming.
Should be Basij
ReplyDeleteLonger term the gulf states have to abandon the current sea routes and get a pipeline over to the Red Sea anyway...
ReplyDeleteIe avoid Iran and Yemen and African pirates...
If us are withdrawing (no USN to secure the sea lanes) then Arabs are going to have to get it to the other side of the Arabian peninsula over land...
Bottom line here is Trump won’t let any foreign state dictate US trade policy thru military force or perhaps threat of such...
And there are states big enough to make it so costly to the US to use force that it is not a rational option.
ReplyDeleteThe only card the US has in such cases is economic warfare (slow strangulation).
The problem is that like animals, even weaker entities will strike if cornered. You don't want to take the chance of being bitten by a cobra (nuclear war) or a rat (serious infection or even rabies or bubonic plague).
The military knows this, of course, and will explain it to DJT — if he is willing to listen. If not, well, ….
For example, all the political people were telling Trump to strike Russia in Syria when they did the Tomahawk strike. Mattis explained to Trump that he had to be ready to lose an aircraft carrier with 5000 US service personnel on board.
That would result in nuclear escalation.
DJT wisely decide to forget that, and the US "deconflicted" with Russia in the attack.
I think Trump will just press on with his Trade policy Tom... if Iran somehow physically interferes with him then it’s on...
ReplyDeleteNot that simple, Matt.
ReplyDeleteIran is on top of a lot people's hit list and some of those people DJT needs in 2020, like Sheldon Adelson, who expects him to deal with Iran decisively and remove it as a threat to Israeli hegemony in the region, which is the foundational objective of Zionism. The US establishment is on board with that for a variety of reasons, and it is also a neocon and war hawk priority (McCain).
I agree that DJT is mostly interested in the numbers, viewing the US a corp and himself as CEO and Chairman.
However, there are also political realities to take into account and he not only realizes it but is doing quite well in addressing them, first to get elected and then to survive an going attempted coup, which is not over. He knows that if he missteps, he could be gone, and he also is already involved in the 2020 campaign.
In addition, his foreign policy, which is run by his trade policy to great degree, risks a global slowdown if it goes wrong, and it could implode into a global depression.
This is a dicey game. Juggling with knives with a whole lot of people throwing eggs at you and otherwise trying to distract you in any way possible.