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Tuesday, October 15, 2019
Kurds face stark options after US pullback Pepe Escobar
So Assad stays, Russia has a greatly expanded influence in the region, Turkey can cleanse an area and dump off some its Syrian refugees, and Iraq turns towards China, Russia, and Iran.
Am I incorrect in saying that this is pretty much complete capitulation from Washington? I don't think this was what the PNAC crowd had in mind in the early 2000s.
And Saudi Arabia has shown itself more vulnerable than they previously thought. I'm having a hard time finding any success whatsoever from the last 15 years of intervention.
1. ISIS was defeated (not by the SAA or Russian air strikes, as the article falsely claims), although the seeds for another Sunni-based uprising remains. 2. The bad actors responsible for the development of ISIS have had their influence in the Levant region considerably reduced.
Bad news is it remains relatively easy for bad actors to spark another war in the Middle East.
On your second point, yes it's true. But that's considered a failure from the US's point of view, since it's the Saudi's and US that were the most culpable for the rise of ISIS.
US middle east strategy is a failure, the operation against ISIS is a success. I count them as small victories. The suffering caused by colonialism and imperialism will continue. That's a failure of our system of nation-states and the geopolitics that ensue. In the end, we're just chimpanzees in a hierarchy.
So Assad stays, Russia has a greatly expanded influence in the region, Turkey can cleanse an area and dump off some its Syrian refugees, and Iraq turns towards China, Russia, and Iran.
ReplyDeleteAm I incorrect in saying that this is pretty much complete capitulation from Washington?
I don't think this was what the PNAC crowd had in mind in the early 2000s.
And Saudi Arabia has shown itself more vulnerable than they previously thought. I'm having a hard time finding any success whatsoever from the last 15 years of intervention.
There are 2 successes:
ReplyDelete1. ISIS was defeated (not by the SAA or Russian air strikes, as the article falsely claims), although the seeds for another Sunni-based uprising remains.
2. The bad actors responsible for the development of ISIS have had their influence in the Levant region considerably reduced.
Bad news is it remains relatively easy for bad actors to spark another war in the Middle East.
On your second point, yes it's true. But that's considered a failure from the US's point of view, since it's the Saudi's and US that were the most culpable for the rise of ISIS.
ReplyDeleteUS middle east strategy is a failure, the operation against ISIS is a success. I count them as small victories. The suffering caused by colonialism and imperialism will continue. That's a failure of our system of nation-states and the geopolitics that ensue. In the end, we're just chimpanzees in a hierarchy.
ReplyDelete