Coronavirus: Not Looking Good — Yves Smith

 

Update on what is known. A lot remains unknown or unclear, especially in the fog of panic. There is also considerable misinformation.

The push is on to isolate the disease to prevent pandemic. This creates an impression that the worst is already happening when it is not. The worst case is a mutating virus and as far as is known, this is not happening — yet. 

Let's keep this is perspective though. The likelihood of contracting coronavirus is still very low in most places, and the likelihood of dying from it lower. The likelihood of contracting one of the ordinary garden-variety flus, and perhaps dying from it, is vastly higher. Existing flus are already at epidemic levels in most areas, especially crowded ones. 

The same precautions regarding good hygiene against ordinary flu and coronavirus are recommended, except there is as yet no vaccine for coronavirus. But the risk most face is from the ordinary flus that happen to be active this year. 

The medical community is advising to get a flu shot if you haven't, even if it seems late in the season. Flu season lasts through March and the tail can be the worst. But flu vaccines don't guarantee that one won't contract a case of the flu. 

Good hygiene is the first line of defense, along with limiting possible exposure. This is what the medical people do. Of course, medical personnel cannot avoid being exposed to cases they are treating, so they wear surgical masks. These are not yet popular in the US, but they have become a staple other parts of the world, especially in Asia where population density is high.

This is already having a huge economic impact in China as swaths of the country virtually shut down. The likelihood of this spilling over into the global economy is rising, especially if coronavirus "goes viral" internationally. 

Naked Capitalism
Coronavirus: Not Looking Good

Yves Smith