A 40-Day Plan to Start Recovery — Bill McBride

Based on the experiences of other countries, it appears the number of cases per day (and deaths per day) will peak about 2 to 3 weeks after well observed shelter-in-place orders are issued (some areas are reporting less than 2 weeks - that would be great).

In some areas of the United States, shelter-in-place orders were issued a week or more ago. In some states and communities, orders have still not been issued.

Based on the experience in China, it appears the recovery can start in about 40 days after a national shelter-in-place - if certain rules are in place.

So here is a suggested 40-day plan to start recovery:

Calculated Risk
A 40-Day Plan to Start Recovery
Bill McBride