We have just seen the beginning of post-COVID economic data, and the numbers are literally off the charts. My feeling is that aggregate numbers will be meaningless, and we will need to look at industry-level data. I just wanted to look a bit ahead, to the post-lockdown future. My main concerns revolve around the small business sector, which I fear will be taking a bigger hit than larger businesses. The issue is that small businesses are a major driver of employment -- and we are likely to start with elevated unemployment levels, even after the "re-start" phase hits....Bond Economics
A Recovery With Crippled Small Businesses Looks Awkward
Brian Romanchuk
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