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Saturday, May 2, 2020
Reinfection false positives
Some good news here:
Well this is good news that so far there is no evidence of reinfection!...Tests in recovered patients found false positives, not reinfections, experts say https://t.co/a0eof1KuJG
Listeners to the excellent free podcast This Week in Virology (TWIV), hosted by virologist Vincent Racaniello, have known this for months. ;)
Vincent Racaniello @profvrr Apr 30
What have I been saying for months about purported reinfections with SARS-CoV-2? There are none! RT-PCR detects pieces of RNA not infectious virus!! https://bit.ly/35jJYYZ Tests in recovered patients found false positives, not reinfections, experts say.
"“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.”
That’s the warning from the Word Health Organization in a new scientific brief. It comes in direct response to some governments suggesting that the detection of antibodies to the virus could serve as the basis for an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate.”
I'm going to start to write a new book titled: "The Myth of Immunity" or "The Immunity Myth"...
or maybe "The Fantasy of Immunity"... or "The Immunity Superstition".... or "The God of Immunity".... or "The Immunity Conspiracy".. or "The Random Chances of Immunity"...
The truth is we don’t KNOW. It is known with other viruses that immunity post infection is NOT guaranteed forever. We have tested less than 1% of the worlds population. Thinking that anyone has THE answer to this question is the ....... zenith of mongoloid reasoning.... to quote a friend. The fact is some people tested positive a second time. EVERYONE knows there are false positives to any test, the people reporting those results know it too but if you think it’s impossible for someone to get Covid19 a second time...... you are a fool.
You have a very strange idea of what science is for a guy who claims a scientific approach to life.
No Matt you have one biologist who says from the data he has the probability is that you can’t, part of that data is a prior understanding of how human immune systems react to viral infections....... news alert.....it is t exactly the same in everyone. We KNOW not every person forms antibodies at same rate.
Another has evidence that makes him think it’s possible you can get reinfected. You think that “science” should only give absolute assurances. It doesnt work that way. This virus has only been known of in humans for 7 months max.
Cancer drugs that have been shown to work might not work in you.......... that’s life.
I am not much of a scientist, so I will not comment on that part of the discussion, but, having worked for the UN in Vietnam and China, I think that Matt has got the wrong end of the stick. The simple fact is that the UN operates in every member country ONLY with the consent and dispensation of the host country. And that goes for every UN member. UN authorities, and that goes right up to the Resident Representative, may have their doubts about data provided to them by the host country, but are not in a position to contest that data. Unless, of course, a UN agency has access to independent sources of data (and usually if they do that will be announced outside the country). In most cases, agencies like the WHO operate in a gray area, where they try to bridge the gap between official data and observed events, and that goes as much for UN agencies in developing countries, democracies, developing nations, despostisms, etc. To say that the WHO is a China "lackey" is to miss the point entirely.
The problem is that imho the quoted sentence - "“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.” is NOT that very rare thing - good scientific English.
The meaning, made clear in the detailed brief above it was extracted from, is really "currently no guarantee " (as Greg says) or "[completely] protected" later on in the sentence. No evidence was doubtless written to "sound scientific", but is palpably crazy; recovery alone is significant partial evidence.
It is natural and easy enough to eliminate the silly, obvious reading of that sentence, but still, it is better to make the qualifications rather than write sentences whose precision is obviously spurious. A common case where common or standard scientific writing is less, not more exact; more ambiguous and needing interpretation - than ordinary English discourse. :-).
Agree 100% with Marian Ruccius. It's their job to be everyone's (and thus no ones's) "lackey".
"To say that the WHO is a China "lackey" is to miss the point entirely."
The U.S. can quickly get even with the Chinese by simply bombing one of their embassies in, say, a European capital. Not really a crazy suggestion when you consider that there is precedence for this ;)
Folks, we are all learning about this virus and its related disease literally as we speak. New virus news is also new for us docs.
This is way different than when AIDS started out in the early '80's. Then the docs learned from lectures and journals. The public could not be or stay so closely informed. Today with the internet and global communications, it is a whole new world!
So often now the politics gleans what it wants from new virus related news, and then presents its case. Typically distorted enough through its own lens to convince half of our people.
Listeners to the excellent free podcast This Week in Virology (TWIV), hosted by virologist Vincent Racaniello, have known this for months. ;)
ReplyDeleteVincent Racaniello @profvrr Apr 30
What have I been saying for months about purported reinfections with SARS-CoV-2? There are none! RT-PCR detects pieces of RNA not infectious virus!! https://bit.ly/35jJYYZ Tests in recovered patients found false positives, not reinfections, experts say.
Better tell the Darwin moron douchebags at the China lackey WHO:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/25/coronavirus-live-updates-china-singapore-cases-italy-numbers.html
"“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.”
That’s the warning from the Word Health Organization in a new scientific brief. It comes in direct response to some governments suggesting that the detection of antibodies to the virus could serve as the basis for an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate.”
Here I'll do what you guys do:
ReplyDeleteI'm going to start to write a new book titled: "The Myth of Immunity" or "The Immunity Myth"...
or maybe "The Fantasy of Immunity"... or "The Immunity Superstition".... or "The God of Immunity".... or "The Immunity Conspiracy".. or "The Random Chances of Immunity"...
Beat you guys to it... who needs Biochemistry...
Matt
ReplyDeleteThe truth is we don’t KNOW. It is known with other viruses that immunity post infection is NOT guaranteed forever. We have tested less than 1% of the worlds population. Thinking that anyone has THE answer to this question is the ....... zenith of mongoloid reasoning.... to quote a friend. The fact is some people tested positive a second time. EVERYONE knows there are false positives to any test, the people reporting those results know it too but if you think it’s impossible for someone to get Covid19 a second time...... you are a fool.
You have a very strange idea of what science is for a guy who claims a scientific approach to life.
Trump said that the virus could easily have been contained in China. He’s an expert as we know.
ReplyDeleteHe didn’t explain why the US couldn’t contain it. Must have been the Chinese who sabotaged the US attempt to contain it.
You can still get the flu even if you get a flushot... docs say it won’t be as severe...
ReplyDeleteIs that good enough?
Greg I have one Biologist saying I cant get reinfected and another Biologist saying I can...
ReplyDeleteWhich one do I believe?
I have one group of Economists telling me we're out of money and another one telling me were not out of money...
Which one do I believe?
Its the same thing...
there shouldnt be this disagreement...
ReplyDeleteNo Matt you have one biologist who says from the data he has the probability is that you can’t, part of that data is a prior understanding of how human immune systems react to viral infections....... news alert.....it is t exactly the same in everyone. We KNOW not every person forms antibodies at same rate.
ReplyDeleteAnother has evidence that makes him think it’s possible you can get reinfected. You think that “science” should only give absolute assurances. It doesnt work that way. This virus has only been known of in humans for 7 months max.
Cancer drugs that have been shown to work might not work in you.......... that’s life.
I am not much of a scientist, so I will not comment on that part of the discussion, but, having worked for the UN in Vietnam and China, I think that Matt has got the wrong end of the stick. The simple fact is that the UN operates in every member country ONLY with the consent and dispensation of the host country. And that goes for every UN member. UN authorities, and that goes right up to the Resident Representative, may have their doubts about data provided to them by the host country, but are not in a position to contest that data. Unless, of course, a UN agency has access to independent sources of data (and usually if they do that will be announced outside the country). In most cases, agencies like the WHO operate in a gray area, where they try to bridge the gap between official data and observed events, and that goes as much for UN agencies in developing countries, democracies, developing nations, despostisms, etc. To say that the WHO is a China "lackey" is to miss the point entirely.
ReplyDelete"Immunity passports" in the context of COVID-19 gives more detail.
ReplyDeleteThe problem is that imho the quoted sentence - "“There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from Covid-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection.” is NOT that very rare thing - good scientific English.
The meaning, made clear in the detailed brief above it was extracted from, is really "currently no guarantee " (as Greg says) or "[completely] protected" later on in the sentence. No evidence was doubtless written to "sound scientific", but is palpably crazy; recovery alone is significant partial evidence.
It is natural and easy enough to eliminate the silly, obvious reading of that sentence, but still, it is better to make the qualifications rather than write sentences whose precision is obviously spurious. A common case where common or standard scientific writing is less, not more exact; more ambiguous and needing interpretation - than ordinary English discourse. :-).
Agree 100% with Marian Ruccius. It's their job to be everyone's (and thus no ones's) "lackey".
"To say that the WHO is a China "lackey" is to miss the point entirely."
ReplyDeleteThe U.S. can quickly get even with the Chinese by simply bombing one of their embassies in, say, a European capital. Not really a crazy suggestion when you consider that there is precedence for this ;)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bombing_of_the_Chinese_embassy_in_Belgrade
Folks, we are all learning about this virus and its related disease literally as we speak. New virus news is also new for us docs.
ReplyDeleteThis is way different than when AIDS started out in the early '80's. Then the docs learned from lectures and journals. The public could not be or stay so closely informed. Today with the internet and global communications, it is a whole new world!
So often now the politics gleans what it wants from new virus related news, and then presents its case. Typically distorted enough through its own lens to convince half of our people.
Immunity might last 4 months... and run out just in time for a 2nd virus wave in the fall. One of the benefits of flattening the curve.
ReplyDelete