I haven't been posting on Covid-19 since Naked Capitalism Links is the go-to place. But this link (ht Automatic Earth) is interesting.
Elemental
A Supercomputer Analyzed Covid-19 — and an Interesting New Theory Has Emerged—A closer look at the Bradykinin hypothesis
Thomas Smith
“ Covid-19 is like a burglar who slips in your unlocked second-floor window and starts to ransack your house. ”
ReplyDeleteNice figurative language... anybody there know what is really going on?
What is the average age of fatalities? 80?
ReplyDeleteI prefer the Boomer Remover Hypothesis... find the culprits.
Here is the scientific article reporting it.
ReplyDeleteA mechanistic model and therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 involving a RAS-mediated bradykinin storm-Michael R Garvin, Christiane Alvarez, J Izaak Miller, Erica T Prates, Angelica M Walker, B Kirtley Amos, Alan E Mast, Amy Justice, Bruce Aronow, Daniel Jacobson
It's targeting old people to an unusual degree. Investigate this virus for evidence that is was engineered in a laboratory.
ReplyDeleteYou have to investigate if the virus could have gained the novel recombinative characteristics via random chance...
ReplyDeleteDarwin people just assume it is possible without proof... and all these people seem like big Darwin people...
“ Although pre-existing hypertension is a reported comorbidity for COVID-19, recent reports indicate hypotension is highly associated with COVID-19 patients once in the hospital ”
ReplyDeleteWell if they have hypertension then they are probably already on blood pressure pharma that LOWERS blood pressure... then the covid causes a response that apparently decreases it again ... membrane flow may then reverse and you get the inflammation..
Would be better if the people didn’t have to take pharma to lower blood pressure before presence of the covid
Pete what it looks like is these people were doing gain of function research on this class of virus thinking along these lines:
ReplyDelete“Well... this virus could evolve from the apes by random chance mutation someday soooo what we should do is make the changes ourselves right now by splicing the genes ourselves in a lab ... and then study how to defeat it once we create it so then when it finally does evolve from the apes by random chance mutation we will be ready for it...”
Something like that ... then it escaped from the lab and here we are...
I blame Darwin... Trump looking to blame Chinese... Cuomo blaming Trump... etc...
”I blame Darwin... Trump looking to blame Chinese... Cuomo blaming Trump... etc...”
ReplyDeleteYep blame game is your thing.
Still can't understand why mass dosing of Vitamin D isn't happening. Here's another bunch of evidence:
ReplyDeleteEffect of Calcifediol Treatment and best Available Therapy versus best Available Therapy on Intensive Care Unit Admission and Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19: A Pilot Randomized Clinical study
which makes me wonder whether both sides are trying to use this for political ends.
An experiment to find out what the public will tolerate, does have a political end: social control.
ReplyDeleteIt’s rather called “cause and effect” in Science.... not the figurative “blame game!”...
ReplyDeleteHey S, did you see I checkmated you people .... AGAIN .... where Wray has formed a new sect within MMT (Kansascityism) that advocates for non ZIRP for retirement savers?
Neil the whole thing is a political hoax....
ReplyDeleteDems created it to trash the trump economy ... now trump using it to trash Chyna...Etc...
"Neil the whole thing is a political hoax....
ReplyDeleteDems created it to trash the trump economy ... now trump using it to trash ...Etc..."
WTF is this crap? His country is approaching 200,000 deaths and he's joking around.
Matt, seriously, for your sake and your family's get some immediate mental help. No shame in that, Matt.
Help for Mental Illnesses
If you or someone you know has a mental illness, is struggling emotionally, or has concerns about their mental health, there are ways to get help. Use these resources to find help for you, a friend, or a family member
https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/find-help/index.shtml
"His country is approaching 200,000 deaths"
ReplyDeleteIt's a big country. People die.
When you look at the numbers correctly, you find that number of people who have died of Covid-19 is vanishingly small. Really tiny. And that the infection fatality ratio is rapidly heading down to about the same as a bad flu. Which of course was flagged up by Iceland months ago with their IFR of 0.13%.
It's way past time to stop acting emotionally over this and start looking at the actual numbers.
"Whilst everyone is panicking about the ever-increasing number of cases, we should be celebrating them. They are demonstrating, very clearly, that COVID is far, far, less deadly then was feared. The Infection Fatality Rate is most likely going to end up around 0.1%, not 1%."
https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04/covid-why-terminology-really-matters/
It's those that can't calm themselves down that need to avail themselves of mental services. This is now getting beyond a joke.
Imagine a province being ruled by decree by a premier with a college diploma in appliance repair...
ReplyDeleteGermans have been on the streets, chaffing at the restrictions. Will they be our vanguard?
ReplyDeleteI'm glad NeilW removed his post.
ReplyDelete150+K of excess deaths in the USA in 6 months due to Covid 19 is a very serious problem.
ReplyDeleteWell if they have hypertension then they are probably already on blood pressure pharma that LOWERS blood pressure...
———————————
Geeeee ya think so?......people with hypertension taking anti hypertensives.... great detective work there Matt
Would be better if the people didn’t have to take pharma to lower blood pressure before presence of the covid
————————
No Matt, people with hypertension need to take “pharma” to control their BP. It is now being discovered that a particular class of anti hypertensives known as ACE inhibitors are essentially acting in same manner on blood vessels as the Corona Virus does.
Please don’t give that advice to people you know who are on BP medication.
Stick to the “science” 😂😂 of accounting.
I haven't removed anything.
ReplyDelete150,000+ deaths is always depressing, but it still represents an extremely small number of people in a country of 328,500,000 people.
Bearing in mind that 675,000 people died of the Spanish flu in 1918 with a much smaller population 116,000 of the Hong Kong Flu again with a much smaller population.
But the estimates of order of magnitude difference is way out. If we're unfortunate it may be twice as bad as flu. The difference is Covid tends to kill older people rather than the young. It's status as the "Boomer Remover" is well established amongst teenagers.
It's time to get things in perspective.
Couple things Neil.
ReplyDelete1) the 675,000 is during the whole pandemic, almost two years vs almost 200,000 in a little over 6 months with Covid
2) today the 1918 pandemic would kill far far less, they didn’t even have routine IV fluid hydration nor the level of hospital beds per 100,000 population. Covid is killing with the best in modern medicine available to well over 65% of developed world AND we have limited large interactions greatly for half a year. No concerts, no large sporting events, fewer church gatherings
I think you are missing some perspective as well
Matt, everybody in biology "believes" in evolution for the reason explained in the title of this famous paper. Not believing evolution is like not believing you have eyes.
ReplyDeleteTheodosius Dobzhansky- Nothing in Biology Makes Sense except in the Light of Evolution- American Biology Teacher 35- 3 (1973)
It might change your mind. Was arguing with someone once, quoted from it, showed my quote wasn't faked and gave a larger context to it, and we came to complete agreement.
The Pandemic is real, as are the excess deaths this year.
ReplyDeleteMy wife and I had it, and it nearly killed her. She's still not done with it. If I wasn't a doc she wouldn't have survived! And we lost one of our fellow local Docs a few back.
The sudden excess deaths in the USA is very real. The graph is part way down:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
The pandemic is real, the response to it is out of proportion.
ReplyDeleteEarly on, medical communities all over the world had to drop what they were doing and prepare for all the unknowns of the Pandemic. In the US looking at China and Italy, we had no choice but to drastically alter our acute medical capabilities and then recommend that our communities do what they could to limit spread.
ReplyDeleteIn my own rural medical community, we knew that we would not be immediately hit, but with limited Pandemic related supplies, equipment and trained personnel, we decided just like thousands of other medical communities, that we just could not wait.
In Canada, health is a provincial responsibility. Some of the things they did in the first two months were inept, if not criminally negligent.
ReplyDeleteNow that it is September, their response has become a farce. It is also anti-democratic. Yet the people put up with it.
Greg,
ReplyDeleteCongress was told 3 million could die. They were wrong by an order of magnitude. That is the best modern medicine offers - which is far worse than people seem to believe. They had no clue how to respond to this virus and made a load of honest mistakes. We're getting much better very quickly as we learn how deamaethasone, Vitamin D and the like help. (And that certain anti-malarial don't).
Limited interactions *don't reduce infections by that much* as we see from Peru, Belgium, Argentina and other areas. They slow things down at best.
There is a world of difference between a response for 3 million dead, and one for 200,000 or so. Unless you have a population that is somehow permanently on the edge of a panic attack and can't cope with the realities of life.
Neil,
ReplyDeleteAt best ??!! Slowing them down IS THE POINT at this point!! 300,000,000 population, 1% death rate = 3,000,000 dead. That’s not unreasonable. They weren’t told 3 million would die this summer . “They “. aren’t wrong yet
Vit D is certainly interesting .....Decadron?.... steroids have always shown promise with inflammatory conditions but steroids usually have limitations. They help at certain stages with certain things but past a certain point steroids become a hinderance.
@Peter
“The pandemic is real, the response to it is out of proportion.”
And you know this how? What should the response have been to an unknown pathogen that early measurements pointed to as highly transmissible and way more lethal than flus.
When being asked to help in decisions affecting hundreds of millions it’s better to be cautious and use common sense. Keeping a distance around strangers , washing your hands frequently and self isolating when you do t feel well are all common sense things regarding highly transmissible diseases
What should the response have been to an unknown pathogen that early measurements pointed to as highly transmissible and way more lethal than flus.
ReplyDeleteContainment.
Canada was one of many developed countries who did not act in time, and failed to contain the outbreak. They were unprepared.
China is the country that had to deal with an unknown pathogen. By the time our so-called leaders decided to act, there was enough data to guide their response. What was supposed to have been an effort to 'flatten the curve' has turned into a protracted fear-mongering campaign.
And to top it off, officials knew at the outset that the elderly were susceptible, yet they sent Covid patients to nursing homes. As a result, 80% of deaths occurred within those facilities. A national scandal for which no one is being held accountable.
Thanks to the various states of 'emergency', provincial legislatures have been suspended, and we are being ruled by decree by imbeciles. How very convenient.
Darwin preceded the Perioduc Table by what half a century?
ReplyDeleteThe discipline of biochemistry by what 100 years?
1/3 of biochemists don’t believe it and rising:
https://thefederalist.com/2019/04/16/one-third-biologists-now-question-darwinism/
Now maybe we will start to solve some health problems instead of always trying to defend Darwin’s failed theory...
Half of these NIH papers I’m reading start with some sort of defense or affirmation of Darwin... what does that have to do with it?
How about some Chemistry maybe?
“ Slowing them down IS THE POINT”
ReplyDeleteGreg “slowing down” is a figure of speech here and is not what is really happening.... what is really happening?
Keeping viral load down? Dosing of the virus is being reduced? Thru distancing?
Many people still being tested positive for the virus but not getting sick.... sounds like dosing to me... if people are just exposed to a small dose they are either asymtimatic or get a small immune response for a day or two...then they are fine ...q
Maybe if they got their blood pressure down thru proper diet and exercise instead of a “magic pill” they wouldn’t get all the inflammation...
Correlation studies are not biochemistry ....
ReplyDeleteGreg when a patient comes in with the Covid and they are on hypertension pharma do they keep giving that person the pharma while they are being treated for the Covid? I’d assume they do...
ReplyDeleteHere there are people already looking into this ... makes sense....
ReplyDeletehttps://cen.acs.org/biological-chemistry/infectious-disease/Rethinking-role-blood-pressure-drugs-in-COVID-19/98/i20
The blood pressure medication people will ofc say it doesn’t matter blah blah blah...
How about: “Eat less! ... move more!.., .”. anybody?
Always looking for the magic pill....
Vit D
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/foundmyfitness/status/1301967441002598400?s=21
Good one on HVAC system issues:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/drericding/status/1300777854603591680?s=21
“Green!” HVAC from the climate nutter people allowing build up of virus toxins to lethal levels..
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So Peter, the methods of containment involve 1) testing testing testing- you gotta know who has it and where to contain it
ReplyDelete2) contact tracing- you gotta know who all you’ve been around and where they might be to contain it. 3) isolation of those who are known positive- you gotta keep those infected separate til they are over it/dead/non contagious
Sounds like exactly what is being preached by Fauci et al currently. Containment, flattening the curve pretty much both rely on the same arsenal of tools. This is all common sense I see no fear mongering from Fauci- be sensible and considerate is all they are preaching. Take the risks from this pathogen seriously. It’s not the flu
The ridiculousness is coming from the “no mask flaunters“, the Covid truthers etc
So Peter, would you if in charge. 1) immediately suspend any suggestions from authorities that keeping your workspace clean is encouraged
2) immediately permit concerts, indoor sporting events with no suggestions for any limits on 3) apologize because none of this crap the last 6 months was the least bit necessary
I don’t see fear from the people who are taking precautions I see fear in the people who are screaming at workers doing their job, fear that their way of doing things is being questioned at present. They can’t fathom that they might be part of the problem, so they just tell people the “problem” is made up, a hoax etc
I’ve got 7 4” MERV 13 filers strapped to 20x20 floor fans running 24/7 at work and I got a particulate meter set up...
ReplyDeleteWhen we started the meter was at 12 micro grams per m3 now it hardly goes above 3 and is most often 2 or below... when we come in in the morning it is below 1...
$20 for the filter and $20 for the fan... 40 bucks...
2350 sq ft ... 9 ft ceilings... 7 systems...
ReplyDelete$280 bucks total... (7 x $40)....
ReplyDeleteContainment measures would have had to be taken last January. It took two months to shut down air travel; by then it was too late.
ReplyDeleteThe strategy from that point was mitigation and herd immunity. In Canada, this was accomplished in the period between March and June. In late July, there was a second wave... of stupidity by provincial officials. In Nova Scotia, they enacted mandatory mask laws... as if that would justify re-opening the borders to tourism.
There will be no apologies until we hold these people accountable.
Matt, HVAC is uncommon in private residences. We keep our windows open or head to the coast. This may be why there are zero cases this summer. If only it stayed warm year round...
ReplyDelete“ HVAC is uncommon in private residences. ”
ReplyDeleteNot in what were termed the “hot zones”...
Pete you are fine up there in the Maritimes...
ReplyDeleteCan't complain... from May until end of September, the weather is fine :)
ReplyDelete