This article demonstrates the importance of recessions in driving down the r* estimate produced by the Holsten-Laubach-Williams (HLW) methodology. Although there are other algorithms that can be used to generate a r* estimate, my argument is that they should have similar qualitative properties. In the case of the HLW estimate, my argument is that the nature of the recession in 2008 is a major contributor to the fall in r* thereafter. The underlying problem is that real-world data does not match the probability distribution assumed in the algorithm.Bond Economics
Effect Of Recessions On r* Estimates
Brian Romanchuk
[My apologies for the off topic comment, Tom, Brian.]
ReplyDeleteLet's not kid ourselves with any thoughts that the race is tightening in the swing states. Come Tuesday, "counting day", Trump is going take a shellacking. And Trump knows it. The guy is so frustrated, he's confused Joe Biden for Hillary lol
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
· 2h
Joe Biden called Black Youth SUPER PREDATORS. They will NEVER like him, or vote for him. They are voting for “TRUMP”.
And if he doesn't, we shall never trust the polls again..
ReplyDeleteGreek if he wins again you guys are going to need professional counseling...
ReplyDeleteDon’t try to tough it out and do it cold turkey.... go see somebody...
I'll give them counselling... I call it ROFL therapy.
ReplyDelete