CDC research notes that the birth rate in the US has been below replacement level since 1971. It is now a problem across all major racial groups including Hispanics, non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and non-Hispanic Asians. All have below replacement birth levels.…
You can ignore the conspiracy theory stuff at the end of the article. Interesting numbers otherwise.
Zero HedgeKilling The Future: COVID Madness Will Lead To Half A Million Fewer US Births In 2021
Steve Watson via Summit News
Some good news for a change.
ReplyDeleteExactly peter.. why would a below replacement birth rate be a problem? Places are crowded the way it is..
ReplyDeletewhy would a below replacement birth rate be a problem?
ReplyDeleteAbsent offsetting gains in productivity, decreasing population growth implies decreasing economic growth owing to labor contribution and also aggregate demand.
This has long terms effects as the aged population becomes larger than the younger generations. Without offsetting technological innovation, productivity is adversely affected.
Another recourse is importing labor from abroad to make up the shortfall, but with world population falling that can't work for all, and then there are also non-economic issues with immigration.
The challenge could be met with addressing productivity by increased automation and robotics, but that results in distribution issues, too.
In other words the status quo is changed and a lot of former planning for the future is thwarted by changing demographics.
The only cohort that decreasing population growth seems to favor economically is underdeveloped nations and regions with birth rate exceeds economic opportunity. The result is a Malthusian problem of excess population.
What shortfall of labor? It also means plenty of jobs for younger people since the retired population still needs goods and services. We already live in a world where 1% of the population produces all of the food (and we those away like 30 or 40% of it) and 10% or so produce all the physical goods and with a giant proportion doing bullshit jobs, like being an insurance coder or a wal-mart greeter.. the world will be just fine with a slowly shrinking population, maybe labor will actually get some bargaining power back. The population obviously can't grow forever.
DeleteJapan seems to be dealing with it, and they aren't as open to immigration as a solution.
ReplyDeleteGains in productivity would be a welcome development.
This is an old issue. So-called experts have been fretting over this for decades, and formed part of the rationale for Canada's immigration policy.
Climate change is a more acute threat to the sustainability of the current system, than an aging population.
The challenge could be met with addressing productivity by increased automation and robotics, but that results in distribution issues, too. Tom Hickey [bold added]
ReplyDeleteNot so much if we had ethical finance but the MMT School, so far, doesn't believe in ethical finance but instead would INCREASE privileges for the banks and, by extension, for the rich, the most so-called credit worthy.