Ubiquity, Complexity, And Sandpiles — John Mauldin

 Yes, I know, John Mauldin. for those who may not know, John Mauldin is a permabear and debt phobe, but this article is worth a read. There is a certain logic to it that is grounded in reality (complexity), and he doesn't focus on sovereign debt. Interestingly, he mentions Hyman Minsky and Paul McCulley. 

Mauldin's analysis in the article is based on Mark Buchanan's Ubiquity, Why Catastrophes Happen, which makes it quite interesting, which draws on complexity theory and chaos theory.

One area of his concern is the recent actions of the Fed and other central banks to prevent small crises through propping up weakness — recall "extend and pretend." This results in weaknesses building in the system, resulting in systemic risk rising. Until the dam breaks from over-patching unpredictably through emergence that cannot be foreseen using conventional modeling nor can conventional modeling help much in addressing such a crisis when it occurs. 

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Ubiquity, Complexity, And Sandpiles

John Mauldin