It’s as if the Fed did two 0.25% rate increases over the last two months:
The Treasury yields making new 2021 highs today:
— Brian Chappatta (@BChappatta) November 22, 2021
2s
3s
5s
7s pic.twitter.com/EUgvwtQBLV
MMT 101: “all prices are a function of what the government allows their banks to lend against things”; so it’s as if the Fed has delegated authority to the member institutions to increase the short term risk free rate by 0.5%
So now of course the NPVs of the banks govt bond assets are falling and resulting in regulatory capital deficiency (C=A-L):
JPMORGAN, GOLDMAN SACHS TOLD TO BOOST CAPITAL BUFFERS - WSJ
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 23, 2021
So you Art Degree lefties big “neoliberal conspiracy!” continues apace where these crafty geniuses lend munnie to monetarist moron inflationista asshole speculators to sell the bonds at lower prices to make a few pennies on interest in the quarter which reduces the value of their regulatory required govt security assets by $10Bs and requires them to raise even more capital to dilute themselves even more…
Yes these crafty “neoliberals!” are really geniuses and getting over on us again everyday! 😂
Matt do you think that could be a reason why central banks in the west are not going to increase rates for the foreseeable future as it would cause too much capital requirements for banks?
ReplyDeleteI would not say that … YET…
ReplyDeleteSeems like for now they won’t raise due to “competitive disadvantage” iow they think if they raise then their currencies will increase and make them “less competitive” in global trade…
4q 2018 is instructive the Fed raised 3x by 0.25% and after the December increase equities were collapsing into Christmas Eve also Trump was on their assess big time so they stopped and quickly reversed in January…
But they don’t understand any of this …
So for now if they don’t do it I would assume they think they don’t want to create competitive disadvantage…
Otoh if they do start raising we will probably quickly get a 20% equity collapse and they will then have to stop and reverse as it will be hard for them to think “inflation!” with equity prices and other asset prices collapsing…
I think they understand the SLR issue well enough to prevent another 40% collapse from Reserve asset additions but they don’t really understand how their risk free rate can also cause a collapse in bank capital…